7 NBA Teams That Should Be Hitting Panic Button Entering 2015
The first two months of the 2014-15 NBA season weren't kind to every team, leaving some with their finger on the figurative panic button as the calendar flips to 2015.
Certain squads have experienced dismal luck in terms of injuries, which could thwart a potential title run down the line. Others have fallen far short of preseason expectations, leaving management to ponder whether to be buyers or sellers at February's trade deadline.
Both short- and long-term circumstances help dictate whether teams should be panicking heading into the new year. The Philadelphia 76ers own the league's worst record, but they've shown signs of legitimate friskiness following an 0-17 start to the season, giving Sixers fans a modicum of hope once more.
The New York Knicks, on the other hand, appear as rudderless as ever, with few legitimate avenues of improvement available in the imminent future.
Beyond the Knicks, which teams should be pressing the panic button heading into 2015? Based on the direction their respective franchises are embracing, the following squads stand out as those with the largest concerns.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Fresh off quelling concerns about their slow start to the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers went back to DEFCON 1 on Christmas Eve. That was the day they learned about Anderson Varejao's season-ending Achilles tear, which could prove to be a death blow for an already beleaguered defense.
The Cavaliers rank 22nd in terms of defensive rating, coughing up 105.6 points per 100 possessions, and the figures only get uglier when examining their rim protection. They allow the league's highest field-goal percentage at the rim (.569), and all but a few of those games came with Varejao.
Following the Cavs' 103-80 blowout loss at the hands of the Detroit Pistons on Dec. 28, LeBron James didn't mince words when speaking with reporters. "Right now we're just not very good in every aspect of the game that we need to be to compete every night," he said.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Varejao's injury will cause the Cavaliers to "intensify what had already been a determined search for a center who can help protect the rim." Cleveland had previously sniffed around Memphis Grizzlies center Kosta Koufos, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, and Denver Nuggets center Timofey Mozgov, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst (via CBSSports.com's James Herbert), but nothing has come to fruition yet.
If the Cavaliers have any intention of winning the 2015 title, they'll need to make a move between now and the Feb. 19 trade deadline. The last team to win a championship without a top-10-ranked defense was the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers (21st of 29), but they had an in-his-prime Hall of Fame big man named Shaquille O'Neal patrolling the paint.
LeBron James may appear to have superpowers most nights, but even he can't coax this roster as currently constructed into defending at a top-10 level. If Cleveland can't swing a trade for a legitimate rim protector, James and Co. will be hard-pressed to survive the Eastern Conference bracket, much less win the title.
Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets could be on the precipice of entering a free fall.
In January alone, they're facing road games against the Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, along with home tilts against Memphis, Dallas, the San Antonio Spurs and the Washington Wizards. They'd be lucky to win more than a handful of those contests.
Even if they sweep their other six January games, there's a strong chance they'll be on life support in the Western Conference playoff race come Feb. 1. At that point, Denver's management could commence a fire sale, according to Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher.
"Owner Stan Kroenke never has shown a great deal of patience for mediocrity, especially when he's bankrolling a decent player payroll, and more than one league source anticipates heads rolling if the Nuggets are not in playoff contention," Bucher wrote on Dec. 24.
ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz described the Nuggets as a "menagerie of mismatched parts, and that's true whether one wants to install a color-by-numbers offense or run the floor with abandon." If Denver falls out of the playoff race over the coming weeks, there might not be a single player on that roster who should feel 100 percent secure about his long-term future in the Mile High City.
Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers are teetering dangerously on the brink of being slaves to their present instead of focusing on their long-term future.
Every off-balance, double-covered 20-foot jumper from Kobe Bryant threatens to further alienate his teammates, casting doubt over the team's ability to attract marquee talent over the next year-and-a-half. After the Lakers thumped the Golden State Warriors on Dec. 23 sans Kobe, the quotes from his teammates spoke volumes.
"It was a good team win. We just had a lot of energy, and it was a lot of fun from the start," swingman Nick Young told reporters after the game. "From the locker room to the court, we felt good. Some guys just played free tonight and did their thing. They had no handcuffs on them."
"We learned that we've got to definitely move the ball, make it quick, snappy, and put the defense in a lot of different positions, where they have to constantly rotate and kind of guess what we're doing," point guard Jeremy Lin said.
As ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh noted, the Lakers passed the ball 313 times against the Warriors, compared to the 273 passes per game they averaged—third fewest in the NBA—before that game. L.A. has a net rating of minus-12.3 with Kobe on the court this season, which speaks to the ways he's doing harm to the team with his fire-at-will style of play.
Further complicating matters, the Lakers are at high risk of losing their 2015 first-round pick, which will go to the Phoenix Suns if it falls outside the top five. Reining in Kobe's shot-chucking could have the unintended consequence of costing L.A. a top-10 selection in June.
Miami Heat
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The Miami Heat will enter 2015 facing a difficult decision about how to approach the remainder of the season.
At 14-18, the injury-riddled Heat hold a 2.5-game lead over the Orlando Magic for the Eastern Conference's final playoff spot. However, Miami will be forced to send its 2015 first-round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers if said pick falls outside the top 10.
