Heisman Watch List 2015: Early Odds for 2015 College Football Season
The 2015 college football season is seven-plus months away, but it won't be long until we get our first Heisman Trophy odds board. Last year, Bovada released its first numbers on Jan. 24 and updated them in early February.
There is no reason to expect anything different in 2015.
The list that follows, however, is not a prediction of the first official odds board. The Vegas numbers are created based on public sentiment, on how the book thinks bettors will react to a line. Even if the book doesn't love LSU running back Leonard Fournette (which isn't necessarily true), it will rank him high because he's a big name who ended the season on a high note.
That is not we're going for. We're going for a subjective assessment of how the top 10 Heisman candidates should be valued, not how they will be. That means quarterbacks have higher odds than running backs (by virtue of having won eight of the past 10 Heismans), and factors such as scheme and raw stats are taken into account.
Sound off below, and let us know who else you would add.
15 Other Names to Consider
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The slideshow that follows includes the top 10 projected Heisman candidates. But more than just those 10 will create Heisman hype this offseason. Here are 15 other names worth watching.
- QB Kyle Allen, Texas A&M
- RB Corey Clement, Wisconsin
- RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State
- QB Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee
- RB D.J. Foster, Arizona State
- RB Leonard Fournette, LSU
- RB Royce Freeman, Oregon
- QB Jared Goff, California
- QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
- QB Jeremy Johnson, Auburn
- QB Cardale Jones, Ohio State
- QB Brad Kaaya, Miami
- RB Paul Perkins, UCLA
- QB Anu Solomon, Arizona
- QB Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech
10. Samaje Perine, Oklahoma
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2014 Stats
263 carries, 1,713 yards, 21 TD; 15 receptions, 108 yards
Why He's a Favorite
Samaje Perine led the Big 12 in rushing as a true freshman. He set the single-game FBS rushing record with 427 yards against Kansas. One year out of high school, he already had the size (5'11", 243 lbs) and strength to make defenders look like boys against a man. How much bigger, stronger and better can he get as a sophomore?
Words of Caution
Oklahoma loses four starting offensive linemen and tight end Blake Bell. It also adds air-raid coordinator Lincoln Riley from East Carolina. "One of the beautiful things of this offense, is that it can become whatever we need it to become," Riley crooned at his introductory press conference. But how much can that be trusted? East Carolina had 637 pass attempts to 433 carries in 2014.
Preseason Odds: 25-1
9. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
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2014 Stats
244-of-396, 3,449 yards, 27 TD, 11 INT; 210 carries, 986 yards, 14 TD
Why He's a Favorite
Dak Prescott kept Mississippi State in playoff contention all season. He put up Heisman-stratosphere numbers under a head coach (Dan Mullen) who helped Tim Tebow win the award at Florida. Top receivers Fred Ross and De'Runnya Wilson both return next season, and the defense will take (at least) a modest step back. Prescott needs to score, and score a lot, to win games.
Words of Caution
Will the defense take too big of a step back? If it does, Mississippi State won't win enough games for Prescott to contend. Defenses also exposed Prescott's arm down the stretch. When the running game didn't work, he struggled to make accurate throws in tight spaces. He might have missed his Heisman window last season.
Preseason Odds: 22-1
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8. Derrick Henry, Alabama
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2014 Stats
172 carries, 990 yards, 11 TD; 5 receptions, 133 yards, 2 TD
Why He's a Favorite
Derrick Henry led Alabama in rushing despite trailing T.J. Yeldon in carries. Yeldon was great, but it always felt like Henry was the (clearly) more talented option. In this regard, Henry's situation feels a lot like that of Melvin Gordon in 2014. Plus, Alabama loses quarterback Blake Sims and its top three receivers, along with Yeldon from the backfield, so it will have to rely on the run. It will have to rely on Henry.
Words of Caution
Alabama likes to spread the wealth, and it has the talent to do so. Damien Harris, a 5-star running back, committed to the Crimson Tide in January, and 5-stars don't normally sit. Henry is the lead dog, and he's a physical freak (6'3", 241 lbs, fast) on par with any back we've ever seen. But will he ever get enough work to win the Heisman?
Preseason Odds: 22-1
7. QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
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2014 Stats
93-of-137, 1,466 yards, 14 TD, 2 INT; 63 carries, 200 yards, 5 TD
Why He's a Favorite
He didn't throw enough passes to qualify, but Deshaun Watson was on pace to have the highest QB rating in America (188.57). And he was only a true freshman! Two of the past three Heisman winners were redshirt freshmen, so even though he's inexperienced, it's not like Watson is too inexperienced to win the award. Plus, he gets Mike Williams and Artavis Scott back at wide receiver.
Words of Caution
Injury issues. Watson broke his collarbone last spring. Then he broke his hand against Louisville. Then he tore his ACL against Georgia Tech. He'll spend the offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, and even if he makes a full recovery, he'll have his workload monitored the rest of his career. You can never be too safe with a player this fragile.
