Andrew Luck's Sack-Free Day Against Broncos Bodes Well for Colts

When I began scripting out how I thought the Denver-Indianapolis AFC Divisional Round game would go in my head, there were some things that I classified as "maybes" and some things that I classified as "givens." It was a given that the Colts needed a superb game from quarterback Andrew Luck. It was a given that they'd need to force a bad game from Peyton Manning to advance. 

It was a given to me that the Colts offensive line would give up several sacks to the Denver Broncos. They didn't allow any. 

They didn't allow a single sack to one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos finished 23rd in defensive Adjusted Sack Rate, yes, but the individual matchups were frightening on paper. All-world linebacker Von Miller and star defensive end DeMarcus Ware against backups and third solutions like linemen Joe Reitz and Khaled Holmes? Consider it done: Luck was going down multiple times.

Except, of course, Luck somehow didn't. 

Now, an interesting debate emerges between the eyes and the collected numbers. 

These eyes say that the Colts offensive line had a heck of a day, and that on several throws, Luck had all day to pick and choose his targets. Luck stepped up in the pocket plenty, sure, but he was never really running for his life. Colts coach Chuck Pagano praised the line thoroughly, according to ESPN's Mike Wells, saying they did a "stand-up job."

The numbers say that Indianapolis' win was more a matter of great fortune than one of dominance in the trenches. Pro Football Focus marked the Colts with no less than 15 quarterback hurries allowed, which is an obscene amount of pressure to deal out and come away with zero sacks. 

Player	Hurries Allowed	Hits Allowed	Rating
Anthony Castonzo	2	0	-1.5
Jack Mewhort	2	0	-1.1
Khaled Holmes	3	0	-4.0
Lance Louis	3	1	-3.6
Joe Reitz	2	2	-2.5

This number seems ridiculously high to me, as someone who watched the game. Occam's Razor brings us to two separate solutions: Either Luck's pocket presence is so good that it's somehow now underrated and overlooked, or PFF has mis-marked a few columns and checked a few wrong boxes. I come here to pass no judgement—I just find the dichotomy interesting. 

Regardless, the Colts' much-maligned line deserves some credit for coming out of this game with Luck unscathed. Trent Richardson's struggles and Luck's tendency to wait on receivers has sometimes put more emphasis on how bad this line is than has been merited. And, while most of their offensive line is composed of rank-and-file guys, left tackle Anthony Castonzo has had a breakout season protecting Luck's backside. 

Year	Snaps	Sacks Allowed	Hits Allowed	Hurries Allowed
2011	713	6	5	17
2012	1,283	10	13	35
2013	1,221	4	12	46
2014	1,344	2	9	24

I expect next Sunday will see the Patriots take some different tactics as compared to Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio's conservative approach. Per PFF (subscription required), Del Rio brought just 10 blitzes in 45 dropbacks. New England will probably send more pressure up the middle to force the Colts to rely on Holmes and right guard Lance Louis, the two clear weak links on this line. 

But, despite the presence of defensive end Chandler Jones, New England's seasonal sack rate is not very frightening. At 19th in Adjusted Sack Rate, the Pats are just a few decimal points ahead of Denver. 

If we give PFF the benefit of the doubt (I know, I know, but hear me out), we are left with the conclusion that Luck is eliminating a lot of issues for the Colts right now. Despite his two deep interceptions (try fighting for the ball sometime, Donte Moncrief), Luck has clearly elevated his game in both playoff wins for the Colts. He's the reason that they are here, and he's the reason they will continue to have a puncher's chance in New England. 

Because look, we can sugarcoat the Indianapolis roster all we want. This is the time of year where we can attach ourselves to the stellar play of role players and semi-stars and look at how they did in particular matchups. But what really matters for Indianapolis is how much Luck's star can continue to shine.

If Luck can continue to keep the negative plays to a minimum, playing poised and under control against a highly sophisticated Bill Belichick defense, we will then know that he has truly made the leap. 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.