Thus, while the Heat should be able to coast into the playoffs this year despite their array of injuries, it might better suit the organization to sit this postseason out. Before Miami's Christmas Day victory over the hemorrhaging Cleveland Cavaliers, ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh explained that rationale (subscription required):
"Miami's 13-16 record overstates the quality of this team; by its minus-3.6-point differential, the Heat should have an 11-18 record instead. There's no reason to rush Bosh back from a muscle strain and have him limp aboard a sinking ship. Eyes should be on the 2015 draft pick which is Miami's if it falls in the top 10. Let [Josh] Smith head elsewhere, develop the youth in his place. With all the injuries piling up, the Heat should be building assets, not headaches and more hubris.
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The Heat very much have the look of a team in organizational transition, which, given LeBron James' departure this summer, shouldn't come as a surprise. Miami needs to be in asset-accumulation mode, but the dismal state of the Eastern Conference could force the squad's hand in terms of its 2015 first-rounder.
That, beyond all the other injury concerns, is what should be setting off alarm bells in Pat Riley's South Beach office.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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Once the Minnesota Timberwolves shipped out Kevin Love for Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and Thaddeus Young back in August, it was foolish to expect big things from them in 2014-15. The Western Conference simply touts too many talented teams for a rebuilding squad to remain in playoff contention for very long.
No one could blame Wolves fans for feeling a bit queasy regarding the early returns from that deal, however, especially when it comes to Wiggins. The former Kansas Jayhawk currently ranks dead last in wins produced, per BoxScoreGeeks.com, along with value over replacement player, and he's tied for fourth worst in win shares.
It's gotten to the point where FiveThirtyEight.com's Neil Paine recently ran a story with the headline "Forget the Next LeBron, Andrew Wiggins May Not Be the Next James Posey." Paine estimated Wiggins to be "on track for about [six wins above replacement] in the best season of his career," which would be "a major disappointment if the comparison point is [LeBron] James."
Wiggins, who doesn't turn 20 until February, will surely improve as his career progresses, but the idea of his being a once-in-a-generation prospect like LeBron, Kevin Durant or Anthony Davis could be quickly fading away. Meanwhile, injuries to Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin have sent the Wolves plummeting to a 5-25 record, the worst in the West.
With Mo Williams set to become an unrestricted free agent in July and Thaddeus Young likely to opt out of his contract and join him, the Wolves could soon move into fire-sale mode. The long-term future of this franchise appears bright, given the extent of young talent—see: Wiggins, Bennett, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng and Rubio—but the rest of the season could be painful for Minnesota fans.
New York Knicks
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When your best player is saying things like, "The fans are dying, we're dying," you know it's been a bad year.
Carmelo Anthony delivered that quote after the New York Knicks' 102-91 Christmas Day loss to the Washington Wizards, continuing on to say, "We didn't expect, I didn't expect to be sitting at 5-26." Swingman J.R. Smith recently described the season as "a nightmare," per ESPNNewYork.com's Ohm Youngmisuk, saying, "We just gotta wake up from it."
As ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley noted on Twitter on Christmas Day, the Knicks lost 16 of their past 17 following the loss to Washington and eight straight home games, the latter setting a new single-season franchise record. They currently own the league's third-worst record, third-worst defensive rating and third-worst net rating, speaking to the widespread issues currently facing this franchise.
On Christmas Eve, Knicks president Phil Jackson tweeted "[Santa] will bring #knicknation a better 2015 than 14. The effort and skill of our team will grow as the players learn how to play with and for each other." Frank Isola of the New York Daily News wasn't feeling nearly as jovial as Jolly Old St. Nicholas, however, eviscerating Jackson and the Knicks organization in a legendary Twitter rant two days later.
Making matters worse, Anthony has been plagued with soreness in his left knee since the second game of the season, according to Begley. He's already missed four games due to the knee ailment, and he sat out the second half of Sunday's loss to the Portland Trail Blazers after appearing to aggravate the injury, per Begley.
Perhaps the only consolation for Jackson, Carmelo and Co. is that New York still owns its 2015 first-round draft pick, which is looking like a lock to fall among the top six or seven. Landing a marquee talent like Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns or Emmanuel Mudiay is just about the only thing that will take the sting away from an otherwise already lost season.
Sacramento Kings
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The Sacramento Kings already hit the panic button when they decided to fire head coach Mike Malone just 24 games into the season.
According to USA Today's Sam Amick, "Kings officials were growing tired of what they describe as a near-constant pushback from Malone on the ideological front. … There were disagreements about personnel and style of play at every turn that brought them all to this tipping point."
Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski shed additional light on the stylistic clash between Malone and owner Vivek Ranadive:
"The owner played the part of a fantasy league owner, treating the Kings like a science experiment. He shared tactical experiences with Malone about coaching his child's youth team, and pressed him to consider playing four-on-five defense, leaking out a defender for cherry-picking baskets. Some semblance of that strategy is expected to be employed with Corbin now, a source told Yahoo Sports.
The Kings are constructed around a powerhouse post player, Cousins. They aren't built to play fast, but this is ownership's mantra. The Kings are playing a version of the fast-break game with their Reno affiliate in the D-League, and it's a window into the owner's futuristic vision for the Kings.
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Through Dec. 15, the Kings averaged 95.7 possessions per 48 minutes, which puts them right around the league average. Since Dec. 16, however, the Kings are averaging 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes, tied for the NBA's sixth-highest mark.
Ranadive clearly has his mind made up about which style of play he prefers from his squad, roster construction be damned. The Kings who began the season 9-5 feel like a distant memory at this point, as at 13-18, Ranadive's crew is rapidly plummeting out of the Western Conference playoff race.
All statistics and records via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com, unless otherwise noted, and are current through games played on Tuesday, Dec. 30.
