Chiefs' Faint Playoff Hopes Highlight Need for More Offensive Firepower

The Kansas City Chiefs no longer control their playoff destiny after scoring 12 points on Sunday in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In today’s NFL, 12 points doesn’t win many football games against playoff-caliber competition.

Only with a win next week and a gaggle of help will the Chiefs get another chance to end their playoff win draught that dates back to 1993. The Chiefs need teams like the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars to win in Week 17 against superior opponents.

The theme of the season for the Chiefs has been a lack of offensive firepower. Without it, the Chiefs can’t compete consistently and won’t be able to make the playoffs with any regularity the way the game is now officiated.

Over the last two years, the Chiefs have survived with smoke, mirrors, running back Jamaal Charles and a great defense. If they are without a key piece on offense, the Chiefs struggle to stay competitive against even the worst teams in the league.

Despite his best efforts, head coach Andy Reid can only scheme around the talent he has to an extent. Fans and fantasy players alike wish he would just give the ball to Charles or throw every pass to tight end Travis Kelce, but that’s not a realistic game plan.

While it’s true that Reid forgets about his best players too often, he’s merely trying to execute plays that give his team the best chance to win. He’s looking at how opposing defenses are playing his offense and working from there.

Defenses scheme heavily to stop Charles and Kelce, and even though they are still capable of making plays in less-than-ideal scenarios, other offensive players have to garner at least a little attention to get them open on a consistent basis. Reid’s schemes have been successful over the years, and at times, they really help the Chiefs, but he just doesn’t have all the pieces to make the offense take off.

The Chiefs’ so-called No. 1 wide receiver Dwayne Bowe has 57 receptions for 724 yards and no touchdowns in 2014. Since general manager John Dorsey rewarded Bowe with a lucrative contract extension, Bowe has been a No. 2 receiver at best.

After finishing second on the team Sunday with 57 receiving yards on six catches and dropping a would-be touchdown, Bowe will need a monster game next week to avoid his third consecutive season under 1,000 receiving yards and first without a touchdown catch. It’s probably not going to happen for Bowe, and he’s likely to finish second on the team in receiving yards for the second year in a row.

Charles incredibly led the team with 693 receiving yards in 2013, but injuries have slowed him down and Kelce has siphoned off a lot of the production he had previously in the passing game. Charles is down from 46.2 receiving yards per game to 18.1 per game.

Kelce has 778 receiving yards, which is 476 yards more than tight end Sean McGrath had for the Chiefs last year. Charles had 458 fewer receiving yards in 2014 compared to 2013. The net result of the equation is about the same.

The Chiefs also haven’t replaced Dexter McCluster’s 511 receiving yards from last year. De’Anthony Thomas was supposed to be the new hybrid offensive player for the Chiefs, but the rookie has been inconsistently used until recently. Thomas has a career-high six receptions for 47 yards against the Steelers, but the Chiefs got production in the passing game only at the expense of the running game and productivity in the red zone.

The lack of firepower hurts a team like the Chiefs more than some because of their quarterback. Alex Smith is simply not a player who is going to make many plays on his own. Outside of the occasional scramble, Smith’s best asset is distributing the ball to his offensive weapons.

Smith’s reluctance to throw the ball deep is well established by now, and he came into Sunday with the fewest deep completions of any qualified quarterback, per the CBS broadcast. That limits the type of weapons that can be successful with him under center, but especially when Smith isn’t getting protection.

“They really thrive on the quick passing and we took away the early looks a couple of times,” Steelers defensive end Cameron Heyward said via Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star.“I thought our defensive backs really stepped up in the red zone.”

Compared to last year, Smith’s completion percentage is up and he’s getting more yards per reception. Both his touchdown and interception percentages are down slightly, but his sack percentage is up significantly. Overall, Smith’s numbers are nearly the same as last season.

Year	Offense PPG	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	TD%	INT%	Sack%
2013	26.9	220.9	6.5	4.5%	1.4%	7.1%
2014	22.3	217.7	7.0	3.9%	1.3%	9.7%
Difference	-4.6	-3.2	+.5	-0.6%	+.1%	-2.6%

After scoring just 12 points against the Steelers, the Chiefs are averaging 22.3 points per game, down from 26.9 points per game last year. The difference is more Smith’s supporting cast than Smith himself.

For better or worse, