Colts vs. Patriots: Complete AFC Championship Preview for Indianapolis
A trip to Super Bowl XLIX is on the line, and the Indianapolis Colts will be looking to pull off the upset over the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
It's been an impressive run for the Colts since falling 42-7 to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. Since then, they won their final regular-season game, then proceeded to take down the Cincinnati Bengals before pulling off the upset against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
But the focus now for Indianapolis is taking down the Patriots, a team that has looked the clear favorite to represent the AFC in this year's Super Bowl. The two met back in Week 11, but the Colts couldn't find an answer for New England's running game, losing 42-20 while allowing 246 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Head coach Chuck Pagano understands that this time around the defense is going to have to prevent the Patriots from establishing the run.
“We’re playing better run defense now than we ever have, so that’s a positive,” Pagano told Kevin Bowen from Colts.com. “We’ve got to prepare the same way we prepared last week. We’ve got to do a better job because if we’re not able to stop the run, we’re not going to have a chance.”
Stopping the run isn't the only thing the Colts will have to worry about on Sunday, but we will get into that in a bit. Having said that, here's the complete AFC Championship Game preview for the Colts as they prepare to take down their conference rival.
Divisional Round Recap
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Heading into the divisional round, plenty of experts picked the Broncos to beat the Colts. Even the more optimistic ones thought the Colts would have a chance, but that it would be a close one.
Few expected the Colts to win convincingly, but that's what they did.
It wasn't the brightest of starts for the Colts, as they went three-and-out on their opening drive and then allowed the Broncos to drive down the field and score a touchdown to go up 7-0 after a roughing-the-passer penalty kept the drive alive.
Things started to turn around in the second quarter. A 73-yard drive ended with a six-yard touchdown from Daniel Herron to tie it up, and then a strip-sack by Jonathan Newsome gave the Colts the ball back with great field position. Luck found Dwayne Allen to cap the drive off with a three-yard touchdown, giving the Colts their first lead of the game.
The Broncos were able to add a field goal just before halftime, but the Colts had all the momentum.
It was arguably one of the worst games of Manning's career, as he missed receivers consistently. That continued in the second half, making it hard on the Broncos to play from behind. Luck added another touchdown in the third quarter on a 15-yard pass to Hakeem Nicks to go up 21-10.
By then, it was pretty much over. The Broncos couldn't keep driving without a reliable passing game and were only able to add another field goal before the game was over. In the end, Manning went just 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown in the 24-13 loss.
That was an emotional game for the Colts, who took down their former quarterback in convincing fashion. They'll need that emotion again on Sunday if they plan on keeping up with New England.
News and Notes
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Colts Confident in Run Defense With a Healthy Arthur Jones
The Patriots dominated the Colts defense in their last meeting, but Indy was missing a key player on the defensive line at the time. Arthur Jones missed seven games during the regular season, but the 337-pound defensive lineman is hoping that he can be the difference-maker this time around against New England.
Jones' teammates haven't been afraid to talk up their teammate heading into this game. Veteran defensive lineman Cory Redding talked about Jones, according to Mike Wells from ESPN.com:
"He commands double-teams. He’s a huge competitor. Good pocket presence in the middle, he can push the guards into the quarterback. He just loves football. When you have a guy in the trenches that loves eating up double-teams, demands it, and if you block him one-on-one, he’s going to bull-rush to the quarterback or either run down the line and make tackles, it just makes our defensive line that much better. Having Art back in the lineup is huge for us.
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The run defense has been significantly better when Jones is on the field. As Wells pointed out, offenses have averaged 4.67 yards per carry with Jones off the field but only 3.73 yards when he's played. If Jones can keep playing on Sunday like he has in the past, the Patriots might have a bit more trouble trying to run the ball.
Bryan Stork Misses Patriots Practice Again
Rookie center Bryan Stork has improved as the season has gone on for the Patriots, becoming a key asset on their offensive line. However, it looks like the Patriots may have to play without him after he went down with a knee injury during last week's game against the Baltimore Ravens.
According to Jeff Howe from the Boston Herald, Stork missed his second straight day of practice on Thursday, and the Patriots are preparing to play without him. Colts fans know all about injuries to an offensive line and that the wrong moves to fill a hole can produce less-than-ideal results.
The Patriots might get by just fine without Stork, but there's also the chance that the Colts will start winning the battle in the trenches, so this will be something to keep an eye on if the rookie center can't play.
"Boom" Herron Has Come a Long Way
From being a guy who wasn't even expected to make the Colts roster to now being the team's starting running back, it's been quite a journey for Daniel Herron.
The third-year running back made the 53-man roster behind Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw to start the season. After Bradshaw went down and Richardson continued to struggle, the Colts finally turned to Herron, and it paid off. On just 78 regular-season carries, he ran for 351 yards and a touchdown.
Lately, Herron has showed off his versatility, making catches out of the backfield and even stepping up as a pass-blocker. His 18 receptions this postseason are the second-most on the team behind only T.Y. Hilton, and Herron has taken pride in his work ethic as he tries to become a better all-round player.
