Best Potential Trade Packages, Scenarios and Destinations for Arron Afflalo
With even the faintest of playoff hopes and dreams slipping away, the Denver Nuggets should now move firmly in the direction of a large-scale rebuild. And if that's the route of choice, one of the key moves will inevitably involve trading Arron Afflalo before the Feb. 19 deadline, especially since he can opt out of his contract and skip town at the end of the season.
Afflalo has been on the block for a while now, but as Christopher Dempsey reports for The Denver Post, there's been one major sticking point in any potential deal:
"The Nuggets are holding firm to seeking a first-round pick from teams wanting to trade for shooting guard Arron Afflalo, according to NBA sources.
There have been no takers, although interest remains high for Afflalo’s services. Teams don’t want to relinquish a first-rounder for a player that might walk on them at the end of the season. Afflalo has a player option for the final year of his contract.
"
ESPNLosAngeles.com's Ramona Shelburne confirmed this sentiment, tweeting out, "Word is Denver's asking price on Arron Afflalo has been high so far. They got a lot for [Timofey] Mozgov, so why not?"
A first-round pick may be the asking price, but not all of the potential deals featured here will include one.
After all, it may be unrealistic for the Nuggets to expect that much in return for Afflalo's services. He's on what could be an expiring deal now (player option) and only netted the Orlando Magic Evan Fournier and a pick deep in the second round when they traded him to Denver this past summer.
Affllalo's current team may be able to swing something to a desperate contender or playoff hopeful just before the deadline. But even if they have to go back a bit on their initial price estimates, there are still great options out there.
Charlotte Hornets
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Charlotte Hornets Get: Arron Afflalo, 2017 second-round pick
Denver Nuggets Get: Lance Stephenson
This may go entirely against the Denver Nuggets' apparent desire to add draft-day selections. Not only are they failing to get one back from the Charlotte Hornets, but they're actually giving up a second-round pick in the deal.
No matter.
The Nuggets need potential stars, which gives them a need to gamble on the upside of Lance Stephenson. Remember how highly coveted he was this summer? He's been a terrible fit with the Hornets, completely forgetting how to shoot from the perimeter and looking entirely uncomfortable on both ends of the court, but he's still an intriguing commodity.
Still only 24 years old, Stephenson is just one year removed from averaging 13.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game for the Indiana Pacers while shooting 49.1 percent from the field and 35.2 percent from beyond the arc. And based on his career trends, it's this season that's the aberration, not his breakout campaign alongside Paul George and Roy Hibbert.
"This hasn't even been discussed within the Nuggets organization even though Shaw is a big fan of Stephenson, a player he used to coach at Indiana," writes Dempsey while suggesting the steps for a Nuggets rebuild. "But perhaps it should be."
From the other perspective, the Hornets still need shooting, even after acquiring Mo Williams and Troy Daniels from the Minnesota Timberwolves, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Afflalo can easily shore up that weakness, as he proved last year in a featured role with the Orlando Magic.
Right now, the Denver shooting guard is stuck in a system that isn't making the best use of his talents, and the same can be said about his Charlotte counterpart. Let's fix everything in one fell swoop.
Chicago Bulls
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Chicago Bulls Get: Arron Afflalo
Denver Nuggets Get: Kirk Hinrich, Doug McDermott, 2017 second-round pick
The Chicago Bulls need to win now.
Kirk Hinrich isn't making much of a positive impact this season, even if Tom Thibodeau loves to put him out on the court. Doug McDermott may be a rookie with high potential, but he's struggled to earn any minutes under a head coach that historically hates playing first-year players (McDermott's knee surgery had an impact here as well). He may be rather expendable now that Tony Snell is emerging and Nikola Mirotic is displaying even higher potential.
Why not ship them off to Denver along with a second-round pick that won't be conveyed for years?
Afflalo is capable of making a significant two-way impact for the Bulls and can easily fit in at either wing spot. Whether he's displacing an incumbent small forward in the starting lineup to form a two-headed perimeter monster alongside Jimmy Butler or leading the charge off the pine, he's a more significant asset than anything the Bulls would be giving up.
As for the Nuggets, they'd be getting their hands on another young player with long-term potential. Ironically enough, McDermott was originally a selection of general manager Tim Connelly before the Nuggets traded him for two first-rounders: Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic.
Getting all three only aids the rebuilding process, imbuing a struggling franchise with significantly more upside while opening up extra playing time for the young contributors already living in the Mile High City.
Miami Heat
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Miami Heat Get: Arron Afflalo
Denver Nuggets Get: Mario Chalmers, Danny Granger, 2017 first-round pick (lottery-protected)
The return here isn't very significant.
