NFL Playoff Predictions 2015: B/R's Conference Championship Projections

Time flies when you're having fun.

It seems like only yesterday that the Green Bay Packers traveled to Seattle to face the Seahawks on opening night 2014, a game that ended in an emphatic Seahawks victory.

Well, those two teams square off again on Sunday in the same venue. This time, however, the stakes are ever so slightly higher: A trip to Glendale, Arizona and Super Bowl XLIX.

Of course, that isn't the only big game this weekend. The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will revisit their Week 11 matchup in Beantown on Sunday, another game that ended in a lopsided result.

And another game where the winner advances to the Super Bowl.

Who will this year's Super Bowl participants be? Who will shine in the conference championship games? Who will fade?

The Division and National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report have the answers to those questions and more, with a look at some predictions for this weekend's action.

Upset of the Week

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Winner: None (11 votes)

Three weeks of playoff games. Three weeks of our panel picking "none of the above" as their choice for the Upset of the Week.

Of course, you can't exactly blame them. Of the eight postseason games played so far this year, only two were won by teams labeled an underdog by oddsmakers in Las Vegas.

This week, both the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are favored by at least six points, according to Odds Shark.

Still, there were voters who think that an upset could be in the offing. For Bleacher Report NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse, that upset will leave Patriots head man Bill Belichick scowling:

"

The captain of the Colts' playoff run can't abandon ship now, right? No one is giving Indy a chance in New England, just as no one gave Indy a chance in Denver. Andrew Luck remains the motivating factor. Never underestimate what a special player at the game's most important position can pull off.

"

OK, so it will leave him scowling more than usual.

Who knows, maybe that's actually how he smiles. He is deceptive, after all.

Others receiving votes: Green Bay Packers (+7) over Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) over New England Patriots (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

Nick Laham/Getty Images

Winner: None (7 votes)

OK, so in some respects this is getting boring.

On the other hand, it bodes well for an exciting weekend of football action that the majority of our panelists don't see either conference championship fitting the mold of a blowout.

It's also more than a bit surprising. Both conference-title tilts are rematches of regular-season matchups.

And both those games were decided by at least 20 points.

However, as AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst pointed out, that was then...

This is now:

"

The conference championships are typically games that feature close battles until the very end, and this week is shaping up to be no different. While both home teams, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, have their respective advantages over their opponents, neither the Green Bay Packers nor Indianapolis Colts will be laying down without a fight. Both the Colts and the Packers have offenses that can go toe-to-toe with their home-field opponents and defenses that have improved with the possibility of a Super Bowl in their futures.

While there are teams with distinct talents—the Packers have Aaron Rodgers and his many weapons, the Seahawks have a prodigious defense, the Patriots have a solid pass rush plus Tom Brady under center and the Colts have a much-improved defense to pair with quarterback Andrew Luck—none seem to have enough over their opponent to warrant either of these contests resulting in blowouts.

"

There you go.

Others receiving votes: Seattle Seahawks over Green Bay Packers (3 votes), New England Patriots over Indianapolis Colts (3 votes)

Mismatch of the Week

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Winner: Seattle Seahawks run game vs. Green Bay Packers defense (10 votes)

Heading into Sunday's showdown between the Packers and Seahawks, we know a few things.

We know that Seattle can run the ball. The Seahawks led the NFL in that regard, averaging 172.6 yards per game. That was over 25 more yards per game than the second-place Dallas Cowboys.

We also know that the Packers struggled defending the run in 2014. The Pack allowed nearly 120 yards per game on the ground this year, good for 23rd in the NFL.

Then, as NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson writes, there's the not-so-small matter of the Packers' issues defending zone-read quarterbacks of late:

"

The Packers have faced a Russell Wilson-like quarterback during two of their last three playoff appearances. That's resulted in 279 rushing yards allowed to the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick. Of course, schemes change along with personnel, and over time the Packers have figured out this zany read-option trickery. But overall their run defense still surrenders some pretty chunky yardage (ranked 23rd during the regular season), including 207 yards the last time Seattle and Green Bay met in Week 1. That's not a recipe for success, especially at CenturyLink Field with a one-legged Aaron Rodgers.

"

It could mean a huge day for Seahawks tailback Marshawn Lynch, who will certainly have a lot to say about who wins this game.

Just don't ask him to talk about it after. Or before. Or ever.

Others receiving votes: Rob Gronkowski vs. LaRon Landry (1 vote), New England Patriots secondary vs. Indianapolis Colts receivers (1 vote), Green Bay Packers wide receivers vs. Seattle cornerbacks not named Richard Sherman (1 vote)

Top QB Performance

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Winner: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (7 votes)

There's something for everyone at the quarterback position in the Conference Championship Round. Veterans in Tom Brady of the Patriots and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. Young guns in Seattle's Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck of Indianapolis.

Any of that quartet could easily post the biggest game of the four.

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter went the veteran route with Rodgers, despite an injured calf and a matchup with the NFL's best pass defense.

