Predicting the Second Half for Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers

Where do we go from here?

The first half of the NBA season has been anything but kind to the Los Angeles Lakers and, with a lottery pick all but guaranteed, a look ahead to the remainder of the season presents more questions than it does answers.

The Lakers, at 12-30, hold the league’s fourth-worst record and are firmly on pace for a second consecutive losing season. This will mark only the second time a Los Angeles Lakers team has compiled back-to-back losing season and, with rumors about Kobe Bryant’s looming retirement swirling, the future of this storied franchise leaves much to be discussed.

Last weekend, Bryant admitted to entertaining the idea of retiring after this season and foregoing the final year of his two-year, $48 million contract. “I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t crossed my mind,” he told Los Angeles Times’ Bill Plaschke, although he maintained that such a scenario isn’t likely. “Right now I doubt it…but anything’s possible.”

This revelation came only days after reports that both Bryant and coach Byron Scott would mutually consider shutting down the 19-year veteran sometime in March if the Lakers are not near playoff contention by then. Since the Lakers will be nowhere near playoff contention by then, playing without Bryant for the final month of the season may be a distinct possibility.

So what are the Lakers to do? If they shut down Bryant, who has already missed eight contests as part of a broader attempt to limit his fatigue, the Lakers will surely continue to struggle against even the lowliest of competitors and are almost guaranteed to finish among the league’s bottom five.

Although the Lakers have seen spurts of improvement during Bryant’s absences, especially on the offensive end where the ball has seemed to move more crisply and get a more players involved as a result, it is absurd to think this team is better without the 16-time All-Star on the floor.

If the Lakers do choose to sit Bryant in March, the remainder of the season could serve as an ample opportunity to thoroughly evaluate the litany of unproven talent on the Lakers' roster. Despite sitting 18 games under .500, there have certainly been some bright (or at least comparatively less dim) spots thus far for the Lakers.

Training camp signee Ronnie Price is far and away the Lakers' grittiest on-ball defender and has earned the starting point guard job when healthy. Newly acquired Ed Davis is emerging as a consistent NBA defensive big man and actually ranks among the top 25 players in blocks per 48 minutes.

Wesley Johnson, after a horrific first couple weeks, is also finally benefiting from consistent playing time and is maturing into a formidable athletic wing player. His 7’1” wingspan and springy 37-inch vertical are attributes that have intrigued coaches and staffs since his fourth-overall selection by Minnesota in 2010. Johnson has underwhelmed thus far throughout his career but two consecutive years of heavy playing time in Los Angeles may finally be yielding results. This season, he’s averaging career highs in minutes, points and three-point percentage,

The biggest upside of shutting Kobe down late in the season would be an opportunity to showcase any talent that may pan out (Johnson, Davis) and use them as either trade assets for rebuilding or as a way to entice high-end 2015 free agents. As Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times suggests, “instead of ‘rest,’ the Lakers could cite ‘future’ as a reason of continuing to sit Kobe Bryant.”

If a rested Kobe chooses to play out his final year in 2015-16, he could be doing so with potential offseason acquisitions like Marc Gasol or Goran Dragic, either of whom could be lured to Los Angeles with promises of a cooperative Bryant, a healthy Julius Randle, and smooth transition into the future.

Of course, this is pure speculation and, although a perfect storm could feasibly produce such a scenario, its not particularly likely. Instead, there is the very real possibility Bryant remains active for the entire season with this same pattern of rest, all while piloting this ragtag Lakers squad to maybe 28 wins.

Kobe and Scott seem to be good at reaching compromises and Bryant is not someone to miss extended time unless he absolutely has to. Then again, I couldn’t fathom why Kobe would want to play sporadically on a team going nowhere only to do it again the year after. The likelihood of him totally losing it, going into full meltdown mode and chucking his way to under 35 percent shooting and another serious injury almost seems more likely.

But what if Kobe does hang up the laces after this season? What if by the end of an 82-game grind and an abysmal record, he finally decide to call it quits? After all, Bryant already has begun feeling the affects of an NBA schedule on his 36-year-old body, resting for multiple games this month. As uncomfortable as this is to imagine, perhaps retirement makes the most sense.

Sure, the Lakers will head into next season uncertain about their immediate future. But at least they’ll have an extra $25 million to work with. And as for Kobe, he can walk away from the game somewhat gracefully, keeping his assists totals up and shots down in the games he plays while allowing his beloved franchise to have the financial flexibility next season it desperately needs.

And then there’s that pesky top-five protected pick. If the Lakers finish with a good-enough record to push their 2015 lottery pick outside the top five, then they will forfeit that potential pick to the Phoenix Suns as part of the ill-fated Steve Nash deal. In other words, the more they lose, the more likely they are to receive a top-five pick instead of nothing. This certainly adds another piece to this season’s puzzle, although Lakers president Jeanie Buss maintains she will not pursue that strategy.

"I think it's impossible to tell your coach and tell your players, 'Try not to win.' That goes against everything an organization is about,” said Buss during an interview with Rick Fox and Jared Greenberg on Sirius XM’s Off The Dribble.

Yet, with the Western Conference as competitive as it is, the Lakers might not end up having a say in the matter. They aren’t particularly inspiring with or without Bryant on the floor, going just 8-17 with Kobe on the court and only 2-6 with him on the bench. These days, we never know what to expect from the Lakers and this season’s second half will be no exception.

But with so much hanging in the balance, the decisions made throughout the rest of the season may impact the team, and the NBA, for years to come.