What the Packers Need to Fix from Week 1 to Beat Seattle in NFC Title Game
Four months and 16 games is a substantial gap between any two matchups, but the Green Bay Packers can certainly look back on their loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 for guidance on how to avoid a similar fate Sunday in the NFC Championship Game.
These clearly aren't carbon copies of the teams that met in the season opener. Clubs change over the course of a season, with injuries, personnel decisions and internal development reshaping rosters and dictating philosophies. By kickoff, 136 days will have passed between the two meetings.
The setup won't be a perfect match. But failing to embrace and understand history is still daring the past to repeat itself, especially for the Packers—who fell by a 36-16 score back in Week 1.
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Green Bay probably wasn't 20 points worse than Seattle back in early September. An otherwise competitive game swung the Seahawks' way in the second half when the Packers made a number of crucial mistakes and Seattle pounced on opportunities.
It's now on Mike McCarthy's club to fix what went wrong in the first meeting. A trip to Super Bowl XLIX depends on it.
Here are the major areas Green Bay needs to get right the second time around Sunday:
Erase the Mistakes
Want to get blown out in the toughest environment in football by the defending Super Bowl champions? A good start would be making as many errors as the Packers made back in Week 1.
The mistakes came at every juncture, and many turned the game at critical times in the contest.
Let's run them down, one by one:
— On Seattle's first possession, Brad Jones dropped an interception at the Packers' 39-yard line. Green Bay would have taken over with good field position and the momentum swing of a turnover.
— Mike Daniels ran into the punter one play later, giving Seattle a first down. It turned out to be a three-point penalty. The Seahawks eventually kicked a field goal.
— Split sack by Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews wiped out by an illegal contact penalty on Jones.
— Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson failed to connect on a fairly routine route-throw combination to open the second half, with Rodgers' pass bouncing off Nelson's hands for a Seattle interception. The Packers had forced a punt to open the third quarter. The Seahawks kicked a field goal to go up 20-10.
— Green Bay's rushed fourth-down play near midfield resulted in a sack. The Packers wanted the play clock reset but didn't receive it. A timeout probably should have been called. The next time Green Bay touched the ball, Rodgers was strip-sacked for a safety. Both sacks were allowed by Derek Sherrod, who took over for Bryan Bulaga at right tackle. The Seahawks scored a touchdown following the safety punt, turning a competitive contest into a 29-10 game.
— After the Packers scored a quick touchdown to cut the deficit to 29-16, a third-down stop on Seattle's ensuing possession was negated by Jones' holding penalty. On the same drive, cornerback Casey Hayward bailed out Seattle on 2nd-and-long with a facemask penalty. The Seahawks melted more of the clock and scored a touchdown to wrap up the game.
The Packers don't need to play a perfect game Sunday because a perfect game isn't conceivable in a tough environment and against a team as talented as the Seahawks. Mistakes happen, especially in big games. But the Packers can't afford to have as many errors at critical times as Week 1.
Take away some of the more egregious mistakes from the opener, and it's likely the Packers are in a position to win the game. You can bet McCarthy and his staff mentioned this reality once or twice this week.
Tackling, Tackling, Tackling
One of the worst tackling performances of the season—by any team in any game—was delivered by the Packers in the opener. According to Pro Football Focus, Green Bay missed a season-high 18 tackles, with six starters whiffing on at least two attempts.
Running back Marshawn Lynch, the NFL's leader in broken tackles, forced nine misses and gained 53 of his 110 rushing yards after first contact. He scored both touchdowns off missed tackles.
The Packers probably can't do much about Lynch breaking a handful of tackles. Like Eddie Lacy, Lynch is too strong in his legs and core to get to the ground on the first attempt every time. But there's no way the Packers can miss nearly 20 total tackles and expect to win the game Sunday.
Some of the bigger misses weren't even on Lynch. Rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix—playing in his first regular-season NFL game—swung and missed as the last defender on Ricardo Lockette's 33-yard touchdown in the first half. Percy Harvin, now a New York Jet, forced two misses on his way to 41 yards rushing.
