Don't Assume Greg Monroe Stays in Detroit Just Because Josh Smith Is Gone
Now that Josh Smith is out, might Greg Monroe be in?
Attention has shifted back to Monroe following the Detroit Pistons' decision to waive Smith and eat the $27 million he's owed over the next two seasons. The former was considered a goner after signing his qualifying offer this past summer, setting himself up to be an unrestricted free agent in 2015.
Household names coming off rookie-scale contracts seldom do this. Shoot, they never do this.
Most sign extensions with their incumbent teams, capitalizing on their first sizable payday. Eschewing the opportunity to sign a new deal, leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table, meant Monroe was leaving.
Except that was prior to Smith's departure. This is the post-Smith era, and that changes things.
Sort of.
"And now, the natural assumption is Monroe will gladly sign a contract with the Pistons this summer, with Smith out of the way—on the floor and in the locker room," writes The Detroit News' Vincent Goodwill Jr. "That assumption would be wrong, and the Pistons can't be operating under that premise."
Indeed, Monroe's future hasn't become a sure thing.
Parting ways with Smith doesn't guarantee a return if Monroe's intent has been to leave all along. And we have to assume that's been the plan—even though he's denied it—given his free-agency approach and the subsequent, ever-churning rumor mill.
Exiling Smith has merely bought the Pistons an extended tryout, one free from the space- and cap-clogging presence of a tweener forward who never fit in.
Smith led the team in plays used (minimum five appearances) this season. His exit means more shot opportunities and minutes for Monroe, who has marched in and out of the starting lineup and is averaging the fewest number of shots per game (11.5) since his rookie season.
It's not just the volume in which Monroe will be used either—it's the circumstances.
The Pistons have been markedly better without Smith this season. They were being outscored by 11.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and their effective field-goal percentage—which takes into account the value differential between two- and three-pointers—plummeted.
When he was on the bench, their spacing improved, their offensive production skyrocketed by nine points per 100 possessions and they were only a minus-1.3 overall. That's good enough for playoff contention in the Eastern Conference—see: Miami Heat (minus-2.9), Brooklyn Nets (minus-2.5), Milwaukee (minus-1.1).
Monroe himself struggled mightily while trying to play beside Smith. Both prefer to operate within the same distance of the basket, creating spacing issues that quintupled in complexity when Andre Drummond joined the party.
Everything about Monroe's performance improves away from Smith. From his field-goal percentage to his scoring totals to his rebounding rate, he's just better:
| With Smith | 46.6 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 95.7 | 104.6 | -9.0 |
| Without Smith | 50.0 | 22.0 | 18.4 | 104.4 | 103.1 | 1.3 |
| Difference | 3.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 10.3 |
Playing exclusively without Smith ensures the two won't be constantly battling for, or playing out of, position. More importantly, in addition to padding Monroe's stat lines, it allows the Pistons to see how well a Monroe-Drummond pairing actually works.
Most of their time together comes with caveats. Then-head coach Lawrence Frank decided to bring Drummond along slowly as a rookie in 2012-13. He averaged just 20.7 minutes per game, only 9.2 of which came alongside Monroe.
Signing Smith that summer ruined the Pistons' ability to evaluate the dyad free and clear. To wit: Monroe and Drummond have spent 297 minutes on the court together this season. More than 58 percent of those minutes (174), though, also came with Smith.
Never before, then, have the Pistons had a chance like this, one in which they can understand the potential of their frontcourt tandem.
And, naturally, they're excited.
"I'm kind of the brute force on this team," a smiling Drummond said, per the Detroit Free Press' Vince Ellis. "And Greg, he finesses his way to the rim. I'm trying to do the dirty work to get our team going, blocking shots, grabbing rebounds, dunking."
Not that this extended look at Monroe and Drummond will mean anything. Many of the same positional problems will still plague the Pistons.
Center has always been Monroe's best position. He's remained productive as a 4, but his numbers have entered a steady decline since making the shift. His player efficiency rating at power forward (14.8) also falls well short of that at center (21.1), per 82games.com.
Both Monroe and Drummond occupy the same space themselves. The former can step out and bury the occasional jumper, but each has attempted at least 90 percent of his shots inside eight feet. Monroe is also shooting 41.8 percent with Drummond on the floor, compared to 52.5 percent without him, according to NBA.com (subscription required).
Recognizing that he'll still be forced to play out of position, Monroe could bolt. Head coach Stan Van Gundy has always favored one-in, four-out lineups, and Monroe doesn't fit the bill of a stretch 4.
Besides, other teams will inevitably come calling over the summer, many of them positioned to play Monroe at the 5.
Bigger markets like New York and Los Angeles have already been named as potential destinations, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt and the Sporting News' Sean Deveney, and the allure of playing for more esteemed franchises might be too good—or too lucrative—to pass up.
Let's not forget this is just as much about the Pistons feeling out Monroe, too. As Detroit Bad Boys' Jason Brunskowski writes:
"Van Gundy now has 54 games to determine which type of player plays best with Drummond. The NBA does not play the same style that it did when Van Gundy last coached. What used to be successful for him may not be anymore. Jerebko and Monroe provide a look at both options. ...
Not only will it be important for Van Gundy to determine which player is offensively better with Drummond and allows Drummond's offense to flourish, but it'll also be on him to determine which player plays defense best with Drummond. Monroe and Jerebko are not above average defenders. They are not horrible defenders, but they have areas that could use work. Jerebko is only an inch shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Monroe, but he has some athleticism on Monroe. Until those areas have been worked on though, it is best to pair Drummond with whichever player covers up his defensive lapses and he can cover theirs.
"
The fit between the Pistons and Monroe was foredoomed before. So long as Smith was in the picture, investing in Monroe didn't make sense.
Thing is, it may still not make sense.
Neither party has undergone transformative change. Smith is gone, but the Pistons and Monroe are still operating within an imperfect model that has yet to yield progress, let alone thrive.
If free agency began right now, Monroe's decision would likely reflect the Pistons' state. They've yet to win more than 30 games since he was drafted, are unlikely to crack 20 victories this season and haven't shown the ability to reel in top-flight free agents.
For the Pistons' part, do they really want to pay a center to play power forward? When he won't help stretch defenses the way Van Gundy's teams are known to do?
When his per-game numbers have thus far peaked five years into his career?
That's what the rest of this season will be about: seeking out answers, experimenting and trying to figure out if Smith was the source behind the future that didn't—and, as of now, still shouldn't—exist between the Pistons and Monroe.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played Thursday.
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