5 Things the Packers Must Do to Beat the Cowboys in the Divisional Round
The Green Bay Packers will attempt to get back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2011 when they take on the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round Sunday at Lambeau Field.
The frozen tundra hasn't been particularly kind to the Packers in recent postseasons. In fact, Green Bay has just one home playoff win in three tries since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting quarterback in 2008.
The Lambeau mystique can be revived in an instant if the Packers beat the Cowboys Sunday and advance to play the Seattle Seahawks in the conference title game.
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Here are the five most important things the Packers must do to beat Dallas in the divisional round:
1. Protect the Football
No stat means more in determining playoff winners than turnovers.
Case in point: Five of the Packers' six playoff losses since 2004 have included two or more turnovers. Conversely, the Packers have produced 15 postseason games with one or fewer turnovers since 1993, winning 12 and losing only three (including last January vs. San Francisco).
Want to dramatically increase your chances of moving on in the playoffs? Don't put the ball on the ground, and don't throw it to the other team.
Protecting against giveaways will be especially important Sunday.
| Packers Wins (12) | 21 | 6 | +15 |
| Packers Losses (4) | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Cowboys Wins (13)* | 31 | 15 | +16 |
| Cowboys Losses (4) | 3 | 11 | -8 |
The Cowboys finished second in the NFL in takeaways this season, with 31 total and a league-high 19 on the road. When Dallas delivered two or more takeaways in a game, the Cowboys were 10-0 overall (including postseason) and 6-0 on the road. With one or fewer, the club's record dropped to 3-4.
Dallas also won or tied the turnover battle in 11 games. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys finished 11-0 in those games, including 7-0 on the road. When the turnover margin was negative, Dallas was just 2-4—with three losses by 10 or more points.
The Cowboys forced three turnovers and had just one giveaway in beating the Detroit Lions in the NFC Wild Card Round.
The Packers have not been easy to take the football from in 2014, especially at home. Green Bay has just five home giveaways: four lost fumbles and one interception (from backup Matt Flynn). Quarterback Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown a home interception since Dec. 2, 2012, and his only lost fumble at home since Dec. 9, 2012 came back in Week 2 of this season, when he and rookie center Corey Linsley botched a snap against the New York Jets.
The Packers finished 9-1 when winning the turnover margin this season, including a 6-0 mark at home.
2. Get an Early Lead
There's no easier way to limit an elite running back than to establish an early lead. The Cowboys and DeMarco Murray should be treated no differently.
Dallas trailed by 10 or more points after the first quarter three times this season. Murray, who averaged almost 25 carries and a league-high 115.3 rushing yards a game in 2014, received just 61 total carries and averaged 88.7 yards over those three games.
Just last Sunday, the Lions raced to a 14-0 lead in Dallas, and Murray finished the contest with a season-low 19 carries.
The cause-effect is obvious: jump out to an early advantage against the Cowboys, and suddenly quarterback Tony Romo becomes the centerpiece of the offense, not Murray. Fewer carries for the league's most productive running back and less balance for the Cowboys offense is a win-win for any opposing defense.
| vs. CAR | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| vs. PHI | 17 | 24 | 33 |
| vs. MIN | 14 | 28 | 32 |
| vs. CHI | 14 | 42 | 41 |
| vs. NE | 13 | 9 | 5 |
| vs. ATL | 0 | 24 | 6 |
The Packers are certainly no strangers to early leads at home. In fact, Green Bay has led by 13 or more points after one quarter and 24 or more points at halftime five times this season at Lambeau Field. The Packers have also only trailed after one quarter or the first half once, way back in Week 2 against the New York Jets.
No strategy against Murray is perfect. But facing an offense placed in Romo's hands is certainly favorable over one shared equally by the passing game and Murray. The best option for the Packers to turn the Cowboys uncomfortably one-dimensional is to continue their first-half dominance at home.
3. Zero Special Teams Mistakes
Wild Card Weekend showed exactly why special teams still matter in the postseason.
Errors by the game's third and far less loved unit laced the viewing experience in Carolina and Dallas. Two were especially fatal. A late fumble by Cardinals returner Ted Ginn doomed Arizona, while Sam Martin's 10-yard punt helped set up the Cowboys' winning drive over the Lions.
In Pittsburgh, the Steelers nearly found new life with a blocked punt in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens.
