Peyton Manning Avoiding Big Mistakes Vital to Broncos' Success vs. Colts

The key to the Denver Broncos beating the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Divisional Round is on the same ring as a fob to a Buick insured by Nationwide. Quarterback Peyton Manning is driving, and if he doesn’t crash, the Broncos will advance to take on the New England Patriots in Foxborough for a chance to win it all.

The defense and running game could be great against the Colts, but the story will still be about Manning because the quarterback is still the most important player on the field. In important games, the most important player must make key plays and avoid key mistakes.

Both making plays and mistakes have been a problem for Manning since a Week 9 loss to those pesky Patriots in New England, but he has enough support that the mistakes are the biggest single key to the Broncos' success. Manning has turned the ball over 16 times in the last nine games and thrown 17 touchdowns—an ugly ratio by his lofty standards.

Splits	Team W-L	Yards/Attempt	TD %	INT %	Fumbles Lost
First 7	6-1	8.5	8.7	1.2	0
Last 9	6-3	7.5	4.9	3.5	2
Home	8-0	8.8	8.0	1.5	1
Road	4-4	7.3	5.4	3.3	1
vs. Playoff Team	2-3	7.7	5.6	3.9	0
vs. Non-Playoff Team	10-1	8.0	8.0	1.8	2

Nearly two touchdowns per game should be enough to win in the postseason with a good defense and running game. When Manning throws at least two touchdown passes in the playoffs, his teams are 7-2. In both losses, he also threw two interceptions.

When Manning turns the ball over two or more times in the playoffs—as he has in five of the last nine regular-season games—his teams are 2-5. Both wins came in the year Manning won the Super Bowl in consecutive games when his defense held the opponent under eight points.   

The Colts have scored fewer than eight points just once this season in a meaningless Week 16 game against the Dallas Cowboys. Quarterback Andrew Luck sat out most of the second half of that game.

Anything can happen in the playoffs, but the Broncos probably don’t want to find new ways to win now. Manning throwing touchdowns is the winning recipe—Denver's best as long as he doesn’t make more big mistakes than big plays.

In the regular and postseason, Manning’s teams are 26-45 when he throws two or more interceptions, 129-42 when he throws two or more touchdowns and 16-21 when he does both. Clearly, the mistakes have been a bigger factor than the scoring when it comes to helping his team win games.

Split	2+ Touchdowns	2+ Interceptions	2+ TD and 2+ INT
Regular Season	.753 (122-40)	.375 (24-40)	.457 (16-19)
Postseason	.778 (7-2)	.286 (2-5)	.000 (0-2)
Comined	.754 (129-42)	.366 (26-45)	.432 (16-21)

The Broncos have looked for different ways to win football games, and that’s OK. Strange things can happen in the playoffs, so it’s good to be prepared. But in the end, the best way for them to win football games is riding Manning’s arm.

"We've tried to find different ways to win football games and hopefully that prepares us well when you get into these playoff games and anything can go on," Manning said via Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. "Different games take on different identities. You never know what it's going to be, but I think we've proven we can win games differently and hopefully that serves us well potentially on Sunday."

Anything can go on. Hopefully. Potentially. This indicates that Manning sees the second half of the regular season as postseason preparation and not necessarily the new identity of the offense.

Colts head coach Chuck Pagano expects tight end Julius Thomas, who has fallen out of favor recently, to be a big part of the Broncos’ plans. If he is, that suggests Manning is leading the way and not the running game.

“Probably a monster,” Pagano said of Thomas via Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post. “We expect to see Julius at his best.”

The Colts might expect the Broncos to go pass heavy again. That still gives the Broncos the best chance to win, and the running game and all that stuff will come in handy if the Colts can slow them down.  

There’s also no better way to preserve a lead than to run the ball and play good defense. Having a defense that can make a timely stop can help a team get back into a game. The defense can slow a pass rush by going up against the run. It all works together like a big machine, but Manning is the super computer that makes it all work, and the success or failure will ride on him.

The good news for the Broncos is that Manning at home has been a lot better than he has on the road. The Broncos were 8-0 in Denver in the regular season, where Manning has thrown 21 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Avoiding mistakes and making big plays at home hasn’t really been the problem, even though he didn’t throw a touchdown in either of his last two home games and he turned the ball over three times.

When the Broncos played the Colts in Week 1 at home, Manning tossed three touchdowns in a 31-24 victory. The Broncos are hard to beat at Sports Authority Field, but the Colts were one of two teams that came closest.

Two straight three-and-outs by the Broncos in Week 1 gave Luck and the Colts a chance to drive to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. It took a play by rookie cornerback Bradley Roby on fourth down to seal the win. The Broncos have a stronger running game now and the defense is playing even better, but it has been necessary because Manning’s play has been uneven.

When the Broncos were down 10-7 against the Cincinnati Bengals, Manning threw a lazy pass behind tight end Julius Thomas and didn’t see the defensive back flashing down to make the play. The velocity of the pass and the placement made it difficult for Thomas to wrestle it away.

The Bengals scored four plays later to go up 17-7. A Manning mistake put the Broncos in a hole that took them nearly two quarters to erase. A long kick return set up one scoring drive and Manning orchestrated two others, finding wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for touchdowns twice.

Then Manning made another mistake, but this time it was a combination of a mental mistake and a physical one. With the Bengals in Cover 2 with man coverage underneath, he audibled a pass to that side, but Adam Jones didn’t blitz as he had expected.

NFL GameRewind

Manning forced the throw, didn’t have enough velocity on it and Jones undercut the route and made the interception. It’s a big mistake from Manning not only because of the bad throw, but because he didn’t need to force it since slot receiver Wes Welker was open for a short gain. Welker was one missed tackle away from a first down on 2nd-and-12, but at worst the Broncos still had another down to work with.

The Broncos were lucky in this case that they were going against Andy Dalton and not a good quarterback. Even after climbing back into the game, another Manning mistake thwarted the Broncos’ comeback.

On 3rd-and-1, Manning threw the ball late as if his intention was to hit Thomas for a first down and compounded the problem by throwing off his back foot when there wasn’t a pass-rusher within three yards of him. The ball floated and Dre Kirkpatrick took the interception back for a pivotal touchdown.

NFL GameRewind

Worse was the fact that running back C.J. Anderson was wide open for the first down. Manning had a passing lane and time to hit him if only he had come off his first read.

Big mistakes by Manning against playoff-caliber teams have been the single biggest struggle for the Broncos this season. In five games against postseason teams, Manning turned the ball over nine times and lost three times, but the two victories have been at home.

It’s hard to tell just how much Manning’s thigh injury has contributed to the bad throws. Manning got two days off during the bye week to rest it, which indicates that it indeed has been part of the issue. It’s the mental errors that are more concerning, but so far, those have been mostly limited to road games, which is a problem for another week.