
2015 Atlanta Falcons Mock Draft: Analyzing Matt Miller's Picks Post-Super Bowl
Matt Miller came out with his post-Super Bowl NFL mock draft on Monday, and the Atlanta Falcons' picks in there are interesting to say the least. He did a decent job of addressing the needs, but there are potentially better options for some of the picks he chose.
To verify how good each pick is, it needs to be analyzed for three factors: need, scheme fit and potentially better options available. If there is a better fit for the Falcons available in his mock at that point, that fit will be pointed out.
Round 1 (No. 8 Overall)
1 of 8Who the pick was: LEO Dante Fowler, Florida
Who the pick should be: LEO Dante Fowler, Florida
With Dan Quinn coming in as the head coach, the Falcons will simplify their scheme from the multiple defense that Mike Nolan ran in 2012-2014 to one that’s easier on the players to understand. One of the big changes to the defense will require a position called LEO—a hybrid end/stand-up edge-rusher role.
The Falcons currently have just Jonathan Massaquoi, Malliciah Goodman and Stansly Maponga under contract for the 2015 season, and none of them inspires confidence as a primary pass-rusher as of now. Dante Fowler would be an ideal fit for that LEO role and could be an instant 10-sack guy as a rookie.
Atlanta could definitely use that. With a guy like Fowler in the first round and a free agent like Brian Orakpo or Jabaal Sheard, the Falcons could have a four-man rotation at defensive end that could get after the quarterback and pressure from the edge.
Round 2 (No. 42 Overall)
2 of 8Who the pick was: T Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Who the pick should be: OL Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
For this pick, Miller has Cedric Ogbuehi listed as a tackle. However, the pick doesn’t make sense when looking at him as a tackle with Ryan Schraeder as an ideal fit for right tackle and Jake Matthews the long-term left tackle. Sam Baker and Lamar Holmes are also under contract to give depth at tackle.
Even if Baker is cut, the Falcons' need at tackle is more for depth than for starters. The real question comes at guard. Jon Asamoah is in a perfect contract for his starting right guard role, but Justin Blalock isn’t a great fit at left guard in the zone scheme.
Ogbuehi played guard in college next to Matthews and could be an ideal fit for the Falcons in their new scheme. His frame (6'5", 300 lbs) and athleticism make him an ideal zone-blocking guard. The big question surrounds Ogbuehi’s injury history. A torn ACL could have him out or limited for his rookie season.
Round 3 (No. 71 Overall)
3 of 8Who the pick was: FS Durell Eskridge, Syracuse
Who the pick should be: TE Clive Walford, Miami
This is the first pick that doesn’t make much sense for the Falcons’ needs. While drafting a safety could be good for Atlanta, it needs someone who can cover the deep third of the field effectively, and that’s not Durell Eskridge. Eskridge is a good all-around safety—just not an ideal fit for the Earl Thomas role.
He’s also not ideal value here. However, the Falcons do need a complete tight end, and Clive Walford is a great fit for the West Coast concepts that Kyle Shanahan is going to base his offense around. Walford is very similar to another former Hurricane in Greg Olsen.
Both guys are big at 6’5”, 250 pounds and have great athleticism and body control. Blocking for both will leave a bit to be desired, but the Falcons putting forth a zone-blocking scheme should make it easier on the tight ends to make the right blocks. Walford would be a much better overall value here, though.
Round 4 (No. 104 Overall)
4 of 8Who the pick was: DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Southern Miss
Who the pick should be: RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
Miller went with a defensive tackle here. While Rakeem Nunez-Roches doesn’t look like a bad player on the surface, he is a bad fit for the Falcons’ needs and wants from the 2015 NFL draft. They currently have a second-year second-round pick in RaShede Hageman and a big free agent in Paul Soliai starting.
They also have Jonathan Babineaux and Tyson Jackson as solid fits under contract. Though, Jackson could be cut, and then Atlanta would have to try to re-sign Corey Peters. A bigger need and better fit is at running back. The Falcons need someone to pair with Devonta Freeman in the offense.
