Predicting the Biggest Breakout NBA Players of 2015
The 2014-15 NBA season has seen numerous breakout players since opening day. However, with nearly two-thirds of the year to go, there are opportunities for others to step up as we head toward the playoffs.
Omitted from consideration are players who have already broken out. Consider guys such as DeMarcus Cousins, Brandon Knight and Jimmy Butler in that category.
Also left out are players who have been pleasant surprises, but aren't going to shock us with another boost of production. We're talking about guys such as Nikola Vucevic, Draymond Green and Tony Wroten.
No; this won't be a list of 10, 15 or 20 players who could break out. We're looking at only the top candidates, and that's an exclusive list with plenty of basketball yet to be played.
Honorable Mentions: Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond
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Josh Smith is gone. The experiment failed, and as a result, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond are left as the two frontcourt hopefuls for the future of the Detroit Pistons.
We'd like to say these two have a solid chance of becoming stars with Smith gone, but quite frankly, Detroit is still the third-worst team in the dreadfully awful Eastern Conference.
With the new-look Pistons hoping for success in a post-Smith era, Drummond and Monroe are potential stars during the latter half of the season. Both have underachieved, but both have an opportunity to increase their production with more looks.
At this juncture, Monroe is averaging the fewest points (14.6), fewest shot attempts (11.7) and fewest rebounds (9.0) since his rookie year. His field-goal percentage (47.3) is also the lowest since his first season, lending hope that there's plenty of room to improve.
For Drummond, there's nothing wrong with averaging 12.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 49.8 percent. Those numbers, however, are below what he posted last season (13.5 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 62.3 FG%), and 2014-15 was supposed to be his true breakout campaign.
The good news is that with Smith gone, the keys to the frontcourt castle have been handed over to these two big men. Unfortunately, we just can't count on anyone from the existing roster as a "star in the making," as it pertains to immediate success.
Drummond is the more likely of the two candidates, but the question is: Are we too far into the 2014-15 season for either to push toward stardom with a 7-23 record?
Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Giannis Antetokounmpo has the potential to be great. Just ask B/R's Ric Bucher:
"The rudiments are there, both physically and talent-wise. And, he's playing at a position now, that when you talk to people around the NBA—a versatile small forward that can initiate your offense, that can spearhead your defense, whether it's as a shot-blocker or defending the ball—is exactly what you need to be successful.
"
That description was in response to a question Bucher proposed: Can Antetokounmpo be a top-10 player?
Although the Greek Freak isn't going to crack the top 10 this season, he has a chance to establish himself as a household name. With Jabari Parker out for the year, the Milwaukee Bucks need someone to step up.
That's exactly what Antetokounmpo has done in his second season.
| MPG | PPG | RPG | SPG | BPG | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | PER* | |
| 2013-14 | 24.6 | 6.8 | 4..4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | .414 | .347 | .683 | 10.82 |
| 2014-15 | 27.4 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | .495 | .176 | .732 | 15.45 |
This team is in a push for the playoffs, and there is a very real chance for Antetokounmpo to live up to the hype.
*Personal Efficiency Rating (PER) is courtesy of ESPN.com.
Marcus Smart
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Rajon Rondo is out, which means it's time for Marcus Smart to officially become the point guard of the future for the Boston Celtics.
Although Smart is set to share time with Jameer Nelson—and even Evan Turner—the drafting of the former is about to pay dividends. Smart is 20 years old compared to Nelson, who is 32, and he'll be the floor general leading the team into the future.
Smart is also healthy. He's only played 15 games all season, but a healthy post-New Year performance should make a difference in his overall efficiency.
Although Smart breaking out won't lead to immediate stardom, it's an expedited step toward becoming relevant right away. He's currently averaging just 5.4 points, 2.2 assists and 2.2 rebounds per game, but those numbers have a chance to rise as the team prepares him for a more prominent role.
Don't expect the Oklahoma State product to become an All-Star right out of the game. However, climbing the Rookie of the Year rankings is a distinct possibility with the makeup of the current Celtics.
Bradley Beal
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Following Bradley Beal's heroics during the 2014 playoffs, the 21-year-old was projected to be one of the breakout stars of 2014-15. As B/R's Josh Cohen stated before the year, "Elevated play in the postseason can be a precursor to improved future performances, or it can be a small-sample-size aberration."
He continued by saying, "In the case of Bradley Beal, the Washington Wizards have to hope they just witnessed the former."
Although we haven't seen it yet, the former should be around the corner. Beal's season started off on the wrong foot. More accurately, it started off with a broken wrist.
Now healthy, Beal is a three-point threat. His overall numbers are down from a year ago (14.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 3.5 APG), but his efficiency is up. He's shooting a career-high 42.7 percent from the field, and an elite 46.1 percent from long distance.
The only problem is that Washington is 28th in attempts from downtown. If the Wizards—the No. 1 team in terms of three-point percentage—can get Beal more opportunities from long range, they'll be setting up the third-year player for a breakout after New Year's Eve.
Nicolas Batum
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Nicolas Batum's start to the 2014-15 season has been disappointing. He's shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor (25.6 percent from long range), but the second half of the year should see him improve—as long as he stays healthy.
So far this season, Batum has dealt with wrist and knee injuries. He's also coming off a World Cup appearance with France, and as CSNNW's Dwight Jaynes recently stated, "Privately, Batum gives the impression he's fatigued from his long summer of playing for the French national team in the World Cup."
For the Blazers swingman, breaking out doesn't mean becoming a 20-points-per-game player. Portland doesn't need that with LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard leading the way.
What improving would mean is shooting a higher percentage. It would also mean threatening Wesley Matthews for third-scorer recognition and doing the little things.
In 2013-14, Batum averaged just 13 points per game, but he did it while grabbing 7.5 rebounds, collecting 5.1 assists and shooting 46.5 percent from the field.
Consistency is key when it comes to Batum. Staying healthy and staying efficient will be enough to boost him into the next tier of player on a league-wide perspective.
Josh Smith
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The Josh Smith experiment was a complete failure with the Detroit Pistons. The 6'9" forward was forced to split time between the 3 and the 4, and his shooting percentages (39.1 FG%, 24.3 3PT%) were just about as low as they'd ever been.
Following a move to Clutch City, the Houston Rockets are hoping for the exact opposite.
As B/R's Zach Buckley put it, "The Houston Rockets weren't in the market for a savior, and they won't be asking versatile forward Josh Smith to fill such a role."
In Houston's system, Smith will take pressure off James Harden and Dwight Howard to score without having to play superhero. In Detroit, there was a need for someone to step up—a need that Smith took upon himself with a team-high 14 shots per game in spite of his struggles.
With the Rockets, Smith needs to boost the team's mid-range game while conceding hope that he'll contribute from the three-point line. If he can do this, while also defending the rim alongside Howard, he'll be set for a new beginning in 2015.