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, on the other hand, thinks that youth will be served in New England:

"

I don't know if Andrew Luck can continue to play as well as he has the last two weeks in pulling Indianapolis up to the AFC Championship Game. But even if he can't, the most likely game script involves Luck throwing A LOT here. The Patriots are stout against the run (-10.4% DVOA, 14th) and the Indy running back tandem haven't set the world on fire thus far. I'm expecting this game to be solely in Luck's hands, and because of that, I'm expecting him to pile up the traditional yardage and touchdown totals even if we get some unimpressive turnovers and a middling completion percentage.

"

However, it was Wilson who won the vote here, fresh off a performance against the Carolina Panthers in which Wilson went 8-for-8 on third downs for 199 yards and three touchdowns while posting the fifth-highest passer rating in NFL postseason history.

As Wilson told Dan Hanzus of NFL.com, it was just another day at the office.

"Sometimes I think I'm made for these situations," Wilson said. "I try to be prepared for us, and when you're prepared, you're never scared. You just go."

A couple more games like that, and Wilson will hoist his second (straight) Lombardi Trophy.

And then holy crud is he going to get paid.

Others receiving votes: Tom Brady, New England Patriots (3 votes), Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1 vote)

Top RB Performance

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Winner: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (12 votes)

When last the Colts and Patriots met, New England running back Jonas Gray left jaws on the floor across the NFL, gashing Indy for over 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz thinks the Patriots will find success on the ground Sunday, but that it will be a different tailback doing the gashing.

"

Jonas Gray ran into our hearts and minds with an incredible 201-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Colts in the regular season, but he has fallen a long way since then and was inactive against the Baltimore Ravens. The running game could be resting its hopes on LeGarrette Blount, who had a big day in last year's playoff meeting with the Colts (166 yards, four touchdowns). After rushing for a combined 14 yards against the Ravens, look for the Patriots to get back to the running game against a team they've been successful running on in past meetings.

"

However, Marshawn Lynch of the Seahawks was the runaway choice as this week's top running back. Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers admitted to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that his defense faces a tall task in the Emerald City:

"

You have to wrap up when you tackle him. This guy’s strong and he runs a very aggressive nature. He attacks tacklers. So there’s times, based off where he is, you have to go low on him. You have to get the second and third guy there and you have to try to get the ball out.

"

A task almost as tall as the one faced by the poor reporters trying to get more than a one-word answer from Lynch in interviews.

Might as well give that up, y'all. It's not happening.

Others receiving votes: LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Top WR Performance

Kevin Casey/Getty Images

Winner: Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers (6 votes)

The vote for this week's top wide receiver was a two-man race separated by a single vote. NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon threw his support behind Green Bay's Jordy Nelson, who was quiet in last week's win over the Cowboys:

"

Nelson was quiet last week, but I'm thinking he gets back on track with another big day against Seattle. I doubt the Packers completely ignore Richard Sherman again, but they'll likely keep Nelson away from him on the left side. And since I think the Seahawks will build up a sizable lead at home, Nelson should see plenty of throws as the game wears on.

"

However, Nelson wasn't one of the two men in this race.

With that said though, it was one of Nelson's teammates who brought home the "win" in this category. Randall Cobb pulled down eight passes for 116 yards against Dallas, including a game-sealing grab on third down.

Cobb told The Associated Press (via the Los Angeles Times) that catch can be chalked up to the old adage "it's better to be lucky than good."

“It's unbelievable,” Cobb said. “For the ball to get tipped and magically appear in my area, you can't tell me there's not a God. That was a crazy play.”

Apparently, many of our panelists feel Cobb will be packing up that luck and taking it with him on the road.

Others receiving votes: T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (5 votes), Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (2 votes)

Top TE Performance

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (11 votes)

Well color me stunned.

It should hardly come as a surprise that Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots was the overwhelming choice of our voters as this week's top tight end.

Gronkowski led all NFL tight ends with 1,124 receiving yards in 2014. His 12 touchdown grabs tied for the league lead at his position. Last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Gronkowski reeled in seven passes for 108 yards and a score despite near-constant double-teams.

Granted, it wasn't a unanimous call. Two voters, including NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski, went with Luke Willson of the Seattle Seahawks:

"

It's easy to pick the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski in this category each and every week. However, Willson has proved to be a big-play threat over the last three weeks. In each of the Seahawks' past three games, the tight end made at least one catch of 28 yards or longer. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is also targeting Willson more consistently. Last weekend, the Packers allowed the Dallas Cowboys' Jason Witten to lead his team in receptions (6) and receiving yards (71). Willson should have the same opportunity Sunday.

"

However, when even the voters who don't pick Gronkowski allow that he's the obvious call, that should tell you something.

And that something is that it's going to be a long afternoon for the Colts defense, especially after they gave up four grabs for 71 yards and a touchdown to Gronkowski back in Week 11.

Others receiving votes: Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes)

Top Defensive Performance

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Winner: Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle Seahawks (4 votes)

The predictions for top defensive performance of the Conference Championship Round ran the gamut. Seven players received at least one vote, from beef-eating defensive tackles to defensive backs.

