The Case for Every NBA Playoff Bubble Team
Nearly two-thirds of the 2014-15 NBA season is gone, and the playoff picture in both conferences is somehow fuzzier than it was in November.
Injuries, as always, have been the primary agents of chaos, turning what was a fairly stable hierarchy into a borderline free-for-all in which former contenders are in danger of missing the playoffs, and rebuilding teams are within striking distance of a postseason berth.
Health issues afflicting Paul George, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade and...well, the list could go on forever...have changed things dramatically.
Injuries aside, chemistry miscalculations by the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons contributed to slow starts that have been hard to overcome.
In an effort to keep this analysis from covering half the league, we'll limit the so-called bubble teams to those within three or fewer games of slipping into or out of the playoffs in each conference. Even with that rule in place, we've got nine squads close enough to qualify.
What follows is an optimist's take on each club's chances.
Non-Bubblers Worth Noting
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Before we get to the real bubble teams, we should mention the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks.
The former will be without Blake Griffin for a few weeks following surgery to treat a staph infection, and the latter saw Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis join Rajon Rondo among the walking wounded on Feb. 9, per SI.com. Both the Clips and Mavs have a comfy cushion between themselves and the lottery, but if we've learned anything about the cutthroat West this season, it's that things can change in a hurry.
There's no room for slippage, and key injuries (especially Griffin's) could push the already shaky Clippers, who started February with a four-game losing streak, much closer to the No. 8 spot than they'd prefer to be.
It's too early to panic, but a little concern is probably appropriate.
West: Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns are currently in possession of a playoff spot, but it sure doesn't feel like they have much to celebrate.
This team has been on the wrong end of rotten luck all season long. Its four losses on buzzer-beating shots (so far; the year is young) are the most since the 2006-07 Utah Jazz, per ESPN Stats & Info.
What the Suns have going for them is backcourt talent, and against some pretty long odds, they've figured out how to get the most out of Isaiah Thomas, Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. At times, all three share the court together, which creates all sorts of matchup problems for the opposition.
Phoenix's three-point guard lineup has posted an offensive rating of 115.5 this year, the highest figure of any Suns three-man unit to have played as many minutes (171 through Feb. 9), per NBA.com. That figure—115.5—would easily be the highest overall offensive rating in the league.
The Suns aren't going away, and their bad luck, hopefully, will level out over the season's final weeks. Relatively healthy, hard to stop on offense and playing at the NBA's second-fastest pace, per NBA.com, Phoenix is no joke.
Neither are the two teams chasing it, though.
West: New Orleans Pelicans
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A nasty fall against the Chicago Bulls on Feb. 7 resulted in a sprained right shoulder for Anthony Davis and, accordingly, a bevy of question marks surrounding the New Orleans Pelicans' playoff chances.
Though if we're focusing on punctuation, the exclamation point is probably best for explaining New Orleans' road ahead: If Davis isn't healthy, the Pelicans are finished!
With AD on the floor, New Orleans is a playoff team, complete with a net rating of plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. When he sits, its net rating of minus-8.7 makes the team, basically, the New York Knicks.
That's a swing of 13.3 points per 100 possessions, which is massive.
Davis' availability against the Indiana Pacers on Feb. 11 is uncertain, and it's also unclear if he'll suit up for the All-Star Game Feb. 15, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. If ample rest is what it takes to get Davis back to feeling like himself, the Pelicans should gladly sit him.
The return of Jrue Holiday (out with a stress reaction), a little tighter leash on Tyreke Evans at the end of games and the sudden, inexplicable re-emergence of Eric Gordon will give New Orleans a shot down the stretch.
But Davis matters more than anything else. If he's healthy, the Pellies have a shot.
West: Oklahoma City Thunder
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When the Thunder dug an early hole without Durant and Westbrook, we all scrambled to do the math on what it'd take for them to climb out of it. It took 49 wins to reach the playoffs in the West last season, and there was a point in early February when OKC would have needed to win 75 percent of its remaining games to reach that total.
That may not be necessary now; it appears the No. 8 seed will require something like 45-47 wins. But even if it were, the Thunder suddenly look like a team capable of pulling off a frightening surge.
We never should have doubted them.
Per Matt Moore of CBSSports.com: "And yet, Monday night on a back to back in Denver, short of wind and of centers, the Thunder reminded everyone why you absolutely cannot count them out until they are mathematically eliminated. They're just too damn talented."
It's that simple.
OKC has the reigning MVP in Durant and the league's most pathologically competitive, occasionally borderline feral athletic wonder in Westbrook. This is not a team; this is a force of nature (it's the Thunder, after all), one that is now healthy enough to cause natural disasters in the West.
The Thunder are easily the most fearsome bubble team in either conference.
East: Charlotte Hornets
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Owners of the best defense in the league since Jan. 1, per NBA.com, the Charlotte Hornets have managed to climb as high as the No. 7 spot in the East after starting the year with a 6-19 record.
Despite Kemba Walker's absence and Lance Stephenson's poor fit, Charlotte looks capable of hanging tough in the bottom half of the playoff race.
Reinforcements are on the way, too. Mo Williams and Troy Daniels are incoming from the Minnesota Timberwolves as part of a trade completed Feb. 10, per NBA.com. Those two, and Williams in particular, could provide some offensive punch to go along with that stellar D.
