Why the Portland Trail Blazers Aren't NBA Title Contenders Yet

Three months into the NBA season, the Portland Trail Blazers have seemingly picked up right where they left off last year. However, despite their impressive record, the Blazers still have improvements to make before they can be considered part of the NBA title discussion.

For much of the season, Portland has ranked among the top 10 in almost every meaningful offensive and defensive category, en route to a blistering 30-8 record through Jan. 13. However, after going 2-8 over their last 10 games amid a significant offensive slump, the mettle of this young Blazers team is finally being tested.

While their hot start hoisted them near the top of the NBA standings, their recent slump has tempered loftier expectations. At 33-16, The Blazers are certainly great, but inconsistencies throughout their roster prevent them from being a true title contender just yet.

After Jan. 11’s impressive fourth-quarter barrage against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Blazers looked like they could do no wrong. Damian Lillard, fresh off a handful of clutch performances and two weeks away from his eventual All-Star snub, was looking like a viable MVP candidate and Portland was firing on all cylinders.

Despite Robin Lopez, who has been out with a broken hand since Dec. 15, and Nicolas Batum, who seems to have forgotten how to shoot a basketball, the Blazers continued their inspired play into the second half of January.

However, even then, labeling this Blazers team a legitimate title contender in a historically dominant Western Conference seemed like of a stretch. Now, as they wade through a difficult series of losses, it’s easier to understand why this young group is still a season or two away from championship contention.

This most recent slump is most likely just that, a slump, but it still highlights concerns regarding the team’s competitiveness. Over the last 10 games, the Blazers' three-point shooting and crisp passing have evaporated and their offensive output has struggled as a result.

While many pointed to defense as Portland's primary concern entering this season, their scoring has suffered most in recent weeks. Their defensive efficiency is still ranked fourth in the league at 99.9 according to NBA.com, and they’re seventh in opponents’ points per game, giving up 97.4 a contest.

The same can’t be said for their offense of late, which has taken a nosedive as their efficiency and scoring have dropped across the board.

Entering January, the Blazers had the best offense in the league and top-five three-point shooting. Yet, over their last 10 games, they are averaging just 97.2 points per contest, only good enough for 23rd in the league behind the 8-40 Minnesota Timberwolves.

During this stretch, they’ve shot only 41.5 percent from the field, a decrease of nearly three percentage points from their season average. As Willy Raedy of Blazer's Edge notes, “Over the past five games, the Blazers have scored only 98.3 points per 100 possessions, about in line with the Pacers or Hornets. Ouch.”

	PPG	FG%	3P%	OffRtg
Before Jan. 13	103.8	45.1	37.7	105.8
Since Jan. 13	97.2	41.9	33.4	100.6

Sure, the Blazers have been dealing with a rash of nagging injuries including Lopez, backup Joel Freeland, and LaMarcus Aldridge, who has been playing with a torn ligament in his shooting thumb for the last several weeks. But it's been their wing players that have let them down.

Many of their backcourt players have been struggling from beyond the arc. Since that Jan. 11 win against the Lakers, their three-point shooting has dropped from a fifth-ranked 37.7 percent to a pedestrian 33.4 percent.

Much of their success thus far has come from timely three-point shooting, something that has been absent recently. But, despite their inability to convert open threes, they’ve actually been shooting more from beyond the three-point line. Over the course of the season, three-pointers have constituted 32.0 percent of their total shots. During this slump, that number has risen to 34.8 percent.

This is not to say that Portland is a one-dimensional team, but their reliance on the outside shot has been a concern for some. The team is second in the league in three-point attempts per game and often relies on the outside prowess of Lillard and Wesley Matthews to close out games. However, this strategy hasn’t proven fruitful and much of that can be attributed to Lillard’s recent shooting woes.

Since that Jan. 11 victory in Los Angeles,  Lillard’s shootings percentages have been atrocious. The third-year guard has been shooting just 33 percent from the field and an abysmal 24.1 percent from behind the arc. Despite this dip in efficiency, Lillard has actually averaged one more three-point attempt per game during this stretch than his season average.

Even with the imminent return of Lopez and the confidence that Lillard will round back into form, the rest of the roster remains an uncertainty as the Blazers look forward to the playoffs. Despite a modest improvement of their bench with the additions of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman, the slew of unproven and untested reserves filling out their roster raises questions about Portland’s playoff longevity.

Shooting guards C.J. McCollum and Will Barton were promising young rotation players coming into this season, but neither have performed with any consistency. Their other wings, Victor Claver and Allen Crabbe, have also been inconsistent throughout the year, and none have separated themselves from the pack, leaving coach Terry Stotts with four question marks from which to choose.

Meyers Leonard, who has filled in at center for the injured Lopez and Freeland, has flashed signs of potential but is still suffering from NBA growing pains. That leaves Thomas Robinson, who has struggled to stay on the floor and find a role in Stotts’ system, despite playing substantial minutes in last year's playoffs due to Aldridge’s absence.

While there is certainly much to love about the Blazers, title talk is a bit premature, especially considering the gauntlet they would have to run to escape this year’s Western Conference.

Luckily, this is a young, talented team with no starter over the age of 30 (although Aldridge hits that mark this summer). While the Blazers may not be a title contender this year, it is entirely possible that their best is yet to come.