Predictions for Each Top Offseason Acquisition's Career with Oakland A's
After a crazy offseason, the Oakland A's have a completely new infield, designated hitter and much more. But how effective will the new pieces be? How long will they keep Oakland competitive? How long will they be in Oakland, period?
The A's signed Billy Butler and traded for well-known names like Brett Lawrie, Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist and Tyler Clippard.
Additionally, the team acquired multiple prospects that are on the verge of contributing at the major league level.
If Oakland is to make the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, the new faces must contribute immediately and effectively fill big shoes left by Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss and others. Is it realistic to expect it can happen?
Let's take a gander at how the top offseason acquisitions' careers in Oakland will pan out.
Note: Multiple young pitchers are fighting for a spot in the rotation or bullpen. They won't be listed here because of the steep competition and because they are lesser known. Conversely, Marcus Semien is not as widely known yet, but his path to starting every day is easier because of less competition, so he will be listed.
Billy Butler
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Designated hitter Billy Butler finished 2014 with a .271 batting average and an on-base percentage of .323, both lows of his career. Still, those numbers aren't terrible.
Butler's power is down, too.
His isolated power (ISO) fell from .124 to .107 between 2013 and '14.
He struck out more. He walked almost half as much. His wins above replacement (WAR) dropped to the negatives (-0.3).
All of that said, Steamer projections have Butler rebounding.
According to those projections, Butler will not only have a better season in 2015 than he did in 2014, but the year will also possibly be better than 2013 in certain areas. Here is the projection:
146 games / 16 HR / 76 RBI / .274 BA / .346 OBP / 1.4 WAR
In looking at his splits, Butler has hit three home runs in 31 games at O.Co. If he maintains one home run every 10 games at home, he'd hit eight, one shy of tying his 2014 total. O.Co ranked one ahead of Kauffman Stadium in terms of HR Factor, just for reference.
Butler has a fresh start in Oakland with a new hitting coach and no worries about a contract for at least two years. The Steamer projections look reasonable for 2015.
As for the remainder of his Oakland contract: Butler will turn 29 in April. He will finish this contract at 31 years old. Being a designated hitter should save his body from injury. He can concentrate on hitting only and he should have plenty of years left in the tank.
The final two seasons could see a dip, as expected, but it shouldn't be too great of a decrease.
If the A's don't compete, Butler could be a great trade candidate to a contender in need of a potential power threat, whether that is at the deadline or this offseason.
Ike Davis
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Ike Davis appeared in only 12 games with the New York Mets before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. His 2014 time with the Mets wasn't great, but he picked it up after the trade.
Davis hit .235 with an on-base percentage of .343. He hit 10 home runs in 131 games and knocked in 46 runs.
Steamer has Davis appearing in 122 games, which makes sense because Oakland platoons quite a few positions. The projections say Davis will hit 17 home runs with 60 RBI and finish only slightly better at .239 with an OBP of .346.
The batting average is reasonable. The on-base percentage barely changes. It's the home runs that are a bit suspect.
In the last two seasons, Davis has hit nine in 2013 and 11 in 2014 (one in New York and 10 in Pittsburgh). He's capable of hitting in the 20s, as evidenced by a 32-home run season. However, let's temper the expectations a little. Something more like 14 home runs might be more reasonable.
Davis will turn 28 in spring, so he's nowhere near over the hill yet.
He could very well put up Moss-like numbers until he becomes a free agent in 2017, when the A's inevitably let him sign elsewhere for more money.
Brett Lawrie
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Brett Lawrie just turned 25 and won't be a free agent until 2018.
He's been injured a ton, and with those injuries, his 162-game projection (baseball-reference.com) has Lawrie hitting .265 with an on-base percentage of .323, 20 home runs, 74 RBI and 14 stolen bases. Steamer projections have him hitting .284, with an OBP of .324, 17 home runs, 65 RBI and seven stolen bases. That's over the course of 130 games.
The 130-game projection is more likely, based on Lawrie's injury history.
As for production, they're quite similar outside of batting average and stolen bases. Because Lawrie has trended downward for four straight years, the .265 average is more reasonable than a rejuvenation to .284.
Let's assume the Baseball Reference stats are the ceiling while the Steamer projection is the floor. That's not a terrible range to land inside of.
And to think, Lawrie could (and should, really) get better as he enters fully into the prime of his career.
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Marcus Semien
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Newbie Marcus Semien is one of the more curious cases for Oakland fans because we haven't seen a lot of the guy at this level.
Semien hit .261 in 2013 (21 games) and .234 in 2014 (64 games).
Looking at his minor league stats, it's still hard to know what exactly you should expect from Semien. So of course, we'll see what the Steamer projections have to say:
138 games played / 16 HR / 62 RBI / .239 BA / .317 OBP
It sounds like Semien is Billy Beane's guy, so there's little reason to believe he only plays 138 games unless he's injured or completely bombs.
The projected home runs and RBI total seem high.
Unless you're heavily touted (Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig), expectations for the first full year in Major League Baseball shouldn't be too high. The batting average and on-base percentage are fine. But Semien needs to hit 10 home runs before we expect almost 20. Likewise, he could be capable of 62 RBI, but if he's hitting at the bottom of the A's lineup, it's more realistic that he produces 35 runs.
As for the future, Semien is a wild card.
He could come from unheard of to holding down the position for years (like Mark Ellis did at second base) or play above average for a few years but ultimately always be replaceable (like Cliff Pennington).
Ben Zobrist
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Ben Zobrist has always had guys like Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria to carry the load while he quietly contributes. Well, now that the A's traded Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss and Derek Norris, it may be up to Zobrist to be the man.
Brett Lawrie and Billy Butler have power, but Butler's looking to prove he's not on a decline and Lawrie just needs to stay healthy.
How will Zobrist respond?
Some guys try too hard to be the man. Other guys naturally fall into the role. The jury's out on Zobrist. The "being the man" factor could have no bearing at all on Zobrist's performance.
Steamer projects him to maintain on-base percentage, decrease his batting average and increase his slugging percentage. In fact, compare his projected 2015 with his actual 2014, and they're very similar.
At 33 years old, if Zobrist hovers around the 2014 stats, no one should be upset.
That said, he's going to be a free agent at the end of the year. Because the A's intend to compete, because he might be the man in the heart of the lineup and because the team only gets his bat for one year, fans may expect more.
Ideally, he'd hit a minimum of 16 home runs with 80 RBI, a batting average of .275 and an on-base percentage of .360.
Tyler Clippard
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Tyler Clippard's biggest challenge will be switching from the National League to the American League.
Say he maintains similar stats, though, and you can expect him to keep an ERA under 2.50 and about 70 innings pitched. He should be good for about 75 strikeouts and 20 walks.
This is based on his last two seasons.
Steamer has him pitching in less innings, decreasing the amount of strikeouts per nine innings and increasing the amount of home runs he allows. This seems odd based on 2014 MLB park factors. Nationals Park saw more runs scored than O.co.
Clippard may find the switch to the AL comes with the advantage of not being well known. He may be able to surprise hitters with his stuff since they have not seen it at all or have seen very little (although he's been in the league long enough that there should be plenty of video on him by now.)
For the last four years, he has been consistent. For the last two years, specifically, he's been even more consistent.
So consistent, in fact, that it leaves little reason not to expect similar production in 2015.
Clippard will likely be one-and-done with the A's, entering free agency after the season ends.
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