Why the Packers Must Treat Week 17 as a Must-Win vs. Lions
A fourth straight division title isn't the only thing on the line for the Green Bay Packers when the Detroit Lions visit Lambeau Field for a season finale showdown Sunday.
The outcome of Week 17 will have the slightly more relevant purpose of determining the difficulty of any Super Bowl run the Packers plan to embark on in January. The difference in stress of the two paths—with one forcing Green Bay on the road throughout the NFC playoffs and the other giving the Packers a week off and at least one home game—might make Sunday's NFC North title game with Detroit a must-win for Green Bay.
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By beating the Lions Sunday, the Packers would finish a perfect 8-0 at home and secure a first-round bye—likely as the NFC's No. 2 seed. If the St. Louis Rams somehow manage to go to Seattle and beat the Seahawks, Green Bay would then become the conference's top seed—ensuring the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau Field.
| GB Win + SEA Win | GB No. 2 seed |
| GB Win + SEA Loss | GB No. 1 seed |
| GB Loss | GB No. 6 seed |
Receiving the top seed remains an unlikely finish. But another division title and the No. 2 seed is still a hefty reward, especially given the alternate scenario.
A loss to the Lions would drop the Packers to 11-5 overall and down to the No. 6 seed in the NFC, as the second-place finisher in the NFC West—regardless of whether it is the Seahawks or Arizona Cardinals—holds the wild-card tiebreaker.
In that scenario, Green Bay would likely go to Dallas to play the Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card Round. A win over the Cowboys would then likely send the Packers on another trip to Seattle to play the top-seeded Seahawks. And if Green Bay somehow snuck out of Seattle with a win, another road trip—most likely to Detroit or Arizona—would await in the NFC Championship Game.
The Packers are no strangers to going on the road and winning three straight games to make a Super Bowl (see: 2010-11). But there's no question that the path listed above gives Green Bay the least probable chance of playing in the sport's final game.
There's also a scenario in which a loss to the Lions could send the Packers to Seattle in the Wild Card Round. If the Cowboys win and the Seahawks and Cardinals both lose in Week 17, Dallas and Detroit would be the top two seeds, while Seattle would still win the NFC West but drop to the No. 3 slot. There would be no harder test in the first round than going back to Seattle.
The Packers have already clinched a sixth straight trip to the postseason, where records rarely matter and any team can win anywhere. But playing at home looks especially important to the NFC field in 2014.
| 1. Seahawks | 6-1 |
| 2. Lions | 7-1 |
| 3. Cowboys | 4-4 |
| 4. Panthers | 4-4 |
| 5. Cardinals | 7-1 |
| 6. Packers | 7-0 |
| *Falcons | 3-4 |
The Seahawks have played 25 games at home over the last three seasons, including the playoffs. Only twice have they been beaten over that span: by Arizona in 2013 and by Dallas this season. Seattle won both home postseason games last January—over New Orleans and San Francisco—and has wins against the Packers and Denver Broncos in the Pacific Northwest in 2014.
Meanwhile, the Lions are quietly 7-1 at home this season. Detroit's lone loss came against Buffalo, when since-released kicker Alex Henery missed what should have been a game-winning field goal in an eventual 17-14 loss. Overall, Detroit allowed just 15.6 points per game at Ford Field—including the seven allowed to the Packers back in Week 3.
The Cowboys have been far less consistently dominant at home, winning just four of their eight games at AT&T Stadium. But Sunday's 42-7 shellacking of the Indianapolis Colts showed just how good the Cowboys can be at home, especially with Tony Romo (10 touchdowns, 0 interceptions in December) playing as efficiently as he is right now.
Even the Cardinals are 7-1 in Arizona, with the club's only loss coming this past Sunday to Seattle.
The Packers have been the very definition of one team at home and another on the road.
| Record | 7-0 | 4-4 |
| Points per Game | 41.4 | 21.0 |
| Points Allowed per Game | 20.4 | 23.1 |
| Differential | +147 | -17 |
| Aaron Rodgers' Passer Rating | 132.6 | 94.2 |
| Giveaways | 3 | 8 |
Green Bay enters Week 17 with a perfect 7-0 record at Lambeau Field and just a 4-4 mark away from home. The Packers are scoring 41.1 points per game and averaging a 20.7-point winning margin in Green Bay. But those dominant numbers drop sharply on the road, to 21 points per game and a negative-17 overall point differential (185-168).
The four teams the Packers beat on the road—Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami and Chicago—have a combined record of 21-39. The four losses have come against teams with a total record of 36-26.
And given how poorly the Packers have played on the road against top defenses, it's difficult to envision Green Bay winning in Seattle and in Detroit over the same postseason run.
Of course, beating the Lions at home Sunday will only guarantee the Packers as much as the No. 2 seed, which would still mean a potential trip to Seattle for the NFC title game. But that's a significantly more attractive scenario, and for a number of reasons.
For starters, the Packers would take a week off and then welcome the highest remaining seed to Lambeau Field in the divisional round. No road games would be required until the conference title game, while a trip back to Seattle would be pushed to the final necessary stage.
And just as importantly, quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be allowed time to rest his injured calf.
Rodgers suffered the injury early on during Green Bay's 20-3 win over the Buccaneers Sunday. He stayed in the game and completed 31 of 40 passes for 318 yards. But he was clearly favoring the uninjured leg, didn't attempt a scramble and was far less accurate than usual on the run. The injury may also play a factor Sunday. Certainly, the Packers would take the week off in the postseason to get their most important player as close to 100 percent as possible.
Rocket science obviously isn't required here. The Packers want the best seed possible. A division title would position Green Bay on the best track possible for a Super Bowl run.
It's the accompanying benefits—including a welcomed week off, at least one playoff game at Lambeau Field and the likelihood of pushing a rematch in Seattle to the conference title game—that add impossible-to-ignore incentives for winning a vastly important showdown with the Lions in the season finale.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
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