Packers vs. Seahawks: Complete NFC Championship Game Preview for Seattle
By the time the Seattle Seahawks NFC Championship Game matchup with the Green Bay Packers rolls around, it will have been four-and-a-half months since their season-opening romp at CenturyLink Field. In the teams' Sept. 4 meeting, the Seahawks delivered an all-around dominant performance, winning 36-16.
Seattle racked up 398 yards on offense, including 207 yards rushing, and scored on its first three possessions of the game. The Packers finished the regular season averaging 386.1 yards per game on offense but were only able to muster a paltry 255 total yards in the game.
While that victory may be reassuring to the Seahawks and their fans, a lot of things can and did change for these teams over the last four-plus months. However, whether things have shifted in Green Bay's favor is yet to be determined.
The opening line for this Week 1 rematch opened with the Packers being 7.5-point underdogs, and it's been steady since. A Seattle victory gives it a crack at winning back-to-back Lombardi Trophies for the first time since the New England Patriots did it in Super Bowls 38 and 39.
2014 Regular Season Stats
| Green Bay Packers | Category | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 386.1 (6th) | Total Offense | 375.8 (9th) |
| 30.4 (1st) | Scoring Offense | 24.6 (10th) |
| 266.3 (8th) | Passing Offense | 203.1 (26th) |
| 8.3 (2nd) | Yards Per Attempt | 7.7 (6th) |
| 119.8 (11th) | Rushing Offense | 172.6 (1st) |
| 4.4 (10th) | Yards Per Attempt | 5.3 (1st) |
| 47.2 (3rd) | 3rd-Down Percentage | 42.5 (11th) |
| 346.4 (15th) | Total Defense | 267.1 (1st) |
| 21.8 (t13th) | Scoring Defense | 15.9 (1st) |
| 226.4 (10th) | Passing Defense | 185.6 (1st) |
| 6.9 (11th) | Yards Per Attempt | 6.3 (2nd) |
| 119.9 (23rd) | Rushing Defense | 81.5 (3rd) |
| 4.3 (20th) | Yards Per Attempt | 3.4 (2nd) |
| 40.3 (18th) | 3rd-Down Percentage | 37.1 (8th) |
Divisional Round Recap
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The Seattle Seahawks did not have one of their stronger defensive outings last week with the Carolina Panthers visiting, but they still managed to put their stamp on the game. Richard Sherman accounted for two of the team's three forced turnovers, and Seattle held the Panthers to 17 points in a 31-17 victory.
Offensively, the Seahawks generated several splash plays, averaging more than 10 yards per pass attempt despite a mostly nonexistent running game. It was a tightly contested game through three quarters, but as has been the case for several Seahawks games this season, when the fourth quarter rolled around, Seattle went to another level and finished the Panthers off.
News and Notes
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How the Sounders Kept the Seahawks in Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks were set to leave the North Pacific in 1996. The first stages of a move to Los Angeles had begun, shipping the team's equipment in a train of moving vans. With the eventual departure of the Seattle SuperSonics to Oklahoma City in 2008, the loss of the Seahawks 12 years earlier likely would have left the city with just a baseball team. For all the details on how the procession of moving vans and trucks from Seattle to Los Angeles was stopped, read the story by Les Carpenter of The Guardian.
Cheese Banned in Bainbridge Island City Hall
According to Section 3 of Executive Order (now this is serious) 121212, "Due to the relationship between the Green Bay Packers, their fans, and cheese, the possession of and/or consumption of cheese or cheese flavored products shall be banned in Bainbridge Island City Hall on Friday, January 16, 2015." The ban only applies to City Hall officials and lasts until the end of Friday.
Quote of the Week
Kam Chancellor on Aaron Rodgers and his calf injury, per The Seattle Times:
"I'm not really concerned with his hobbly or wobbly calf, whatever. I’m concerned about Aaron Rodgers. If he's in that game, no matter how he's feeling, he's still Aaron Rodgers. He's capable of making plays, capable of getting the ball downfield, getting it to his receivers and just running their offense. So you've got to respect a guy like that. No matter what's wrong with him, you can't doubt him or say that it's going to be a little different because he's hobbly and wobbly. You don't want any surprises, so just go in with that mentality and you won't be surprised.