"My goal was always to come in here and get better each and every day," Herron told Zak Keefer from the Indianapolis Star. "Try to show the coaches something different each and every day, if it's pass blocking, running the ball, catching the ball out of the backfield, special teams, whatever it may be to get on this team. I'm still working, still not satisfied."
Sunday will be Herron's chance to officially break out on a national stage, so you can be sure that he'll give it his all, especially with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Vontae Davis | CB | Limited |
| D'Qwell Jackson | ILB | Full |
| Greg Toler | CB | Limited |
| Erik Walden | OLB | Full |
All injury statuses are from Thursday's practice via Colts.com.
Once again, the Colts were able to have all 53 players practice on Thursday, which is good news. However, the health of the two starting cornerbacks is in question, with both having to sit out on Wednesday with injuries.
Vontae Davis left Sunday's game before halftime, but he returned and finished the game. Meanwhile, Greg Toler is dealing with a groin injury. Both are expected to play against the Patriots, but if their injuries bother them, it might be harder for them to contain Tom Brady and New England's passing game.
Other than that, everything else is looking up. D'Qwell Jackson sat out Wednesday to rest, and a knee injury has limited Erik Walden through the first two practices. The defense will need everyone playing on Sunday if it's going to have a chance to stop New England's offense, and it looks like all of the starters will be ready to go.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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T.Y. Hilton vs. Patriots Secondary
One of the worst performances of the season for T.Y. Hilton came in Week 11 against the Patriots, as he caught just three passes for 24 yards. He'll be looking for a better performance this time around, but it won't be easy.
With players like Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and Brandon Browner in the secondary, the Patriots have been one of the better teams at shutting down opposing receivers. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots have been the seventh-best team covering No. 1 receivers, which won't make things any easier for Hilton.
We saw this past week that he can burn one of the better corners in the league in Aqib Talib. Now we'll just have to see if Hilton can do it again and possibly top his 103-yard performance in last year's playoff game against New England.
Colts Defense vs. Rob Gronkowski
I would put just one player down here, but it's truly going to take a team effort to find a way to contain Rob Gronkowski on Sunday.
He has looked as good as ever after tearing his ACL last season, catching 82 passes for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns during the regular season. He had little trouble last week against Baltimore's defense, picking up seven receptions for 108 yards and a score.
The Colts are going to have to get creative when trying to cover Gronk. There may be instances where they'll want to consider putting Davis on him, just because he is the Colts' best option in pass coverage. It's been difficult for the Colts to defend tight ends all year, as they ranked 27th in the league in covering them, according to Football Outsiders.
Bill Belichick knows how to exploit mismatches, and if the Colts aren't careful, Gronkowski could have a monster game.
Daniel Herron vs. Dont'a Hightower
Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton hasn't had a problem with airing it out in the playoffs, but he's going to need to trust Herron to establish some sort of offensive balance in order to keep the Patriots defense on its toes.
In order to open up the running game, Herron is going to need to keep an eye on Dont'a Hightower. With 89 tackles and six sacks in just 12 games, this has been arguably the best season of Hightower's three-year career. Despite missing a quarter of the season, his 27.1 overall grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) is the second-highest among eligible inside linebackers.
When Herron is running between the tackles, he'll need to stay low and do his best to avoid Hightower. At 6'3'' and 270 pounds, Hightower is going to be a tough defender to get past, but Herron has the vision to find holes and avoid defenders, which will be key.
Colts' X-Factor of the Week: Jonathan Newsome
Perhaps the biggest game-changing play of last week was Newsome's strip-sack on Manning. The rookie has provided a big lift for the Colts pass rush, and the team will need him to generate some pressure again this week.
Despite being drafted in just the fifth round, Newsome led the Colts as well as all rookies in the NFL with 6.5 sacks in the regular season. His length and burst off of the edge have given the Colts a true pass-rusher on the outside, with Robert Mathis injured and Bjoern Werner not producing.
Tom Brady was sacked just 21 times in the regular season, and his offensive line is solid. However, if Newsome can step up again, he might come up with another game-changing play that could give the Colts a chance to win.
Prediction
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No one comes up with a game plan to exploit mismatches quite like Bill Belichick, and that's going to make things hard on Indianapolis.
The Patriots running game shouldn't be as effective with Jones back on the defensive line and Stork possibly out at center for New England. But the Patriots should still have success on the ground, especially if they turn to LeGarrette Blount, who bulldozed over defenders for 166 yards and four touchdowns in last year's playoff game against the Colts.
Even if the running game doesn't work for the Patriots, they still have Tom Brady under center. The 37-year-old had a great year, throwing 33 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, and his decision-making could ensure that the Patriots offense plays mistake-free.
The reason the Colts have a chance in this game is their quarterback, Andrew Luck. The numbers haven't been great this postseason, but the third-year quarterback has looked as locked-in as possible, making some beautiful throws over the past two games. With plenty of weapons to work with, Luck's arm should keep the Colts in this one, even if the game starts to get out of hand.
I expect a late surge from the Colts to try to pull off a comeback, but it's hard to see them making it past a team as complete as New England. I've been wrong before, though, and Luck will always give this team a chance to win.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 27
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