Colts vs. Patriots: Complete AFC Championship Preview for New England
By all accounts, the New England Patriots head into the AFC Championship Game with a distinct edge in talent and experience over the Indianapolis Colts. Whereas the Pats are making their fourth consecutive conference championship appearance, this is unprecedented territory for most of Indy's young core.
However, that does not mean Patriots fans should start booking their tickets to Arizona. Although the Patriots pummeled the Colts 42-20 at Lucas Oil Stadium back in Week 11, all of New England's postseason losses in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era have come against teams they previously faced in the regular season.
With a new running back and stabilized line play, this is not the same Indy team that the Pats bullied around in November. Much of the personnel from that meeting have remained constant, but the two major changes favor Indianapolis—Dan "Boom" Herron has been an incalculable upgrade over the woebegone Trent Richardson at running back, while center Bryan Stork will likely be missing from the Patriots offensive line.
Thus, even though the Andrew Luck-era Colts have lost three meetings to New England by at least three touchdowns apiece, Sunday's game is unlikely to match that pattern. Read on for an in-depth look at the key matchups and factors for this conference championship tilt.
Divisional Round Recap
1 of 5
The Pats escaped against the Baltimore Ravens with one of the closest postseason shaves of the Brady-Belichick era, becoming the first team to come back from multiple 14-point deficits. According to Football Perspective's game scripts, New England trailed by an average of 4.8 points over the course of 60 minutes, which made this the most negative game script of any Patriots victory this season.
If you're not familiar with Football Perspective, just know that there were only 12 games during the regular season in which a team won with a more negative game script than the Patriots. In other words, this was truly a miraculous victory—one of the fortunate breaks any team needs to make a Super Bowl run.
The most distressing part of the game was how badly the Ravens exposed the Patriots front seven. In hindsight, it was probably unwise for the Pats to employ their heavy D-line personnel, as tackles Vince Wilfork, Alan Branch and Sealver Siliga all had issues moving laterally to avoid the cut blocks in Baltimore's zone-blocking scheme.
The other main concern was New England's inability to run the ball, though much of that was game plan-induced. Still, by rushing for a meager 13 yards, the Pats earned the dubious distinction of compiling the fewest rushing yards in any postseason win.
This week, the strength of both offenses is through the air. However, retaining some semblance of balance will be crucial against a pair of excellent secondaries. So while the focus may be on Tom Brady and Andrew Luck, the trenches may ultimately determine how successful the offenses can be.
News and Notes
2 of 5
Tavon Wilson an X-Factor?
A second-round selection in 2012, Tavon Wilson was a head-scratching choice at the time, and given his regression last season, many have written the Illinois product off as another Day 2 draft bust. But Wilson has surprisingly rebounded to carve out a larger defensive role in the second half of the season, and as ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss opines, he could play an underrated role against Indy's "12" personnel:
"The safeties are going to be key in this game, with Patrick Chung and Tavon Wilson in the spotlight. I have Wilson as a possible X-factor in this game. He's been playing well the last few weeks, with rising confidence, breaking to the ball with authority and delivering some big hits. You see the confidence the coaching staff has in him as his playing time rises (21 snaps last week).
"
Wilson has become the nickelback in New England's three-safety "big nickel" packages, serving as a hybrid linebacker, much like Patrick Chung. Unlike Chung, Wilson stays on the field in dime personnel as well, with dimeback Duron Harmon serving as a deep-half complement when the Pats play two-deep shells.
The big nickel grouping should be New England's base defense on Sunday, as the Colts frequently pass out of power-running sets (their play action is especially deadly). According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Wilson has played over 30 percent of the snaps just once this year, and that came in the preseason-esque Week 17 contest. Excluding that game, it's not hard to envision Wilson setting a season-high in snaps and playing an important two-way role in run support and pass coverage.
Kline to Get Starting Nod?
Among the Patriots' offensive line reserves, no player has drawn more ire than Josh Kline. While the second-year guard has had his share of struggles in limited duty, the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe suggests that the Pats should roll with the O-line that finished out last week's contest:
"Kline surpassed expectations last week in relief, but the offensive line drew the ire of Bill Belichick for failing to ignite the running game.
While it’s possible Belichick could opt for Marcus Cannon or Cameron Fleming over Kline, their playing experience points more to suitability as backup tackles. Plus, the Patriots have an established depth chart and rotation on gamedays, so it’s not as if Kline was thrown in on a whim last week.
"
Kline allowed 12 pressures over 160 pass-blocking snaps during the regular season, a 94.1 percent pass-blocking efficiency that would have ranked 57th out of 59 guards had he played enough snaps to qualify, per PFF. There's no sugarcoating his struggles; moreover, the majority of his snaps came over four starts, so it's not as if he was frequently trying to integrate himself mid-game, rather than having the week to prepare.
