Did the Texans Make the Right Call in Ignoring 2014 Quarterback Class?

Even the most conventional of conventional wisdom will tell you that the Houston Texans went 9-7 in spite of, rather than because of, their quarterback situation.

The Texans were roundly expected to select a quarterback early in the 2014 draft after watching Matt Schaub rapidly decline in front of their eyes en route to a 2-14 season. Instead, they selected Tom Savage in the fourth round, and he barely played all season.

Honestly, things could have gone a lot worse.

Despite a platoon of passers with obvious current limitations in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Savage and Case Keenum, head coach Bill O'Brien was able to scheme a lot more production than I thought was possible from the position.

Per Football Outsiders, the Texans finished 19th in passing DVOA with a positive percentage. And that number is significantly weighed down by Keenum starts—Fitzpatrick and Mallett both finished with a positive DVOA, Fitzpatrick in enough attempts to qualify for 13th in DVOA among quarterbacks.

Player	DYAR	DVOA	QBR
Ryan Fitzpatrick	382 (17)	6.7% (13)	55.3 (22)
Ryan Mallett	118	14.0%	48.2
Tom Savage	-20	-24.1%	12.7
Case Keenum	-49	-20.7%	43.7

Was that worth passing on the supposed franchise quarterbacks of the 2014 class? As of now, they look like a minefield, though one player significantly boosted himself up over the second half of the season.

One argument against the Texans passing on those quarterbacks is a term Grantland's Bill Barnwell likes to throw out often: opportunity cost.

Unless you're really drinking the Mallett Kool-Aid, the Texans spent the season not learning anything about the future of their quarterback situation. Savage looked lost in his small sample size.

In the NFL, you either have a solution or you don't. The Texans have hypothetical or potential solutions, so they don't really have any.

I am less enamored with the economic term for this situation—if we want to call it what it was, the 2014 season was about seeing how O'Brien's offense worked with an untrustworthy pilot.

As much as I think it is ultimately pointless with the talent currently on hand, we do have a better understanding of the baseline of what Texans fans can expect going forward. That is, in theory, a worthy endeavor.

Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	QBR
Teddy Bridgewater	MIN	-160 (38)	-16.9% (37)	50.2 (27)
Derek Carr	OAK	-149 (37)	-14.9% (34)	38.4 (34)
Johnny Manziel	CLE	-145 (n/a)	-73.7% (n/a)	5.1 (n/a)
Blake Bortles	JAX	-955 (44)	-40.6% (43)	21.9 (43)

I came into the 2014 draft believing that the Texans needed to leave with Teddy Bridgewater by any means necessary, though it obviously looked like he'd slide far enough for a trade up.

Because my thought was that reasonable minds could disagree, I wound up going on the record as stating that they needed to leave with Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel. One of those suggestions now looks a lot smarter than the other.

Bridgewater's seasonal stats are ugly, but they mask a strong improvement over the second half of the season. Bridgewater's DVOA through Minnesota's Week 10 bye was minus-28.0 percent. From Week 11 to Week 17? Merely minus-6.5 percent.

Those aren't beautiful numbers, but they are a pretty fair start—especially when you consider the sideshow that was wideout Cordarrelle Patterson and the fact that offensive coordinator Norv Turner may be losing his fastball.

Ask San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers if he's seen any difference in his post-Norv life.

The other three quarterbacks drafted early who played have been abysmal. Blake Bortles clearly regressed down the stretch, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are conceding that they're essentially building his mechanics up from scratch this offseason.

Manziel has seemingly partied his way out of the Browns' immediate plans, and according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Plain Dealer, he has decided to head to rehab:

I asked fellow Bleacher Report columnist Cian Fahey about Manziel and Bortles in a podcast last week, and he said he wouldn't hesitate to move on from either of them before next season.

Carr is a more complicated evaluation given the paucity of offensive talent the Oakland Raiders had. He seems to have been taught to throw the ball the second he is pressured.

He's got a hell of an arm, but given a lack of evidence to the contrary, I'm going to hold steady on my predraft evaluation that there's not a potential top-10 guy in his skill set.

Given what I think is, at this point, a barely concealed secret that the Texans had no interest in Bridgewater even if he had slid to the 33rd overall pick, it's hard to fault them for not seeing the best of this crop.

I do think some of these scenarios would have turned out differently with O'Brien coaching them, but even with Bridgewater, it's hard to say the team would have been better off starting one of these rookies last season.

If that were the only reason to have drafted a quarterback early, the Texans would be in terrific shape. But this isn't a vacuum. The ultimate goal for the Texans was not, "Is this quarterback good enough to get nine wins with in 2014?" It was, "Is this quarterback good enough to win a Super Bowl with?"

Through one season, it doesn't look like that guy was in the draft anyway. But the depressing fact is that the Texans are still on the same treadmill until they commit to someone with that potential.

I still believe Bridgewater will get there, though I know that's not exactly a layup statement at this point.

As Houston turns to its needs in the 2015 draft, the needle on "needs" hasn't moved off quarterback. It can't move until the Texans find one.

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.