Revisiting 10 New York Jets Predictions from the Preseason
I'm an idiot and you should probably never listen to a word I say.
That's about the only thing I can take away from my preseason predictions for the New York Jets. My future is not in Salem, Massachusettes; I do not have a functioning crystal ball; revoke my psychic's license for good.
Gang Green's season hit an early tailspin and never got off the ground again at that point, with an eight-game losing streak spelling their doom.
Preseason predictions are meant to be fun, and looking back on them after the fact will only add to the hilarity. With that in mind, here's a fun look back at some of my predictions that were right and others that were hilariously wrong.
Geno Smith Will Be the Starting Quarterback for the Entire Season: Wrong
1 of 10
What I Said
"He had an up-and-down rookie year after falling to the second round, but those experiences should only help him grow in his second season. With a year's worth of knowledge of the Jets offense and an upgraded group of receivers that includes former Denver Broncos wideout Eric Decker and rookie tight end Jace Amaro, Smith is primed for improvement.
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What Happened
Boy, this is a rough start; the preseason predictions don't get much uglier than this one. Geno Smith was the winner of his second straight competition that wasn't really a competition, but he was a hero just for one day and won only one game before losing six straight. Michael Vick was thrust into the lineup as former Jets head coach Rex Ryan threw up one last Hail Mary to try to save his job.
Smith's numbers improved in some areas, as he went from a 55.8 completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, 21 interceptions and a 66.5 passer rating in 2013 to a 59.7 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, 13 picks and a 77.5 passer rating in 2014. The Jets should be keeping their options open at quarterback, and could be looking to create a competition this offseason.
Sheldon Richardson Will Finish the Season with 10 or More Sacks: Wrong
2 of 10
What I Said
"With one of the most talented defensive lines in the NFL, the Jets present a puzzling challenge for offensive lines trying to decide how to devote their resources to blocking the rush. Double-team one defender and you're left with a one-on-one somewhere else. In that sense, Richardson benefits from playing next to fellow first-round picks Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples as well as Damon Harrison, an undrafted gem.
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What Happened
Well, I wasn't off as much this time around, but wrong is wrong.
Richardson was a pass-rushing force this year, notching eight sacks for the Jets defense and earning himself a trip to Arizona to play in the Pro Bowl. He came close, but those accomplishments are nothing to be ashamed of. Defensive tackles and 5-technique defensive ends do not typically generate a lot of sacks, due to the double-teams they often see.
But alongside the talented Jets defensive line, Richardson found his share of one-on-one matchups and took advantage of them. The group of first-rounders—Muhammad Wilkerson, Quinton Coples and Richardson—notched 20.5 sacks. If that group can stay together—Wilkerson is set to be a free agent in 2016—they will continue to dominate for years to come.
Eric Decker Will Have 1,000 or More Receiving Yards: Wrong
3 of 10
What I Said
"Even in a new setting, with a young quarterback and without the bevy of talent around him that he had in Denver, Decker should match the numbers he put up year after year with the Broncos. The Jets could be throwing the ball a bit more in 2014 than they did last year, when they ranked fifth in the league in rushing attempts.
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What Happened
Close again, no cigar again.
Decker fell only 38 yards short of proving me right, despite a Jets offense that ranked dead last in the league in passing yards. He also did it while catching passes from both Geno Smith and Michael Vick, neither of whom had a passer rating above 78 this season.
Decker has the potential to be a key cog in the Jets offense, but his best days were with the Denver Broncos when he was catching passes from future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. If he is going to re-realize that potential, the Jets will need to significantly upgrade the quarterback position.
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Chris Johnson Will Earn Fewer Than 1,000 Total Yards: Right
4 of 10
What I Said
"While there is no telling exactly how the Jets will distribute touches, it's safe to say they will distribute the touches to all three backs [Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson, Bilal Powell].
Consider this: Even when the Jets had the fifth-highest total in rushing attempts in 2013, neither Ivory (843 total yards) or Powell (969 yards) crossed into four-digit territory.
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What Happened
Johnson had a couple of nice games for himself, with more than 100 total yards against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins, but other than that, he remained the same player he's been for years: A flash in the pan, with more sizzle than steak.
Over the previous six seasons, Johnson had earned more than 1,000 yards rushing each year, but also had more than 250 carries in each season. This year, he earned only 663 yards rushing on 155 carries and added 151 receiving yards on 24 catches, finishing with 814 total yards.
Johnson's days as a featured back appear to be behind him, but he can still offer value in a stable of backs which features Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory.
Jace Amaro Will Catch at Least 50 Passes: Wrong
5 of 10
What I Said
"A lack of blocking technique won't stop him from making an impact as a rookie. In his career at Texas Tech, Amaro spent most of his time lined up as a slot receiver rather than as an in-line tight end. The Jets could probably use him in a similar way, although he could move around a bit.
