The Door Is Officially Still Open on Kevin Durant's MVP Repeat Bid
Between Anthony Davis going supernova, Stephen Curry starring for the NBA's best team and injuries that have cost him nearly a third of the season, you might think Kevin Durant's chance to repeat as MVP is long gone.
Not exactly. But it is a long shot.
Real long, actually. Still, it'd be unwise to rule out a guy like Durant, who obsesses over hierarchies, defining himself by where he's ranked on lists real and imagined.
Two years ago, he offered up the quintessential explanation of his mindset to Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated, via Ben Golliver: "I’ve been second my whole life. I was the second-best player in high school. I was the second pick in the draft. I’ve been second in the MVP voting three times. I came in second in the Finals. I’m tired of being second. I’m not going to settle for that. I’m done with it."
Durant climbed the MVP mountain last season, overtaking LeBron James and, at least in one sense, getting himself out of second place. Don't expect him to relinquish primacy without a fight.
It's not a question of Durant searching for his MVP rhythm, either. He's had it every time he's been fit enough to play this season.
Upon returning from his most recent physical setback, an ankle injury, he looked every inch the league's alpha dog, as Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman wrote: "Despite a two-week absence—his second injury hiatus of the season—Durant has quickly recaptured his MVP form. He has 108 points on 54 shots his past three games, including 34 and 18 during (a Jan. 2) 109-102 win over the Washington Wizards."
Durant's game is right where it needs to be. His per-36-minute averages stack up nicely against the ones he posted last year, and his shooting percentages are actually improved:
| 2013-14 | 29.9 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 50.3 | 39.1 | 29.8 |
| 2014-15 | 29.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 52.2 | 42.5 | 29.0 |
The real problem is that he's missed 24 contests already, meaning he'll finish with 58 games played if he goes the distance without any more time off. That number, 58, is significant because it matches Bill Walton's total during his MVP season in 1977-78.
No MVP (in a non-lockout season) has ever played fewer games than that, per Basketball-Reference.com.
In non-lockout years since Walton won, all but one MVP (Allen Iverson, 71 in 2000-01) has played at least 75 games. Durability is always a factor for voters.
Fine. That just means Durant will have to do more than simply play in all of his team's remaining games to overcome the time he's missed. It means he'll have to dominate—perhaps on a historic level.
You know, sort of like he did before spraining his ankle against the Golden State Warriors on Dec. 18.
Playing at or above the level he reached last year will be a must for reasons beyond KD's MVP pursuit. It'll be necessary for the Oklahoma City Thunder to assure themselves a playoff spot.
If we assume it'll take 49 wins to make the postseason in the Western Conference, which is what the No. 8 Dallas Mavericks needed to get in a year ago, OKC must finish the season with a 31-14 run. That'd be a winning percentage of about 69 percent—easily doable for a healthy Thunder team that won 72 percent of its games last season.
Of course, to get serious MVP consideration in a 58-game season, Durant would have to drag the Thunder much higher than the No. 8 seed. If KD catches fire for the next three months and helps Oklahoma City put together a 37-8 finish, good enough for 55 wins and, perhaps, a top-four seed, that might make his MVP quest a bit more realistic.
The Thunder's remaining schedule is the 12th hardest in the league, per Ed Kupfer, a Houston Rockets-employed analyst.
That could make a big late-season surge difficult. But if Durant is really going to force his way back into the MVP conversation, he'll have to do it by overcoming long odds. In a way, it's almost better that the Thunder's competition is so tough; it offers the potential for Durant to do something remarkable.
A monstrous run by OKC, led by Durant playing like a megastar, would surely resonate with voters who'd value a late push over an early absence. The recency bias is a powerful thing, and it could serve KD well here.
Of course, Durant will need a few other things to break his way as well.
Davis will have to stop redefining the term "breakout."
Curry will have to miss time, and/or the Golden State Warriors will have to stop winning 85 percent of their games.
Former teammate James Harden will have to cool off, and current teammate Russell Westbrook will have to stop playing well enough to split OKC votes.
Still, there's a shot.
Two years ago, Durant said he was tired of being second best. One year ago, he stopped being second best.
This year, he must fight to avoid slipping back to a frustratingly familiar position. Even if he finishes the season as the NBA's best player but doesn't take home the award that officially acknowledges him as such, one he worked so tirelessly to obtain last season, it would have to sting.
For a guy who has never lacked for self-motivation, that last little push could be enough to make a difference.
Get to it, KD. You've got your work cut out for you.
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