Preseason Odds: 20-1
6. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
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2014 Stats
203-of-314, 2,834 yards, 34 TD, 10 INT; 171 carries, 938 yards, 11 TD
Why He's a Favorite
J.T. Barrett finished No. 5 in the Heisman voting as a redshirt freshman. If he didn't fracture his ankle against Michigan, he might have made the trip to New York. On a per-game basis, he was the most statistically productive quarterback in Ohio State history. He has pinpoint throwing accuracy and 1,000-yard-rusher potential.
Words of Caution
Braxton Miller and Cardale Jones. The former was a two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year before tearing his labrum this offseason; the latter led Ohio State to the national title after Barrett's fractured ankle. All three players will be given a chance to win the starting job. If he didn't have to compete for his position, Barrett would be the No. 1 player on this list. Miller and Jones push him out of the top five.
Preseason Odds: 16-1
5. QB Connor Cook, Michigan State
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2014 Stats
212-of-365, 3,214 yards, 24 TD, 8 INT; 51 carries, 80 yards, 2 TD
Why He's a Favorite
Connor Cook led Michigan State to another Top Five finish—only this time, the Spartans leaned on the best offense in school history instead of their defense. The 6'4" senior has NFL-caliber tools and was thought to be a first-round prospect before returning. Games against Oregon and Ohio State give him big stages to play on too.
Words of Caution
Michigan State loses its top two receivers, Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery, along with underrated running back Jeremy Langford. Prior to 2014, this offense struggled with receivers failing to gain separation off the line. How much of that problem returns in 2015? It's hard to overstate how important Lippett was last season.
Preseason Odds: 14-1
4. RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
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2014 Stats
273 carries, 1,878 yards, 18 TD; 28 receptions, 220 yards
Why He's a Favorite
Did you see how he finished the season? In the Big Ten title game, the Sugar Bowl and the national title game, Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 696 yards on 76 carries. Ohio State returns its whole offensive line and loses top receiver Devin Smith, which means the running game should once again be a focal point.
Words of Caution
Did you see how he played the rest of the season? Elliott wasn't bad before his postseason run, but neither was he a future Heisman front-runner. The change coincided with Cardale Jones taking over for J.T. Barrett at quarterback. What if Barrett wins the job next season? Does this offense go back to how it looked through November 2014? If it does, Elliott won't have the numbers to contend.
Preseason Odds: 12-1
3. RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
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2014 Stats
219 carries, 1,547 yards, 14 TD; 18 receptions, 213 yards, 2 TD
Why He's a Favorite
Todd Gurley was suspended after the Vanderbilt game. In the eight games that followed, Nick Chubb never failed to top 100 rushing yards, twice topped 200 rushing yards and averaged 165.3 rushing yards per game. And, like Samaje Perine and Deshaun Watson, he did it all as a true freshman. Georgia doesn't know who its quarterback will be next season, but it does know who will catalyze its offense.
Words of Caution
Honestly, there's nothing not to like about Chubb's candidacy, other than the fact that he's a running back. Quarterbacks have won the past five, eight of the past 10 and 13 of the past 16 Heisman Trophies. It's hard to call any running back a favorite given the statistical improbability of one winning. But Chubb checks every other box.
Preseason Odds: 10-1
2. Cody Kessler, USC
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2014 Stats
315-of-452, 3,826 yards, 39 TD, 5 INT
Why He's a Favorite
Cody Kessler finished No. 4 in the country with a QB rating of 167.06. He finished top five in completion percentage (67.9) and passing touchdowns too. What's more, he did it behind an offensive line that relied on three true freshmen. With better protection in 2015, he has a chance to improve upon those numbers.
Words of Caution
USC lost receivers Nelson Agholor and George Farmer to the NFL draft. It also lost running back Javorius Allen, who finished No. 3 on the team in receiving. There is talent on the roster to replace that production, chiefly in the form of rising sophomore JuJu Smith, but it still warrants attention through the offseason. Agholor in particular was an All-America candidate. How will Kessler fare without him?
Preseason Odds: 8-1
1. QB Trevone Boykin, TCU
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2014 Stats
301-of-492, 3,901 yards, 33 TD, 10 INT; 152 carries, 707 yards, 8 TD
Why He's a Favorite
Trevone Boykin finished No. 4 in the Heisman voting in 2014, highest among returning players. And he returns to an offense that brings back just about every starter. Sonnie Cumbie and Doug Meacham have stayed in Fort Worth through the coaching cycle, which ensures continuity in terms of play-calling and scheme. What's not to love?
Words of Caution
Regression to the mean? Boykin was so much better in 2014 than he was in 2013 that it still doesn't feel sustainable. It still feels like a fluke. What if he was simply "hot"? It's hard to make that case after a 14-game sample, but what other case can one make against him?
Preseason Odds: 11-2
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