After allowing seven blocked kicks of their own and a poor season punting and returning kickoffs, the Packers know all too well about making special teams mistakes. The goal in Green Bay this postseason is now much more about limiting mistakes than creating big plays.
Amazingly, not one of the seven allowed blocks cost the Packers a win. The protection errors served as nothing more than minor encumbrances during otherwise comfortable wins. Credit this reality to some luck.
Yet tempting fortune can only last so long, especially in the postseason. Any blown protection on special teams Sunday could easily help turn a game between two 12-win teams in the regular season.
Coordinator Shawn Slocum, assistant Ron Zook and head coach Mike McCarthy have had a week off to correct the mistakes and find the right adjustments. The operation still might not be perfect Sunday. The Packers can only hope for an uneventful day on special teams, the transitional but still vastly important third area of the game.
4. Allow Pressure on Less Than 30 Percent of Dropbacks
Aaron Rodgers has been hurting since Green Bay's win in Tampa Bay in Week 16. He will undoubtedly be affected by his calf injury Sunday. This is a fact of life the Packers will have to deal with, because a gimpy Rodgers at 70-80 percent is still probably the best quarterback in the game.
The key for the Packers is ensuring Rodgers' likely limited mobility isn't a game-breaking alteration.
The five men in front of Rodgers—a group that has emerged as one of the best offensive lines in football in 2014, especially protecting the passer—accomplished the task in Week 17. The Packers asked Rodgers to drop back to pass 23 times against the Detroit Lions, and only seven (30.4 percent) were put under any sort of pressure. Rodgers wasn't sacked, and he endured only one hit.
Protecting the quarterback is always vital, but it became exponentially more important with Rodgers stuck in the pocket and unable to break containment in a scramble situation. Shielded from harm, a visibly hurting Rodgers proved he can be equally dangerous while stationed in the pocket as he is when the threat of throwing on the run is an option.
And let's be perfectly honest: The Lions' front four is significantly more talented than the one Dallas will bring to Green Bay Sunday. The Cowboys do not possess a high-caliber player like Ndamukong Suh or Ziggy Ansah. Lambeau Field will not provide the fast track some pass-rushers feed off. On paper, the Packers should handle the Cowboys pass rush without much of an issue.
Dallas will likely be inclined to send pressure after a hurting Rodgers. His injury might still limit his ability to extend plays, situations where he's the most clinical quarterback in football at beating the blitz.
The onus is on Green Bay's now (rightfully) celebrated offensive line to keep Rodgers clean. He's bailed them out plenty in the past; Sunday would be another golden opportunity to repay the favor.
5. Have the More Efficient QB
Looking for rocket science or some out-of-this-world discovery in the fifth and final goal? Not needed. Playoff games, like regular-season games, are won and lost at the quarterback position. Sunday at Lambeau Field figures to be no different.
Check out the stats that back it up.
The Cowboys were 12-0 when Tony Romo had a passer rating at 98.0 or above in 2014. They were 1-3 when he didn't, including an 0-2 mark when it dipped below 90.0. The Packers were 12-0 when Rodgers was over 98.0, and 0-4 when he wasn't.
(Amazing how nicely passer rating often correlates to wins.)
What about these playoffs? Quarterback efficiency still rule? Yep.
Here's a look at passer ratings and the winning team from Wild Card Weekend:
| ARI at CAR | R. Lindley (ARI) | C. Newton (CAR) | Winner? |
| 44.3 | 82.6 | CAR | |
| BAL at PIT | J. Flacco (BAL) | B. Roethlisberger (PIT) | Winner? |
| 114.0 | 79.3 | BAL | |
| CIN at IND | A. Dalton (CIN) | A. Luck (IND) | Winner? |
| 63.4 | 104.0 | IND | |
| DET at DAL | M. Stafford (DET) | T. Romo (DAL) | Winner? |
| 87.7 | 114.0 | DAL |
Romo and Rodgers possessed the two best passer ratings in the NFL during the regular season. It's not a surprise both of their teams won 12 games and a division title.
A number of crazy happenstances can unfold Sunday at Lambeau Field, but the team that advances to play in the conference title game will almost certainly be the one with the more efficient quarterback after 60 minutes of play. It's just how the game works, especially in the playoffs.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
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