Helping the cause should be the reduction in playing time for former starters Jones and A.J. Hawk, who were overmatched physically in the opener. The two combined to miss five tackles, including four on Lynch. Both are now situational players, replaced by the far more physical Sam Barrington and Matthews inside.
The Packers need a similar tackling effort as last Sunday. Despite giving up 145 rushing yards to DeMarco Murray and the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay missed just five tackles. The result was 15 of Murray's 25 rushes gaining three or fewer yards.
Also, allowing 145 rushing yards in Seattle would be palatable given the fact that the Seahawks are averaging only 21.9 points this season when rushing for fewer than 150. Unlike the first meeting, the Packers must make Seattle grind for every yard on the ground.
Rushing Production
A gimpy quarterback. Potentially nasty weather with disruptive winds. An offensive line playing as well as any in football. A healthy, fresh Marshawn Lynch 2.0.
The NFC Championship Game is screaming for Eddie Lacy to take it over.
The Packers' second-year running back certainly didn't have much of a say back in Week 1, when he rushed for just 34 yards on 12 carries before leaving the contest with a concussion. His first two attempts in the opener went for 21 yards; his next 10 were good for just 13. Overall, Green Bay finished with 80 total rushing yards.
The Packers need more and are capable of it Sunday.
Arguably no offensive line improved more over the course of the season than Green Bay's, and Lacy is currently riding a 10-game streak with at least 100 yards from scrimmage. He rushed for 101 yards against Dallas last week and exactly 100 against the Detroit Lions' top-ranked run defense in Week 17.
Lacy has also rushed for at least 97 yards in six of the last seven games.
| at KC | L, 24-20 | 30 | 190 | 3 | 35:57 |
| vs. DAL | L, 30-23 | 36 | 162 | 1 | 22:21 |
| vs. SF | W, 17-7 | 32 | 140 | 1 | 28:58 |
| at CAR | W, 13-9 | 31 | 114 | 0 | 29:00 |
| at STL | L, 28-26 | 27 | 102 | 1 | 32:24 |
| at SD | L, 30-21 | 37 | 101 | 0 | 17:45 |
The Seahawks have been more vulnerable when teams can run the ball on their defense. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys beat Seattle while rushing for more than 160 yards this season. Overall, the Seahawks finished the regular season 2-4 when allowing 100 or more rushing yards.
The Packers need the running game to take them out of 3rd-and-long situations. Green Bay was 6-of-12 on third down in the opener but only 1-of-4 on third downs of 10 of more yards. Staying on schedule on early downs is vitally important to scoring points against a defense that simply doesn't give up big plays.
Receiver Separation
The Packers may have somewhat avoided Richard Sherman in the opener, choosing to sacrifice Jarrett Boykin to Sherman's preferred side and move Jordy Nelson around (and away from No. 25) to get the right matchups. But the bigger factor in play for Green Bay's inability to consistently move the ball through the air back in Week 1? Receivers simply weren't getting open.
Rodgers had precious few throwing windows. Sherman wasn't thrown at because his receiver wasn't open. Even when completions were made, separation was minimal; five Green Bay receivers caught passes, and not one averaged over 10 yards per reception. The Packers completed exactly three—yes, three—passes over 15 yards and only one over 20.
Green Bay needs Nelson and Randall Cobb to play like stars in a matchup like this, but the offense will at least bring more weapons to Seattle this time around.
Rookie Davante Adams has shown flashes of being an impact player, including last Sunday's 117-yard explosion against the Cowboys. Rookie tight end Richard Rodgers continues to make big plays, most notably the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter of the divisional round.
Even veteran Andrew Quarless has become a reliable option, with two or more catches in eight of his last 10 games. Aaron Rodgers should now have a greater level of confidence in his secondary options than back in Week 1.
Remember, the Seahawks blanketed the Green Bay receivers with Rodgers healthy and able to buy time. His mobility will continue to be significantly reduced Sunday, making it even more important for his receivers to get open within the framework of the initial play.
The Packers are clearly an improved team over the one that lost by 20 in Seattle back in September. A different result in Sunday's NFC Championship Game will now depend on if Green Bay can do a better job avoiding critical mistakes, tackling, running the football and getting open for No. 12.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
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