Biggest Overachievers and Underachievers for Miami Heat so Far This Season
After 35 games, the Miami Heat’s 15-20 record is good for just 19th in the NBA. Because they have the good fortune of playing in the enfeebled Eastern Conference, Miami would still make the playoffs if the season ended today—albeit as a No. 8 seed—but this nonetheless marks a precipitous fall for a franchise that is still, technically, a four-time defending conference champion.
But within this broadly disappointing, if not entirely unexpected start, there are bright spots—players who have exceeded expectations and found success even in the midst of a largely dismal season. And there have been disappointments too. Below is a look at the handful of Heat players who have over- and underachieved the most in this still young season.
Overachievers
We’ll start with the good news.
Despite a season that, in the most generous possible interpretation, is merely a bridge to the next era of competitive Heat basketball—and this interpretation might not be far off; the summer of 2016, and even 2015, free-agent classes look mighty enticing—a handful of Heat have overperformed relative to expectations.
Chief among them is Chris Andersen. The 36-year-old power forward/center struggled mightily to start the season, so much so that certain analysts—present company included—thought the big man was done.
On Dec. 7, I wrote this:
"His game, across every meaningful statistical category, has collapsed. Per Basketball-Reference.com, his defensive (15.9), offensive (7.1) and total rebounding rates are each the lowest of his career. His 3.8 block percentage is 42 percent under his career average and, if it held up, would be the lowest single-season mark of his career.
His true shooting percentage, from last season to this, has plummeted from 68.3—one of the best marks in the NBA—to 45.6, one of the worst. His usage rate has dropped, and his turnover percentage has doubled.
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But, lately, Andersen has been stellar. He shot 64.3 percent in December after returning from injury and is yet to miss a shot in January. (Granted, he’s taken just three.) Consequently, his true shooting percentage is all the way back to 63.4, and his win shares per 48 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com, has surged to .130—30 percent above league average.
Andersen isn’t the only pleasant surprise on the roster, either.
Luol Deng, a season after stumbling in Chicago before getting traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, has had a fine bounce-back season in South Beach.
After signing a two-year, $20 million contract with Miami as a (wildly inadequate) consolation prize after LeBron James bolted this offseason, the forward has been perhaps the most productive member of the 2014-15 Heat.
Deng’s 14.3-point, 4.8-rebound and 1.8-assist nightly average obscures his actual value. His 58.7 true shooting percentage is the highest of his career, and his 4.05 wins produced, according to Boxscoregeeks.com, leads the franchise.
Underachievers
Of course, it’s not all good news in Miami. Several players who, to varying degrees, are relied upon have failed to elevate their games to the expected levels. In some cases, this is because the expectations were too high to begin with. In others, the shortcoming is more difficult to pin down.
The most disappointing member of the Heat this season has likely been point guard Norris Cole. Cole made headlines this offseason when he was elevated to the starting point guard spot ahead of incumbent Mario Chalmers. Cole’s numbers had been gradually trending upward over the first several seasons of his career. This affirmation boosted expectations for the fourth-year guard—suffice it to say, he hasn’t been able to fulfill them.
Cole, always a poor shooter, is hitting only 38.5 percent of his attempts this year, a career low. According to Basketball-Reference.com, his 45.8 true shooting percentage ranks last among all Heat regulars, and his 5.8 percent total rebound percentage places him second to last. By measure of win shares per 48 minutes, Cole is producing at just 8 percent of the league average, his lowest total since his rookie season and, again, last among all Heat regulars. In every way, he’s been a dud.
The case against Josh McRoberts isn’t quite so overwhelming, but he too has disappointed. In 2013-14 for the Charlotte Hornets (nee Bobcats), McBob was a revelation: The then-26-year-old shot 36.1 percent from the three, played credible defense and established himself as perhaps the best passing big man in the NBA.
But since coming over in an offseason signing, the power forward has struggled to find his footing. Due to an assortment of injuries, he’s played just 17 of Miami’s 35 games, and for only 17.4 minutes a night during those contests.
And, when he’s suited up, he hasn’t been great either. McRoberts is averaging just 8.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.7 turnovers per 36 minutes, each figure a step back from where he was a season ago, the latter one dramatically so.
McBob does have one thing going for him: He’s still a very good shooter. His 61.3 true shooting percentage is the best of his career. But even this area of modest success comes with a caveat: He’s only attempted 53 shots on the season.
While the Heat have their fair share of over- and underachievers, on balance this has obviously been a trying season. But it’s one that may soon be forgotten. Regardless of whether the Heat make the playoffs this season—and the fact that this is in question really underscores the depth of the team’s problems—there are better days ahead. Miami has established itself as a winning team and a free-agent haven. More likely than not, this season will just be a blip on the radar. Or, to put it in South Beach parlance, a stray cloud on an otherwise sunny day.
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