"
Injury Report
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*All injury information gathered from Seattle Seahawks' team page.
Other than the season-ending ACL tear suffered by rookie wide receiver Paul Richardson, the Seahawks came out of last week's game relatively unscathed. Max Unger came up gimpy toward the end of Seattle's win over the Carolina Panthers, but the injury appears to have been minor.
Marshawn Lynch took his normal rest day on Wednesday, but he is as healthy as we can expect at this stage of the season. Getting Tony Moeaki back into the mix at tight end should bode well for the passing game, as he's proved to be a solid target when healthy.
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Matchups to Watch
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OLBs Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews vs. Justin Britt and Russell Okung
The Packers sacked Russell Wilson just once in their first meeting, but the pass rush generated a lot of pressure throughout the game. Having played against Seattle before and not having to worry about the headache that Percy Harvin was, Peppers and Matthews should be able to contain Wilson in the pocket.
Containing Wilson has often led to much better results for opposing defenses and has allowed them to rack up more sacks in the process. Seattle will need Britt and Okung to bring their A-games to limit Green Bay's success. Matthews, in particular, gave Seattle the most problems, so Okung has his work cut out for him.
RB Marshawn Lynch vs. the Green Bay Front Seven
As pointed out earlier, the Seahawks rushed for more than 200 yards in the Week 1 meeting. That wasn't an anomaly, as the Packers field one of the league's worst run defenses. Conversely, the Seahawks happen to be the league's top rushing team by a fairly wide margin.
The Seahawks don't need a monster performance out of their ground game, but rushing for 125-plus yards would go a long way. The Seattle defense would be able to get a bit more rest between drives, and the offense would likely sustain several time-consuming drives.
X-Factor: QB Aaron Rodgers vs. the Legion of Boom
I'm going to handle this in a broad spectrum, because a lot of things are going on here. Byron Maxwell was essentially inactive for last week's game against the Panthers due to shortness of breath, though he appears to be cleared for action.
If Maxwell is indeed capable of playing, we have a solid grasp of what to expect from the Seattle defense. In Week 1, Rodgers threw for just 189 yards. The presence of Richard Sherman had a clear effect on the Packers' offensive game plan. Rodgers never even looked in Sherman's direction during the game.
It was clear Maxwell would cover Jordy Nelson for the most part, and Randall Cobb would be in the slot. Green Bay picked on Maxwell early, but it wasn't effective enough for the Packers to sustain drives on a consistent basis.
However, if Tharold Simon has to take on a bigger role Sunday, it could prove to be Seattle's undoing. He allowed 10 catches for 114 yards and two touchdowns in last week's contest. He was an utter disaster in coverage against one of the league's worst receiving corps.
Ultimately, we won't know about Maxwell's health for sure until the day of the game. In Seattle's favor is Rodgers' performance against elite defenses this season. The Packers have faced three top-five defenses in road contests this year, and the results have not been pretty.
Against Detroit, Buffalo and Seattle, the Packers have averaged 12 points per game, while Rodgers has completed 54 percent of his passes for an average of 178.6 yards, with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Seattle secondary has the ability to put the onus on Eddie Lacy to carry the Packers offense.
Prediction
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The Packers have to play a near perfect game to come out of Seattle with a win. Eddie Lacy had some early success against the Seahawks in Week 1, but that eventually subsided. Green Bay will need a 120-plus yard rushing day from him, with a solid per-carry average.
Aaron Rodgers cannot afford to continue his trend of throwing more interceptions than touchdowns against elite defenses. His calf injury will not help in that regard, and the Seattle front should have an easier time of dragging him down for sacks. This appears to be a mismatch in my estimation.
Prediction: Seattle 37, Green Bay 20
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