New England's no-huddle offense protected Kline and the rest of the unit against Baltimore, especially in the second half, as the Ravens rarely had time to pressure Brady on his three-step drops. It'll be interesting to see if a relatively vanilla Colts rush utilizes any more stunts or A-gap blitzes to test the interior line's communication, much like the New York Jets did to stymie the Pats offense when Kline started back in Week 16.
Auburn's Coates a Name to Watch
With the possible exception of Darrelle Revis' status, no Pats fan is really giving much thought to the offseason at this moment. Draftniks are already out in full force, however, and ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. recently released his first mock draft, giving the Patriots Auburn wide receiver Sammie Coates with the 31st pick (subscription required):
"Arguably the best athlete in all of college football, Coates isn't huge at 6-foot-1 and a little more 200 pounds, but he's a guy who can run in the 4.3 range in the 40, is exceptionally strong for his size (it shows on contested catches) and is a player who can create big plays out of very little. He averaged more than 21 yards per catch in 2014 and is the kind of player whom safeties have to be wary of...The Patriots have the ultimate matchup threat at tight end. And while it's not their style to look here, they could use one at wide receiver.
"
For New England, drafting wide receivers has gone roughly as well as confronting icebergs did for the Titanic. The Patriots hit on Deion Branch back in 2002 and accidentally ran into converted quarterback Julian Edelman in 2009, but the rest of the Bill Belichick's selections have been a disaster (excluding special teamer Matthew Slater). From Chad Jackson to Bethel Johnson to Taylor Price, wide receiver has been a significant blind spot for Belichick in the draft.
On the other hand, New England has had some success in trades and free agency, acquiring the likes of Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Brandon LaFell. There have been misses in that category as well (Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway, etc.), but in the first round, the early read here is that Pats seem likelier to invest in the trenches.
Injury Report
3 of 5
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Bryan Stork | C | Out |
| Brandon Browner | CB | Probable |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Probable |
| Chris Jones | DT | Probable |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | Probable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
Stork's likely absence is the big wrinkle this week, as the Pats offensive line has struggled when forced to dip beyond its customary starting five. The Patriots have not released the exact nature of Stork's injury, but medical experts have speculated about a potential MCL sprain. The real question is whether Stork can play if the Patriots reach the Super Bowl; given the three-week time frame from the injury to the game, that would likely be cutting it close.
Browner, Hightower and Jones are new additions to the injury report this week, but all will almost certainly suit up against Indianapolis. Hightower is still nursing the shoulder injury that caused him to miss a couple of games in the season's final month, while Jones and Browner suffered in-game injuries against Baltimore. But Jones returned to action, while Browner has already deemed his knee a minor issue.
Missing Stork is a blow, but one the Patriots should still overcome. New England has been fortunate on the injury front this season and is near full strength as the postseason winds down. This kind of injury luck doesn't come around every year (as the 2013 Patriots found out), which only makes the magnitude of this opportunity more significant.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray vs. Colts Front Seven
In the past two meetings against Indy, the Patriots have compiled a gaudy rushing stat line: 480 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Blount and Gray have been the principal stars, with each having a game in which he exceeded 200 yards and scored four times.
The Pats don't necessarily need to match those lofty standards to keep the offense balanced. However, it's far from a given that the Patriots can replicate that success, even while the personnel in the trenches remain mostly similar.
In the first meeting, New England essentially ran counters and power calls, staples seen in every running game. Their success was partially due to the offensive line's performance, but Indy also played a wildly undisciplined game, committing elementary errors that one would expect the team to correct this time.
More distressingly, the units have trended in opposite directions. In five games since Week 14, Blount and Gray have combined to average 3.7 yards per attempt while reaching the end zone just twice. Lest you think that's simply an arbitrary endpoint analysis, four of New England's five opponents ranked in the top 15 in run defense, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics.
Conversely, the Colts have not allowed a single 100-yard individual rusher since that Sunday night humiliation. The Patriots probably can't just roll out the same six-linemen "Jumbo" personnel, as Indy will be prepared for that. Instead, look for New England to pass to set up the run, ideally using no-huddle to set up those outside zone runs that fluster unprepared defenses.
Darrelle Revis vs. T.Y. Hilton
Andrew Luck and the Colts passing game will make their fair share of plays, but this matchup may determine whether they make enough to keep up with the Patriots. Revis largely shadowed Reggie Wayne in the Week 11 meeting, but injuries have essentially phased the grizzled veteran out of the offense. Consequently, most have anticipated that the Patriots will shift Revis to Indy's biggest threat in Hilton.