Ameer Abdullah is a great fit for a zone scheme, as he has great vision and would also be a good fit for Atlanta’s West Coast concepts with his receiving ability. Should the Falcons have him available in the fourth, they should sprint to the podium to take him.
Round 5 (No. 138 Overall)
5 of 8Who the pick was: G Jamil Douglas, Arizona State
Who the pick should be: LB Lynden Trail, Norfolk St
Assuming the Falcons draft a guy like Cedric Ogbuehi earlier in the draft, then depth would be nice along the offensive line. However, they need to bring in a coverage linebacker at some point, and one of the best, most unique fits for the scheme is Lynden Trail of Norfolk State.
Trail is a 6'6" tall, long player who can disrupt passing lanes, drop into coverage effectively and come off the edge well in a Bruce Irvin-type role. He also could be a unique option for covering the big, strong and fast tight ends in the NFC South. He's got the athleticism of a small forward playing at linebacker.
Carolina's Greg Olsen is 6'5", Tampa's Austin Seferian-Jenkins is 6'6", and New Orleans' Jimmy Graham is 6'7". If the Falcons had someone who could match up with them both physically and technically, they would have the ability to completely change how these basketball tight ends are guarded.
Round 6 (No. 169 Overall)
6 of 8Who the pick was: LB/DE Tony Washington, Oregon
Who the pick should be: TE Nick O'Leary, Florida State
While Tony Washington would be a great pick in a vacuum, the idea that Atlanta would have taken both Lynden Trail and Dante Fowler by this point makes the pick seem a bit overkill. Instead, the Falcons should look at a tight end who fits the team's likely usage of multiple tight ends under Kyle Shanahan.
Sure, Levine Toilolo and Clive Walford are both going to be good skill-set fits as in-line, tall tight ends who can run block and go out and catch passes, but the Falcons need an H-back-style tight end who can line up at fullback, in-line or even at wide receiver to really create mismatches.
That's what Nick O'Leary did best at Florida State. He's very similar to Chris Cooley when he was coming out of college and should be able to make at least a little bit of an impact right away. Atlanta needs to get someone who can help create those matchup issues on its offense, and a combination of O'Leary, Toilolo and Walford in goal-line situations can be pretty scary.
Round 7 (No. 200 Overall)
7 of 8Who the pick was: RB Matt Jones, Florida
Who the pick should be: RB Matt Jones, Florida
Something that the zone scheme always needs is a power running back in the rotation. When the Falcons ran it back in 2004-2006, they had T.J. Duckett to complement Warrick Dunn. When the Broncos ran it, they tended to prefer the bigger backs because they could take hits in the backfield.
Miller gave Atlanta Matt Jones of Florida in this round, and it was just a perfect pick. As a former Gator, Dan Quinn would have a ton of familiarity with him and know whether or not he was a good fit for the Falcons scheme.
And in this situation, he would be used primarily as a pounder in the middle after Devonta Freeman and Ameer Abdullah took roles as the primary tailbacks in all-around roles. The Falcons could have a pretty good three-headed monster that might even surpass 2,000 yards rushing as a group if they went this route.
Round 7 (No. 202 Overall)
8 of 8Who the pick was: WR Devante Davis, UNLV
Who the pick should be: CB Nick Marshall, Auburn
The Falcons do need a wide receiver, but if a guy like Nick Marshall is available, he could be a unique fit for the Falcons as a cornerback in their new scheme. Marshall is a former college quarterback who can use his knowledge of offense to help with the transition to corner.
As an athlete, he's got all the tools. He was 6'1-1/2", 205 pounds at the Senior Bowl (numbers received firsthand) and looked like he has 4.45-4.50 speed in a 40-yard dash. That combination of size and speed will be ideal for the position switch and role in the new defense.
Marshall would be the long-term option at outside corner, allowing Robert Alford or Desmond Trufant to move inside to nickel in the nickel packages. The Falcons could have a great developmental project at corner in Marshall if he ends up on the roster.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats, ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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