Danny Granger is nothing more than a throw-in acquisition so that the salaries balance in this potential deal. At this stage of the small forward's career, he's simply a bench contributor who can occasionally provide a scoring outburst. Mario Chalmers shouldn't be a starter on a competitive squad either and would be relegated to backing up Ty Lawson during the remaining time on his current contract.
For Denver, it's all about getting its hands on that 2017 first-round pick. And because there are no young, high-potential players coming back to the Nuggets, that means this move is more of a last resort—an option for Denver to fall back on if none of the other moves here work out and the deadline is only a few ticks of the clock away.
But still, something is better than nothing. And let's not forget that Denver could be left with nothing if it hangs on to Afflalo and then watches as he declines his player option at the end of the 2014-15 campaign.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat's interest should be much more obvious.
There currently aren't any natural shooting guards backing up Dwyane Wade, which is rather problematic for an aging veteran with balky lower extremities. Adding Afflalo would significantly increase the depth of this organization, even if it involves giving up rotation players at other positions.
The difference is that at point guard and small forward, the Heat have access to Shabazz Napier and James Ennis, both of whom are capable of taking on bigger roles once the men in front of them on the depth chart depart for a new location.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Oklahoma City Thunder Get: Arron Afflalo, Alonzo Gee
Denver Nuggets Get: Reggie Jackson, Grant Jerrett, Perry Jones III, Jeremy Lamb
The Nuggets aren't getting their hands on any first-round picks here.
Instead, they're racking up players with potential. Reggie Jackson has, at times, looked like an offensive stud, and it's well worth making him the centerpiece of the deal. Even if he can flee Denver at the end of the season, he may also be convinced that the city is a great stop for him during his career and sign a long-term contract to provide more of an offensive punch to the organization.
Jeremy Lamb also has plenty of untapped upside. He's been held back by Scott Brooks' unwavering insistence on keeping him glued to the bench, and we really haven't yet gotten a chance to see what the Connecticut product can do when handed a significant opportunity.
Meanwhile, Perry Jones III did have a chance to shine, and he seized it at the beginning of the season. During a three-game stretch while the Oklahoma City Thunder were decimated by injuries, Jones averaged 22.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists per contest while making more shots than he missed. Just for the possibility that wasn't a flash-in-the-pan performance, he's worth acquiring.
Even if the lack of a first-rounder goes against what we know the Nuggets want for Afflalo, the appeal of those three players—and Grant Jerrett, who's here to make salaries work and could very well be subsequently waived—trumps all.
As for the Thunder, isn't it obvious? They need to shake things up in an effort to cement themselves as a playoff team, and they're trading future assets for a player who could make a distinct contribution in the present.
In OKC's last 10 games, Jones has averaged 10.2 minutes per outing and sat out entirely during four contests. A knee contusion may be contributing to this, as he was red-flagged for that problematic joint before he was drafted. Jackson has played 20.2 minutes during the average game and seems to have fallen out of favor. Lamb has averaged 3.2 minutes per game with six DNPs, and Jerrett has played a total of eight minutes in 2015.
Afflalo alone might get as much run during the average game as the combined total of that departing quartet, and he would finally give them a legitimate, established option at the 2.
Portland Trail Blazers
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Portland Trail Blazers Get: Arron Afflalo
Denver Nuggets Get: Victor Claver, Thomas Robinson, 2015 first-round pick (top-20-protected)
Now we're getting that first-round pick involved, even though it's a heavily protected one. But at least it's coming in 2015, when the draft class should be rather deep and allow the Nuggets to help expedite their inevitable rebuilding process.
Victor Claver makes the salaries balance, while Thomas Robinson does still have some untapped potential. Though he's in his third season and playing for his third team, the former Kansas Jayhawk is only 23 years old and isn't too far removed from being thought of as an NBA-ready double-double lock. It's still a bit too soon to label him as a complete bust, especially because his per-minute numbers really aren't terrible.
This season, Robinson is averaging 10.6 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes. Last year, he was at 14 and 12.7 over the same stretch. And as a rookie? He averaged 11.4 and 10.7 per 36.
Now, an opportunity for a bit more playing time would be nice, and the Nuggets are in a position where they can take that kind of risk.
As for the Blazers, they get to add some depth.
"It's not a guy that already replicates or duplicates what we have it terms of our rotation guys," GM Neil Olshey explained during a radio interview with Trail Blazers Courtside about who he'd target in a trade, via Mike Richman of The Oregonian. "It's not going to be a starter. So we've got to find the right fit if we are going to make a move."
Olshey noted multiple times during his interview that he was pleased with the contributions he was getting from the bench, and there's no longer a glaring lack of depth. In fact, the second unit has played fairly well when given opportunities.
But there's still no established go-to scorer, a role that Afflalo can easily fill.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Feb. 11's games.
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