In last season's playoff game, the Pats had success limiting Hilton with a big press-cover corner, Aqib Talib. Hilton actually had 105 yards on just four catches, but a large chunk of that came on a 40-yard reception in which Alfonzo Dennard covered him. For the most part, Luck was unable to turn to his big-play threat to jump-start the Colts offense.
Revis has mostly locked down smaller speedy receivers this season, from Sammy Watkins to Golden Tate. He's allowed more than three catches and 70 yards just once this season, a benchmark Hilton has exceeded in all but four games this year (excluding a Week 17 game in which he suited up but mostly rested).
Most importantly, Revis will need to eliminate the deep balls that Luck feeds Hilton a few times every game. The Colts are mostly an underneath passing team, and Hilton is the changeup that complements their core concepts. If Revis can erase Indy's chunk yardage, it will force Luck to play a more precise game than he typically executes.
Chandler Jones vs. Anthony Castonzo
Indy's left tackle Castonzo has been a bedrock amid a constantly shifting O-line, as he's the only player on the unit to have started every game this year. His 96.5 percent pass-blocking efficiency ranked eighth among all tackles this season, as he gave up just two sacks in 726 pass-blocking snaps during the regular season, per PFF.
However, one of his worst games came against New England. Largely facing off against Akeem Ayers, Castonzo conceded four pressures, which tied his season high. The contest was just one of four games in which PFF gave him a negative grade.
Jones missed the game recovering from his hip injury, but since returning, he has reassumed his role as New England's best pass-rusher. Though he seemed quiet against Baltimore, Jones actually compiled a season-high 10 total quarterback pressures, including three hits on Joe Flacco. Since returning, he ranks eighth among all 3-4 outside linebackers in pass-rushing productivity (playoffs included), having compiled 19 total pressures.
Castonzo is a big step up in competition from undrafted rookie James Hurst, whom Jones largely squared off against last week. Luck is at his best when given enough time to improvise late in the down; given New England's dearth of pressure beyond the occasional A-gap blitzes, Jones is arguably the biggest key to rattling Luck and putting a cap on the number of big passing plays from the Colts.
X-Factor: Brandon LaFell
After setting career highs in virtually every statistical category and catching the game-winning touchdown against Baltimore, LaFell has earned recognition as an indisputably critical cog in the New England offense. Considering that many overlooked him in the summer while fretting over the potential of Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, LaFell is Exhibit A in the folly of preseason prognostication.
On Sunday, LaFell figures to draw Greg Toler most frequently. Indy doesn't switch sides with its corners, but LaFell spends the majority of his snaps on the left, which would match up with the defensive right corner (i.e., Toler). Vontae Davis has arguably been the league's best corner this year, so once again, LaFell figures to stand out as a primary component of the passing game plan.
However, this is far from a cakewalk. After struggling throughout an injury-riddled 2013 campaign, Toler has rebounded to become a strong complement to Davis, allowing the Colts to dictate the action with more press coverage. Toler has been especially impressive in the postseason, allowing just six catches on 16 targets for 58 yards, per PFF, racking up three pass deflections in that time.
LaFell was quiet in the first meeting, notching three catches on four targets for 62 yards. But the passing game wasn't a huge part of the game plan that night. If the Colts key in on the ground game, LaFell and Rob Gronkowski could easily become New England's most important offensive weapons.
Prediction
5 of 5The Patriots have destroyed the Colts in recent meetings by dominating in the trenches and forcing Andrew Luck into mistakes while he attempts to erase increasingly large deficits. That's a nice template to strive for, but given the recent forms of both teams, it's far from a given that the Patriots will replicate that winning formula so easily.
An interesting storyline for this matchup is that both teams have a fairly clear game plan for victory. The Pats experienced plenty of aforementioned success against the Colts, but Indy also proved it could stifle the Denver Broncos with a combination of press coverage and timely conversions from Luck and the offense in third-down and red-zone situations.
It's likely that this game will stretch each team's sub-package defensive backs. With so much strength on the perimeter, Luck and Brady figure to attack the likes of Kyle Arrington, Darius Butler, Patrick Chung and Sergio Brown at regular intervals. Each offense has the depth to rely on its secondary options if needed, especially if the defenses key in on the running games.
Ultimately, the Patriots possess more margin for error because of their versatile difference-makers. Rob Gronkowski, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower offer the playmaking ability that provides the threat of a game-changing play at any moment, a luxury the Colts don't have. Look for New England's depth to shine through in the second half against an Indy squad that should be tougher than many anticipate.
Prediction: Patriots 33, Colts 25
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
