Joe Johnson Trade Would Be Right Player at Wrong Price for Charlotte Hornets
Joe Johnson would be an ideal fit for the Charlotte Hornets—if not for the outrageous price tag attached to his services.
Determined to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Hornets have interest in acquiring Johnson from the Brooklyn Nets, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams and Gerald Henderson would all be shipped to Brooklyn to make the finances work.
This news comes not weeks after the Nets balked at the chance to land Stephenson as part of a three-team deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Hornets. Their decision to back off made sense at the time, since Brook Lopez would have been the collateral damage, according to Wojnarowski.
Lopez has the option of exploring free agency this summer—one he may or may not take advantage of—so there's the possibility he becomes an expiring contract. With Stephenson guaranteed $9 million next season and battling significant statistical regression, the return just wasn't good enough.
Swapping out Lopez for Johnson makes the crux of this idea worthwhile. Sort of.
Stephenson, Henderson and Williams will combine to earn $22 million in 2015-16, per Spotrac, so the Nets stand to save nearly $3 million by dealing Johnson, who will rake in just under $24.9 million on his own. But Henderson, like Lopez, holds a player option. The Nets would shed nearly $9 million in commitments if he opts for free agency.
That makes this trade a calculated dice roll for them. There's a strong chance Henderson—who's posting the second-worst player efficiency rating of his career (12.2), per Basketball-Reference—decides to finish out his contract and reach the open market in 2016.
While the aforesaid scenario is more the Nets' speed, his sticking around doesn't render the move a failure. Worst-case scenario has the Nets retaining three palatable expiring deals, rather than a $24.9 million albatross that would be difficult to move without absorbing long-term salary in return.
It's more complicated for the Hornets.
Having won nine of their last 11 games, the Hornets now own the Eastern Conference's final playoff spot. Acquiring Johnson should safeguard them against falling back into lottery territory. He provides an immediate punch for the NBA's third-worst offense and does so at a time when Kemba Walker, the Hornets' leading scorer, may need surgery on his left knee, per the Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell.
The Nets' own playoff chase is not to be overlooked either. At 18-26 and only a half-game outside the playoff picture, they're the Hornets' most direct competition for that eighth and final slot. Landing Johnson not only bilks the Nets of their leading scorer, but it signifies the beginning of a fire sale, potentially sealing their lottery-bound fate.
Peace of mind like this cannot be overstated for a Hornets squad that hasn't nabbed back-to-back playoff berths since 2001 and 2002. If owner Michael Jordan and general manager Rich Cho have a way to guarantee another postseason appearance, they would be remiss not to explore it.
And Johnson, again, helps the Hornets where they need it most.
Stephenson has been a terrible offensive fit beside Walker. Both are ball dominators who seldom dabble in efficient spot-up shooting. When they share the floor, an already-stagnant offense gets worse and the Hornets are outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com.
For all the isolation knocks against Johnson, he's a better complement to Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at this point of his career. Like At The Hive's Joshua Priemski says:
"It's also worth noting that Johnson's Usage Percentage (the percentage of plays he ends with either a shot attempt or turnover) hasn't been over 22.3 percent in three years. He's not the ball hog many think he is.
Defensively, Johnson's a mixed bag. He's exceptionally strong and has great size at his position, but he's sometimes a step slow which can be exploited by the league's quicker players. That said, he's a system player at this point in his career and smart on the defensive end.
"
Johnson is banging in 36.2 percent of his three-point attempts this season, and he's a lifetime 37.1 percent shooter from deep. He's also posting an effective field-goal percentage—a measurement of two- and three-point efficiency—of 54 in catch-and-shoot situations.
That's a demonstrative upgrade over the Hornets' collective spot-up rate. They're effective field-goal percentage in those situations is 45.1—the league's second-worst mark, behind only the seven-win Minnesota Timberwolves.
