Bengals vs. Colts: Why Wild-Card Matchup Is Different from Teams' First Meeting

No matter what went down the first time, this weekend's wild-card matchup was going to be different from the same contest earlier in the season.

Unfortunately for the Indianapolis Colts, that's not in their best interest.

The first meeting between Indy and the Cincinnati Bengals this season came on October 19, and turned out to be the game of the year for the AFC South champions.

While the offense hummed along to a comfortable 27 points, the defense served up its first shutout since a Week 17 win against the Tennessee Titans in 2008.

The Colts had officially established themselves as a power in the AFC, having rattled off five straight wins, including two against eventual playoff squads in the Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens.

But was Indy really the dominant force it appeared to be that day?

Probably not.

Instead, it was clearly facing a lifeless team that was hitting their low point of the season.

Superstar wide receiver A.J. Green played the same number of snaps that you did, sitting out his second straight game with a toe injury.

Green is currently dealing with a concussion suffered in Week 17 and may miss this game as well.

Rookie badass—also plays running back—Jeremy Hill was not yet getting the reps that would later turn him into a bona fide Rookie of the Year candidate. He totaled just four touches and 15 yards, despite Giovani Bernard getting broken into a crumpled heap of agony by Vontae Davis and having just seven carries himself.

Leon Hall, the Bengals' top cornerback, left the game early and watched as his assignment, T.Y. Hilton, hauled in seven catches for 107 yards on nine targets.

With all of these issues, Cincy managed to convert a not-so-good zero of their first 11 third downs.

Zero.

The team ended up 1-13 on third downs after de facto No. 1 receiver Mohamed Sanu caught a 32-yard jump ball in the fourth quarter.

That's what happens when your top two offensive weapons are sidelined.

If Green can't go this weekend, obviously that will bode well for Indy's chances of a repeat win. But if he does, the implications aren't good.

Since that shutout in Week 7, Indianapolis has endured three losses in which they gave up 42 or more points. The defense has been obliterated by the run—the New England Patriots ran for 246 yards and four scores—and the pass—the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys combined for 772 passing yards and 11 touchdowns.

And even if Green can't go, Hill is a dangerous player that the team really didn't have to account for in their first meeting with the Bengals.

The rookie tailback totaled 1,124 rushing yards, good for eighth-best in the NFL. He also reached pay dirt nine times on the ground, tying him for third-best amongst all players.

Meanwhile, as the Bengals offense established its identity as a power-run team, Indianapolis turned into the team that couldn't hold onto the ball.

From Week 12 on, Indy was as bad as anybody—worse, really—at catching and protecting the ball.

Week 12	0 ints	6 fumbles	3 fumbles lost
Week 13	1 int	3 fumbles	2 fumbles lost
Week 14	2 ints	4 fumbles	2 fumbles lost
Week 15	1 int	1 fumble	1 fumble lost

A quick look at SportingCharts.com induces another face palm-inducing reaction, as the Colts led the league in drops this season (and by a pretty comfortable margin). This was aided by Colts receivers dropping the second-highest percentage of catchable balls of any team.

The reality is, Indianapolis has struggled mightily since its Week 7 shellacking of Cincinnati. It finished by going 6-3 after that game, but all three losses came against the only playoff teams it faced after Cincy.

Indy went only 2-4 against 2014 playoff-bound teams overall, and that drops to 2-5 if you include the surprising also-ran Philadelphia Eagles.

Without any semblance of a successful running game—Indy averaged 3.9 yards per carry this year—the team is unlikely to do any real damage in the 2014 playoffs.

Beating Cincy again is a definite possibility, but don't expect the Colts, who were red-hot the first time around, to once again steamroll the Bengals, who were basically reduced to human waste in that game.

Then again, the Bengals are still rolling with Andy Dalton, so another blowout isn't that unlikely.