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier went the latter route, selecting New England Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis:

"

C'mon folks: Think like Darrelle Revis for a moment. Money, money, money, money, money, money, money. OK, stop now before you turn into Scrooge McDuck. Revis, as usual, is ready to turn into Rent-a-Revis and seek another fresh start and signing bonus once the Patriots decide next year's $12.5-million roster bonus ain't happening. Or maybe Revis wants to stay. Either way, he knows what he needs for leverage this time: some signature playoff shut downs. And that didn't happen last week. He knows he can blanket Hilton, get the Patriots to the Super Bowl, then either sign on with the next "one star away" team: maybe getting a taste of that sweet, sweet NHL cash by reuniting with Rex Ryan in Buffalo. So Revis will be actually paying attention on Sunday. That should mean a quiet day for the Colts passing game.

"

However, our leading vote-getter hails from quite a bit farther west and a bit closer to the line of scrimmage. Four experts chose Seattle Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, who piled up nine stops in last week's divisional round.

As The Associated Press reported (via The Argus Observer), if you want to know how important Wagner is to the Seattle defense, just ask him:

"

We’re (middle linebackers) the quarterback of the defense so I think we should get as much recognition as the quarterback. [But] it’s a fun position. We’re in the middle of everything. We have a job during the run, have a job on the pass, get sacks, interceptions, tackles. We’re pretty much involved. It’s the best position in my opinion.

"

Hey, the "Legion of Boom" has been called many things. Modest is not one of them.

Others receiving votes: Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle Seahawks (3 votes), Jamie Collins, ILB, New England Patriots (2 votes), Cliff Avril, DE, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Vince Wilfork, DT, New England Patriots (1 vote), Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots (1 vote), Seattle Seahawks team (1 vote)

Sleeper of the Week

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Winner: Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (4 votes)

Much like the vote for top defensive performance, there were a number of candidates who received some recognition as this week's surprise star in the making. Seven, in fact.

It was, however, a bit surprising that not one of those players hailed from the defensive side of the ball.

Call it the "fantasy football effect."

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown cast his vote for New England running back LeGarrette Blount:

"

I think Erik (Frenz) will have covered most of this by the time we get here, but the Patriots have rushed for 234 and 246 yards the last two times these teams have met. The Indy run defense improved over the second half of the season, and an injury to Pats center Bryan Stork may throw the line into a bit of disarray, but maybe Bill Belichick just has this run defense figured out.

"

Sure enough, Frenz also sided with a Patriots running back.

But it wasn't Blount:

"

This could be a big day for any Patriots running back, but it's hard to tell who. The Patriots have piled up more than 200 rushing yards in each of the past two meetings with the Colts, but the attack was spearheaded by LeGarrette Blount the first time and Jonas Gray the second. Shane Vereen has not been a huge part of the Patriots game plan this season, but he made his name known on the Patriots' ineligible receiver package last week against the Ravens. Something tells me Bill Belichick has a sneaky role in store for Vereen this week.

"

Bill Belichick? Sneaky?

Stop.

Others receiving votes: Dan Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2 vote), Brandon LaFell, WR, New England Patriots (2 votes), T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Flop of the Week

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

"Winner": Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers (3 votes)

There's nothing that haunts an NFL player's dreams more than the notion of falling flat in a huge game, of letting your team down on the brink of a trip to the Super Bowl.

If our panel is correct, there are quite a few players who won't be sleeping well this week. Seven different players received at least one vote, including an entire position group.

NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon committed what many Midwesterners would call blasphemy, nominating Aaron Rodgers as the Flop of the Week:

"

Rodgers wasn't himself in the first half against a mediocre Dallas defense last week. He got it together in the second half, but this isn't a matchup with the Cowboys and they aren't in Wisconsin anymore. Playing through pain will be a thousand times tougher against the NFL's best and hottest defense, especially on the road. Remember: Rodgers posted a passer rating of 'just' 94.2 away from Lambeau Field this season.

"

For AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, it was Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who has reason to toss and turn:

"

The last time the Pats and Colts played, the Pats held T.Y. Hilton to three catches for 24 yards. Without having Darrelle Revis shadow him.

I'm not a mind reader—I can't tell you that the Pats are going to use the same strategies in this game as they did in that one—but I don't see why they'd go away from what was ultimately a very successful way to limit the Indy receiving corps. Throw in the fact that Hilton has exhibited some rust and drops coming off a hamstring injury that may not be fully healed up, and I would be surprised to see him break 100 yards here.

"

The leading vote-getter, however, was Green Bay tailback Eddie Lacy, who gets the unenviable task of trying to pick up yardage on the ground in Seattle against a Seahawks defense that allowed all of 81.5 rushing yards per game this year.

Rodgers had best pray that calf is feeling better by Sunday.

Because he's going to have to stand on his head for the Packers to have a shot.

Others receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (2 votes), Dan Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Seattle Seahawks wide receivers (1 vote), None (1 vote)