Miami Dolphins Free Agents: What Will It Take to Keep Key Dolphins?
Before the Miami Dolphins can dig into free agency too deep, or even narrow down NFL draft options, some in-house work must be done. Retaining key free agents can help the team reduce the pressure to sign outside talent.
The Dolphins have several key players who are slated to be either unrestricted or restricted free agents this spring. Tough decisions are looming, as overspending could be as damaging as moving on without a proper backup plan.
By considering the age of each free agent and the depth of the other available talent this offseason, we will predict the deals that Miami will need to retain their biggest contributors. We’ll also consider Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grades for benchmarking purposes, since NFL agents are sure to use any evidence possible that they’re clients are worth more money, and PFF does a great job of providing perspective on performance.
Let’s jump in and project the deals that Miami can expect to shell out if they want to bring back their top free agents. Would you make these deals? Leave your thoughts below in the comments section.
The Price for Jared Odrick
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The best player hitting free agency this year for the Dolphins is defensive tackle Jared Odrick. Miami’s 2010 first-round pick has had two solid seasons in as many years and certainly deserves to be brought back at the right price. According to Pro Football Focus, Odrick created 18 quarterback pressures and made 19 solo run stops.
His overall grade of 9.0 ranks as the 19th-best in the NFL, and this comes one season after he was the 16th-best tackle. If nothing else, Odrick provides a solid interior option along a unit in which Miami absolutely needs talent.
The 27-year-old will be facing stiff competition for a rich deal. Take a look at other defensive tackles projected to reach the market. Besides Ahtyba Rubin, everyone on this list graded better than Odrick via PFF:
| Player | Former Team | Age | Pro Football Focus Overall Grade |
| Ndamukong Suh | Detroit Lions | 28 | 27.5 |
| Terrance Knighton | Denver Broncos | 28 | 12.7 |
| Dan Williams | Arizona Cardinals | 27 | 11.5 |
| Nick Fairley | Detroit Lions | 26 | 9.8 |
| Ahtyba Rubin | Cleveland Browns | 28 | -14.3 |
It’s important to consider what type of player Odrick is. He’s disruptive, but not overly so in the pass game. He’s really more of a 3-4 end because he can eat blocks and does the dirty work that doesn’t show up in the stats sheet.
Projecting the type of deal that Odrick deserves is difficult because most defensive tackles have one discernible trait that tempts teams to reward them handsomely. Lacking impressive quickness, Odrick has a bit of a unique game. Instead, we’ll project based off impact and value for the team instead of comparing play styles.
Here are some comparable deals that have been done in recent years already, according to Over The Cap:
| Player | Team | Years | Average Annual Value |
| Linval Joseph | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | $6.25 million |
| Henry Melton | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | $6.875 million |
| Jason Hatcher | Washington Redskins | 4 | $6.875 million |
Of the group, Joseph seems to be the closest in talent and comparison. Joseph signed a five-year pact worth $6.25 million a year with the Minnesota Vikings last offseason, and that should be what Odrick is paid.
Projected deal: 5 years, $31.25 million
Curious Case for Charles Clay
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Similar to Odrick, Charles Clay is a two-year contributor and a player who the Dolphins have put a lot of time and effort into as he’s blossomed. The former sixth-round selection has been a nice starting tight end for the Dolphins, ranking 15th in the NFL by PFF for all tight ends in 2014 despite dealing with a nagging knee injury.
At the same time, we must realize that Clay is an undersized, hybrid player who has been put in a bigger role than ever expected. Had Dustin Keller stayed healthy in 2013, Clay wouldn’t have produced his breakout season. So what does all of this mean?
Well, Clay may have topped out as an average tight end. His next contract should be structured with his ceiling in mind so Miami isn’t stuck overpaying a small, receiving tight end.
The tight end class around Clay is fairly weak. The best available players can be seen below:
| Player | Former Team | Age | Pro Football Focus Grade |
| Julius Thomas | Denver Broncos | 26 | 5.4 |
| Jordan Cameron | Cleveland Browns | 26 | -10.2 |
| Jermaine Gresham | Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | -3.5 |
| Virgil Green | Denver Broncos | 26 | 5.7 |
| Lance Kendricks | St. Louis Rams | 26 | -3.7 |
Thomas, Gresham and Cameron are all more talented than Clay if healthy, despite their grades. Each have elite size and offer more red-zone presence. Again, like Odrick, lacking an elite trait could hurt Clay’s potential deal.
The most comparable player to Clay is Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker. Walker is undersized like Clay, and has spent time in various roles. In terms of value, Clay is worth what Walker was paid in 2013.
Projected deal: 4 years, $17.5 million
Derrick Shelby's Restriction
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The Dolphins’ top nickel rusher is a restricted free agent, meaning that Miami can tender him a one-year contract. If any other team offers him a multiyear deal, Miami has the option to match and retain Shelby, or allow him to leave for draft-pick compensation.
Shelby has been a valuable piece in his first two years because of his ability to defend the run as a defensive end and tackle. He has a specific role but he does it well, earning a run grade of 6.7 by PFF. He made 20 run stops in 2014 in only 420 snaps.
Since Miami doesn’t have to give Shelby a multiyear deal, and can get away with a cheaper, one-year tender, it should take that route. The higher the tender offer, the higher the potential draft pick if another team signs Shelby.
The most common tender for an offer sheet is $1.528 million, according to Joel Corry, via CBSSports.com. That’s a great value for Shelby, and Miami shouldn’t hesitate making that offer.
Projected deal: 1 year, $1.528 million
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Bringing Michael Thomas Back
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Miami may be facing a lot of turnover in its secondary, as it could lose safety Louis Delmas and cornerback Cortland Finnegan, so retaining a core special teamer and solid defenseman like Michael Thomas is a must. Thomas ended 2014 on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, but showed the ability to play free safety and nickel cornerback effectively before that.
Thomas has only been on an active roster two seasons, and he hasn’t been able to play a full season yet, so his free-agent value should be at a bargain price for the Dolphins. If his medicals check out, Thomas should return.
The Dolphins defense needs to retain some talent from 2014, even if everyone isn’t a proven playmaker. It’s just not possible to churn the entire roster, or a majority of it. Bringing back Thomas should be cheap and prove to be a solid decision.
Projected deal: 1 year, $570,000 (minimum deal)
Could Jimmy Wilson Return?
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There are few players who have a story more interesting than Jimmy Wilson, who served 25 months in prison before the Dolphins signed him after his acquittal on murder charges. The adversity that he’s fought through to make the NFL is incredible, and until 2014 he’s been a solid player.
As a nickelback and safety, Wilson was one of the best role players leaguewide in 2013. He earned a coverage grade of 3.2 by PFF, and allowed a passer rating of just 75.7 in 61 targets. Wilson served as a bargain as Miami utilized his versatility and soundness in coverage.
Unfortunately, 2014 was not so kind. Wilson was the worst defender in the Dolphins’ secondary, earning a combined grade of -7.4 from PFF. He allowed a 108 passer rating in just 41 targets this past campaign. Often, Wilson was found out of position in coverage and allowed costly third-down conversions.
If Miami wants to retain Wilson in hopes that 2014 was just a bad season, it should be able to cheaply. The Dolphins gave him the chance to play in the NFL before anyone else, so if Miami offers him a deal, it’s hard to imagine Wilson leaving.
Projected deal: 1 year, $570,000 (minimum deal)
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting and analyst for eDraft.
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