Chicago Cubs: Cubbies Will Be Competitive in 2015, but 2016 Is Their Year

For the first time in a long time, things are looking bright on the North Side of Chicago.  Theo Epstein, the team's president of baseball operations, has quickly transformed the Cubs' farm system into one of the best in baseball, been aggressive on the trade and free-agent markets and lured one of the game's best managers to lead the squad.

Confidence is brewing in the clubhouse, especially for Epstein and All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo. As MLB.com's Carrie Muskrat reports, Epstein stated that the club's goal for the upcoming season is to win the NL Central. Rizzo took it a step further two weeks ago by saying the Cubs are going to contend for a World Series.  

Rizzo's predictions are very ambitious, and his quotes are admirable, talking like there is no doubt in his mind the Cubs will play deep into October. Here is what he said, per ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers:

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It's [winning the division] going to happen this year. It's what we are going to do. We're going to play and we're going to win the NL Central, you can quote me on that. We should be the team, with all due respect to every other team, we're going to do some things this year. That's what we're going to put our sights on and we're not going to accept anything else.

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The 25-year-old first baseman has developed into a star the past couple of seasons and had his best year so far in 2014, hitting .286 with 32 home runs and a whopping 151 OPS+, per Baseball-Reference.com.  And he will have plenty of help in the order for years to come.

The Cubs traded for outfielder Dexter Fowler earlier this month, and he has the ability to impact the offense in a big way.  He can hit in any top-of-the-order slot, and he has recorded an on-base percentage of at least .360 in each of the past four seasons.  He has a history of getting injured, but if he can stay healthy, he should be very productive playing at Wrigley Field.

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Their biggest acquisition, though, has been the signing of prized free-agent, left-handed pitcher Jon Lester.  They handed out a six-year, $155 million contract to Lester in hopes that he will anchor the pitching rotation as all the young players find their footing in the big leagues.  

And arguably the most significant move this offseason was not a player, but someone to lead the players.  Joe Maddon was swayed by the Cubs' tradition and expectations as well as the five-year, $25 million contract he was given, according to the Chicago Tribune's Mark Gonzales, to shift his managerial genius to the National League.  Maddon is the perfect person to lead this transition from rebuilding to contending, and he hasn't been bashful about making predictions either.

The Cubs have shown they are not afraid to spend money.  Not only on players and managers but on facilities as well.  Wrigley Field is undergoing $375 million stadium renovations that will leave them without outfield bleachers until May.  According to Crain's Chicago Business (h/t Bleed Cubbie Blue's Al Yellon), included in those plans is a new Daktronics video board that will bring Wrigley up to 21st century standard.  

But even with all these additions, Rizzo's bold statements will likely not come true in 2015. Despite the wealth of young talent that will be on the roster by season's end, it is going to take some time to get accustomed to playing in The Show.  Players like Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler will need to adjust to big league pitching and the wear and tear that comes with a 162-game season.

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For Baez, a 22-year-old Puerto Rican who was the ninth-ranked prospect in MLB.com's 2013 Prospect Watch, it might take more time than expected.  In his debut season toward the end of 2014, he struggled mightily.  

Sure, he flashed his massive power on occasion, but when he wasn't hitting home runs, he was striking out at an alarming rate.  He struck out on over 41 percent of his plate appearances, which is the main reason his batting average was only .169.  

After those struggles, Baez chose to play winter ball in Puerto Rico in an attempt to improve his contact skills.  However, he hasn't shown any signs of changing his approach.  He struck out in 21 of his 49 plate appearances in the Roberto Clemente League, which was the worst strikeout rate of any position player with at least 20 plate appearances. 

However, Baez has too much raw talent to not be at least an above-average big league player.  He will figure it out soon enough and will be a part of the Cubs' keystone combination for years to come.

Bryant and Soler look like the real deal.  Soler, a 6'4", 225-pound physical specimen from Cuba, hit .292 with five homers in 24 major league games at the end of last season. And he has the potential to be the next Yoenis Cespedes or Yasiel Puig.  

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Bryant, on the other hand, had arguably the best minor league season in recent memory and will likely be called up to the big leagues sometime in 2015.  

He was named the top prospect in ESPN's recent Top 100 Prospects list.  According to projections compiled by FanGraphs' The Steamer, Bryant will hit .261 with 21 home runs in 97 games played.  Whether or not those numbers prove to be true, it gives an idea on what to expect in his rookie season.

However, even with the loads of talent, the Cubs cannot realistically expect to win the World Series this year.  They do have an outside shot to make the playoffs now that there are two wild-card slots, but the World Series is too far fetched.

It's easy to get caught up in the bright future and optimism, but the Cubs finished last place in their division last year with a 73-89 record.  Lester will surely add a few wins, as will Maddon, but last year it took 88 wins to make the playoffs in the National League.  The year before that, the Reds grabbed the second wild-card spot with 90 wins.

Assuming those numbers stay consistent, the Cubs would need to improve by more than 15 games to make the playoffs in 2015.

According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA rankings, which projects the standings and records for the upcoming MLB seasons, the Cubs will go 82-80 and finish second in the NL Central.  With that record, they would not make the playoffs. 

I agree that the Cubs will be much improved yet won't make the playoffs, but 2016 will be a different story.  All of their youngsters will have a year of experience under their belt and will be more comfortable playing with each other.

With Bryant, Rizzo and Soler hitting in the middle of the order and Baez clubbing home runs while increasing his contact rate, the Cubs can potentially have the most productive lineup in baseball.

And with Lester at the top of the order followed by Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood, the Cubs can win the World Series.  

So if things don't go exactly as planned this year, don't get worried, things are getting better in Chicago. They are eventually going to end the championship drought that goes all the way back to 1908.  It just won't be this year.

But if all the pieces fall into place like they should, 2016 might be the year.

The Puerto Rico winter stats were compiled by J.J. Cooper of Baseball America.