Despite the recent stretch of success, the Hornets' point-piling attack still needs to be rescued. Their resurgence has been fueled by a stingy defense; the offense has remained in the bottom six of efficiency over the last 11 games (nine wins), while the defense ranks first.
All this, then, seems perfect for the Hornets.
Too perfect.
Cost has to be a factor here. Henderson, Stephenson and Williams—who hasn't filled Charlotte's glaring stretch-forward hole (33.6 percent shooting from deep)—may be expendable, and the Hornets may be willing to stomach the $24.9 million Johnson will take home next season.
But what then?
If the Hornets trade for Johnson, and Al Jefferson exercises his $13.5 million player option for 2015-16, they'll have roughly $50.4 million committed to one of the most underwhelming three-player cores in the league.
Jefferson will turn 31 next season, Johnson is pushing 34 now and Walker has never shown he can anchor an above-average—or, for that matter, even average—offensive attack. This will be the third time Charlotte finishes in the bottom five of offensive efficiency since he entered the league in 2011, and they've yet to rank higher than 24th with him running point.
Insufficient talent has certainly been an issue during that time. Only when Jefferson arrived last season did Walker enjoy the luxury of a true offensive sidekick. But the addition of Johnson doesn't nudge the needle enough to justify the financial investment while unloading three rotation players.
Walker, Johnson and Jefferson only promise more of the same. The Hornets will contend for the East's final two playoff spots this season, and maybe the final three next season. That's it. That's the ceiling. And for $50.4 million, the Hornets cannot peak at mediocre.
There's even the distinct possibility that ceiling proves ambitious.
Charlotte's second unit already ranks 18th and 19th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, per HoopsStats.com. Removing players from the rotation further thins out a puddle-deep docket, forcing head coach Steve Clifford to rely heavily on his starters, many of whom (Walker, Jefferson, Kidd-Gilchrist) have battled or are still battling injuries.
Including Johnson himself.
Said Johnson after scoring six points while attempting just seven shots in 29 minutes against the Utah Jazz on Saturday, per Newsday's Roderick Boone:
"I’ve just got tendinitis real bad in my right knee and in my left ankle. I’ve been playing with both of them, and been pretty banged up for probably about the past month and a half or so. We don’t have time to have guys sit and rest, like some other teams do. We just don’t have the roster for that, so I just have to play through it.
"
Nothing would change if he journeyed to Charlotte. The Hornets don't have the personnel to combat his absence—especially if Walker needs surgery. And, to that end, Johnson hasn't been particularly effective while playing through his tendinitis. Over his last six games, he's averaging just 10 points on 32.4 percent shooting (24-of-74), including 26.3 percent from beyond the arc (5-of-19).
Make no mistake, the Hornets need to strengthen their pool of talent at the 2 and 3. The numbers speak for themselves, and they're saying nothing good.
| PG | 17.2 | 16.2 | 1.0 |
| SG | 12.4 | 14.5 | -2.1 |
| SF | 12.4 | 10.5 | 1.9 |
| PF | 13.5 | 15.8 | -2.3 |
| C | 16.7 | 17.7 | 1.0 |
Expecting a half-hobbled Johnson to immediately improve the team by marked bounds, though, is beyond risky. It's not like the Hornets have loads of time to tie this thing together, after all.
In the event they acquire Johnson and accept that this season will end with a first-round exit, they have just 2015-16 to capitalize on Johnson's and Jefferson's stays in Charlotte. This, again, is assuming Jefferson doesn't explore the open market.
As badly as the Hornets might want to part ways with Stephenson, this isn't the deal for them. Adding salary to a fast-fleeting foundation does little, if anything, to improve their already-murky outlook. They need to have one or both eyes on the future. If they're going to dump Stephenson, they need to actually dump him—trade him to create more flexibility, not less.
Then again, for a Hornets team looking to bolster its short-term potential—however marginally—Johnson is the right player, with the right skill set, available at the right time.
The price, both financially and logistically, is just all wrong.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Jan. 25, 2015 unless otherwise cited.
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