When Walker returns in roughly five weeks, Williams can slide over and provide backup minutes at either guard spot. Another 52-point effort (which Williams provided on Jan. 13) may not be in the offing, but he's a solid addition at a position of need for Charlotte.
If there's a Stephenson trade yet to be made, we could soon see the Hornets get even deeper.
Rough start behind them, the Hornets have the defense and obvious desire (as evidenced by their wheeling and dealing ways) necessary to secure a postseason position.
East: Miami Heat
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Bearing little resemblance to the team that made four straight trips to the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat are clinging to one of the final playoff spots in the East.
Although the star power of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and (yes, I'm about to say it) Hassan Whiteside makes them dangerous, injuries and some seriously disappointing point guard play make them vulnerable.
Miami announced Wade's hamstring will keep him out through the All-Star break, and Bosh has become the team's only reliable scorer. He's had his own health issues this season as well, and with the mileage he's logged over the past four seasons, we shouldn't necessarily expect him to get sturdier.
Whiteside is a revelation, an out-of-nowhere potential cornerstone, which is a thing that basically didn't exist in the NBA until he came along.
Teammate Chris Andersen told Jason Lieser of The Palm Beach Post: "He does everything 10 times better than I do it. With his length and his wingspan and jumping ability—s--t, he’s doing everything with ease. It looks like a video game deal where you create your own guy and he gets in there and just does what he does. It’s fun to watch."
With a possibly fictional character anchoring the interior defense and rebounding at historic rates, Miami should keep its spot—if Wade can play more than he sits from here on out and Bosh holds up.
Still, there are a handful of teams who'd love to make them sweat.
East: Brooklyn Nets
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It's hard to avoid the feeling that the Brooklyn Nets aren't on the bubble by choice.
If they could have extricated themselves from the contracts of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez by now, they probably would have. Despite lots of chatter, via Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, no deals are imminent. And general manager Billy King proved he wouldn't just give his big-money assets away by turning down a reported deal with the Denver Nuggets that would have brought back a pile of basketball junk for Lopez, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
The result is a Brooklyn team that actually has enough talent and veteran experience on hand to make a push, which, again, may or may not be in the franchise's best interest.
It's easy to see how a fresh start might look more appealing than a quick first-round ouster as a seventh or eighth seed. But if Brooklyn doesn't blow it up, we could see head coach Lionel Hollins lean on his vets in a late "Oh, what the hell? We're here, so we might as well try" run.
Lastly, don't discount the recuperative effects of the All-Star break. Brooklyn has a lot of old legs (none of which will be participating in the exhibition) that could use some rest. If the gang's still together two weeks from now, maybe Williams and Co. will be refreshed enough to surprise some people.
East: Detroit Pistons
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Whatever magic came from waiving Josh Smith may have disappeared with Brandon Jennings' ruptured Achilles.
If the version of the Detroit Pistons that existed in the small window between those two transformative events were still around, it'd be easy to proclaim this team a playoff lock and move on. But the Jennings injury changed things.
Even now, though, Detroit is getting good backup play from D.J. Augustin at the point, and Greg Monroe is putting together his best year since 2011-12. Andre Drummond remains a force inside, and there's still enough shooting on the perimeter to keep defenses honest.
The Pistons may not be the team they thought they'd be, and they're definitely not the team Stan Van Gundy eventually hopes to build. But they've got size, an experienced coach and the benefit of playing in a conference where .500 ball is pretty darn good.
These guys have already overcome a 5-23 start, so making up the few games between them and a playoff spot should seem like a cakewalk by comparison.
East: Boston Celtics
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Of all the teams here, the Boston Celtics are probably the most surprising.
After all, they're in the midst of a years-long rebuilding plan, and playoff berths aren't typically part of the teardown-buildup process. Lots and lots of player movement is, though, and the Celtics have managed to stay in this position despite some serious turnover.
"The biggest challenge of the last year-and-a-half has been constant movement," head coach Brad Stevens told Jay King of MassLive.com. "We're talking about, how do you come together in two or three weeks? It's not feasible against the competition you're playing."
Having hung around this long, who's to say Boston's young core won't get a little better down the stretch, come together after the Feb. 19 trade deadline and maybe, just maybe, make things interesting?
East: Indiana Pacers
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It is mildly remarkable that the Indiana Pacers are part of the playoff conversation.
They somehow survived until the Eastern Conference Finals last year, which seems to have erased the memory of their ugly, dysfunctional second half. Letting Stephenson walk and watching George go down with a broken leg over the summer subtracted the team's two most dynamic offensive creators.
George Hill missed time with injury. David West is a year older. Rodney Stuckey plays significant minutes.
The list of reasons why the Pacers should be buried in the lottery is long.
Yet here they are.
Frank Vogel deserves a mountain of credit for maintaining the team's defensive identity and, more bluntly, for keeping these guys from completely giving up. As long as he's in charge, it's safe to assume that lack of effort won't be an issue.
As the season wears on, malaise could afflict some of these other bubble teams. But it's hard to imagine it seeping into Indiana's locker room.
Final note, deliberately hidden at the end so as not to jinx anything: What if George really does come back sometime in March? A few weeks of him in the lineup might provide the late spark Indy needs to snag that eighth seed.
George said it himself, via USA Today: "I think adding me to a great team, we definitely have enough firepower to make some noise in the playoffs if I come back."
Stranger things have happened.