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What Happened
Amaro was not quite the weapon in the passing game that it seemed he could be as a rookie. The Texas Tech product caught 38 passes, falling 12 short of my prediction, with only 345 yards and two touchdowns resulting from those catches. It could have been worse; he had 10 catches against the Denver Broncos in Week 6, which accounted for more than 25 percent of his reception production on the season.
Amaro had a dominant season at Texas Tech in 2013, hauling in 106 passes as a key cog in the Air Raid offense. The Jets need to find a way to tap into the potential he showed that season, or Amaro could become a one-year wonder.
The Jets Defense Will Finish in the Top 10 in Yards Allowed: Right
6 of 10
What I Said
"The Jets defense ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed in each of Rex Ryan's first four years as head coach. They slipped out of the top 10 for the first time in the Ryan era last year, but missed by only one spot with the 11th-best overall defense in the league.
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What Happened
The Jets found a way to rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed and the bottom half in points allowed for the fourth straight year. That has to be some kind of statistical anomaly, but it probably has something to do with the fact that the Jets have finished in the bottom half of the league in turnovers on both sides of the ball for three straight years, meaning their starting field position is among the worst in football, meaning their opponent's offense has fewer yards to travel to score points.
Thus, high rankings in yards allowed and low rankings in points allowed. Ah, the chain effect of football, which once again proves the old adage that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. For years, that weak link has been the offense.
Calvin Pryor Will Force at Least 4 Fumbles: Wrong
7 of 10
What I Said
"Pryor does not hesitate to get involved in run defense, and could make an impact by knocking the football loose in those situations where he comes downhill. He could also catch more than one receiver by surprise with a big hit on a catch over the middle. The opportunities will be there for Pryor to force fumbles, the question is whether he can capitalize and stay safe while doing so.
"
What Happened
Pryor played a majority of the Jets' defensive snaps, with 71.5 percent participation according to Pro Football Focus, but could not find the time to force even one fumble.
Instead, Pryor was criticized early in the year for taking bad angles in run defense and was even benched in Week 10 for being late to multiple meetings, according to ESPN's Rich Cimini. The Jets drafted Pryor to be an enforcer over the middle, with Rex Ryan proclaiming that "big hits will win games."
Now playing under Todd Bowles, Pryor may be asked to do things differently, and may be asked to keep his head on his shoulders rather than trying to knock heads off of shoulders.
The Jets Will Average More Than 21 Points Per Game on Offense: Wrong
8 of 10
What I Said
"Over the past three seasons, the offensive coordinator position has become a revolving door, but Marty Mornhinweg seems to have stopped the spinning—at least momentarily. With a year of experience in Mornhinweg's West Coast offense and a lot of carryover in terms of personnel, the Jets figure to score a bit more easily than they did last year.
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What Happened
The Jets averaged just shy of 17.7 points per game, the fifth-lowest average in the NFL last season. All around, it was a pathetic showing by almost anyone who wasn't a running back. The Jets only scored more than 21 points on five different occasions.
Thus, the revolving door keeps spinning, and the next offensive coordinator to go through the loop will be Chan Gailey. The former Buffalo Bills head coach had better hope that he gets better play at the quarterback position than his predecessors did, or else he could be coming out the other side of that revolving door in short order.
Contract Extension for Muhammad Wilkerson: Wrong
9 of 10
What I Said
"Wilkerson is with the Jets at least through the 2015 season, as a result of the Jets exercising the fifth year in his first-round rookie contract. ... The Jets have all the leverage right now, because there is no real rush to get him signed. It would seem like now is the best time to make sure he doesn't leave the fold anytime soon.
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What Happened
The Jets clearly did not feel the sense of urgency I thought they might with regards to Wilkerson's impending status as a free agent next spring. Wilkerson was once again a force, with six sacks and five batted passes at the line of scrimmage. He was also the league's second-best 3-4 defensive end in run-stop percentage.
The Jets feature one of the most dominant defensive lines in football, and Wilkerson is a key cog in that operation. They exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, and are officially on the clock with a little over a year remaining to get Wilkerson's contract ironed out and prevent him from hitting the open market.
Final Record: 9-7: Wrong
10 of 10
What I Said
"Rex Ryan is a great defensive coach, and Marty Mornhinweg has shown some flashes of brilliance as the offensive coordinator. If they can maximize the talent on this roster and stay healthy, nine wins are well within reach. The Jets will need some kind of improvement off last year if the coaching staff is going to stick around in 2015 and beyond.
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What Happened
Well, I was wrong, but managed to be right at the same time.
The injury bug skipped the Jets locker room this season, but it did not help the coaching staff maximize the talent they had assembled. They won four games, but managed to lose seven games by eight points or less. With a few lucky bounces in those games, who knows what would have happened.
But we do know what did happen, and what did happen was a disaster. The Jets failed to show any kind of improvement, and Ryan and his staff were shown the door.
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