What to Expect from Top Cuban Signing Yasmany Tomas' 1st MLB Season

The Arizona Diamondbacks made a splash this offseason with the high-profile signing of Cuban outfielder/third baseman Yasmany Tomas, the biggest name on the international market.

Tomas, 24, inked a four-year deal worth $68.5 million, making him the second-highest-paid Cuban player in baseball behind Boston’s Rusney Castillo.

Naturally, there are high expectations for Tomas, who is making the jump directly to the major leagues and being asked to play a new position (we’ll get to that in a bit).

Given the number of Cuban players to make an impact in recent years—and there are more on the way after Tuesday’s news that MLB has adjusted the signing process for Cuban players—and the money saved on their contracts through team-friendly deals, all signs point to Tomas becoming a star player in the big leagues. Right?

Tomas has big-time raw power to go along with a track record of success in Cuba as well as in international tournaments, such as the World Baseball Classic. However, there are aspects of his game that give reason to be leery of his long-term impact in the major leagues.

What We Know

Tomas debuted as an 18-year-old in Cuba’s Serie Nacional during the 2008-09 season but didn’t emerge as one of Cuba’s more prolific hitters until 2011-12, when the then-21-year-old batted .298/.340/.581 with 20 home runs, 15 doubles, 50 RBI and a 57-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 272 at-bats (83 games).

Tomas added to his resume the following year with another strong offensive season, batting .289/.364/.538 with 15 homers, 18 doubles, 60 RBI and a 52-34 K/BB ratio in 277 at-bats. It was also the first time in Tomas’ Serie Nacional career that he played center field almost exclusively.

In his final year (2013-14) with the Industriales, Tomas’ playing time and production both were limited due to a wrist injury, but he still managed to turn in a solid offensive campaign, with a .291/.348/.452 batting line, 23 extra-base hits (six home runs) and 35 RBI in 230 at-bats.

From a scouting perspective, Tomas’ calling card is his enormous power.

Baseball America's Ben Badler noted the 24-year-old’s near top-of-the-scale thump back when he defected from Cuba:

"

A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne.

"

FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel holds a similar view about Tomas’ power, placing it in the 60 to 70 range on the scouting scale, but he wonders whether the 24-year-old’s bat will translate against big league pitching.

“Tomas has a short bat path for a power hitter and quick hands that move through the zone quickly,” McDaniel writes. “The tools are here for at least an average hitter, but Tomas’ plate discipline has been questioned, and he can sometimes sell out for pull power in games.”

ESPN’s Keith Law also praised Tomas' swing mechanics and approach, stating that he’s “very short to the ball—maybe even more so than [Jose] Abreu—with good hip rotation and a very quiet approach.”

Between the above video clip from the 2013 World Baseball Classic and GIF (via Gfycat) from his first Diamondbacks workout, you can see two different swings.

Granted the latter didn’t involve live pitching, but his swing during batting practice appears to be much more controlled and short, and if you watch the full video, you can see him focusing on driving the ball up the middle and to the opposite field.

Concerns

As McDaniel implied, skepticism regarding Tomas’ ability to hit for average and get on base is fairly widespread in the scouting community. The concern stems from his swing-and-miss tendencies and aggressive approach, both of which could lead to a difficult adjustment period for the 24-year-old.

“Some scouts think it’s more of a 40-45 bat (.240 to .250 average) that may keep Tomas from getting to all of his raw power in games, while others see a soon-to-be 24-year-old with the tools to hit and think the hot streak of Cuban hitters in the big leagues will continue with him,” McDaniel writes.

And then there’s his defense.

Tomas played mostly center field during his time in Cuba, but his size, speed and range project better as a left fielder in the major leagues.

Yet, the Diamondbacks believe he might be the team’s answer at the hot corner, as new manager Chip Hale has already stated that the 24-year-old will have a chance to win the gig in spring training. Per Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com:

Tomas did see some time at third base in Cuba, but he “was not good there,” according to a tweet from Badler, who doesn’t envision him playing the position in the major leagues.

Arizona is at least willing to find out, though, and so far it sounds as though the club likes what it sees.

"He's a very, very smart young man," D-backs general manager Dave Stewart said, via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. "He's really taking in the information that's being given to him and applying it immediately. We do think he's going to be able to play the position. We don't expect it will be an easy transition for him. But what we are seeing at this moment is promising."

As you can see in the above GIF from his workout at Salt River Fields (Arizona's spring complex), Tomas does show some athleticism in his actions, while his hands suggest at least some familiarity with the position. Whether he can learn it on the fly at the highest level is a whole different story, however.

What to Expect

Tomas’ future position isn’t really of importance when determining his potential impact, because he’s going to be a left fielder or designated hitter for most of his career, even if he does start at third base.

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection model seems to take Tomas’ strengths and weaknesses as a hitter into consideration when predicting his upcoming season, and it also offers a nice baseline projection for his annual production: 520 PA, 38.6 XBH%, 26 HR, 4.4 BB%, 18.3 K%, .267/.302/.464, .334 wOBA.

For a point of reference, here are three other hitters that project for a similar wOBA in 2015 (based on available information):

	PA	XBH%	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yasmany Tomas	520	38.6	26	4.4	18.3	.267	.302	.464	.334
Wilin Rosario	457	36.7	19	4.6	21.4	.271	.304	.462	.330
Trevor Plouffe	552	38.6	17	8.0	19.6	.255	.319	.426	.327
Josh Reddick	506	40.2	18	8.5	19.8	.245	.308	.433	.324

However, the ZiPS only focuses on the 2015 season specifically. McDaniel believes Tomas' peak production could look something like “.275/.350/.480 with 25-30 homers,” which, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron noted, “would equal out to about a 130 wRC+” and makes Tomas “an above-average player, probably in the +3 WAR range.”

The consensus appears to be that Tomas, regardless of how his hit tool translates and develops in the major leagues, has a high probability of reaching his power potential, which, given the ever-increasing demand for power on the open market, could make him worth every bit of his $68.5 million contract.

Beyond that, however, we have no choice but to continue speculating until he finally plays in games this spring. The Diamondbacks definitely have something in Tomas—what that is, exactly, should become clearer with time.