Zack Greinke's Opt-out Clause Is an Enviable Position of Power

Zack Greinke owns an arsenal that includes a pinpoint-accurate fastball, a bottomless slider and a deceptive changeup. 

And heading into spring training, he is wielding a new weapon: opt-out power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ co-ace is the beneficiary of an opt-out clause in his six-year, $147 million contract that he can exercise after this season. Given the way Greinke has performed over the first two seasons of the deal, if he continues that trend and stays relatively healthy in 2015, entering his second tour of free agency next fall is inevitable.

For Greinke, that would be the wise call, although he is publicly pleading undecided as of now.

“I’ve been thinking about it a little bit,” Greinke told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times less than two weeks ago. “I’ll try to...in spring training either tell you if I will have some sort of answers for you, or if I’ll go the whole season not giving any answers. I wasn’t ready for that question today.” 

Greinke did add that he does not think there is a better organization for him than the Dodgers.

“I do know I have really enjoyed L.A. I don’t think you could get a better organization,” he said to Shaikin. “The owners are amazing. Our front office is, by reputation, the best—or at least in the top three in the game. Our coaching staff is great too. There’s not really any better options anywhere besides here.”

The Dodgers aren’t willing to squash this issue anytime soon. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said in December the team would not offer Greinke an extension before the season starts, meaning they are playing the wait-and-see game.

There are fair reasons for the team to do it this way. Greinke has had minor elbow issues during each of his first two seasons with the Dodgers, and he will be 32 when it is time to opt-out. If injuries or decline saddle Greinke this season, he can stay in the deal and collect $71 million over the final three years. That would take him into his age-35 season, making a lucrative contract nearly impossible by that time.

However, if Greinke can make 30 starts again and remain among baseball’s best starters this season, he will be in line to get another huge payday. It is an option he should take.

Opting out of the contract is also likely if you recall that money played a huge role in Greinke signing with Los Angeles.

“It's obviously the No. 1 thing,” Greinke told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com during his first spring training with the Dodgers. “I could play for the worst team if they paid the most. ... If the last-place team offers $200 million and the first-place team offers $10, I'm going to go for the $200-million no matter what team it was.”

When Greinke was asked about the pending opt-out clause last season, he again cited money in the open market as a factor.

“What happens with [Jon] Lester and [Max] Scherzer will say a lot,” Greinke said to Shaikin during the All-Star break.

Paul Beaty/Associated Press

As it turns out, Lester and Scherzer got big-money deals this offseason. Lester signed with the Chicago Cubs for $155 million, and Scherzer got $210 million from the Washington Nationals.

As a 32-year-old pitcher still at or around the top of his game, Greinke could certainly land another big contract. If he commands something like five years for $135 million, it would give Greinke and Lester nearly the same average annual value, and the deals would end when both are 36. Greinke would also end up with eight years and $211 million between his three years with the Dodgers and that next contract.

Looking at the market for starting pitchers this offseason and considering Greinke’s stats over the last two seasons, and it is easy to say he would be worth that kind of money by this time next year.

As a Dodger, Greinke has the seventh-best WAR (6.8) among National League pitchers (via Fangraphs) despite making only 28 starts in 2013. He has the 10th-highest strikeout rate (8.41 per nine innings), the third-best strand rate (80.2 percent) and the fifth-best expected FIP (3.06). He also won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove.

Greinke’s ERA (2.68), FIP (3.09), ERA-plus (132) and strikeout rate are all better than Lester’s numbers, although Lester did pitch in the American League.

"

Zack Greinke Quietly One of The Best In Baseball Again. Dodgers' Ace In The Hole. http://t.co/Wdp01vqTMk pic.twitter.com/6cWaxOujWN

— Saturnius (@PaxNostrum) December 23, 2014"

While Greinke has clearly been one of the best pitchers in baseball during his time with the Dodgers, losing him would not cripple the team’s rotation. It already has a comparable in No. 3 starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu, whose 6.6 WAR is virtually identical to Greinke’s over the last two seasons.

Plus, considering the team’s willingness to spend for the best players and the lavish crop of free-agent starting pitchers next offseason, Greinke can be replaced. David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, among others, can all become free agents after this season, giving the Dodgers plenty of targets at which to aim.

The team could also re-sign Greinke at a higher total than the three years and $71 million he would be owed if he did not opt out.

Greinke is one of the most analytical players in baseball. He surely knows his worth and can weigh out the risk/reward of his enviable situation.

Once he does, if he hasn’t already, he will know that barring injury, opting out for a new deal is his wisest play.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent he previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.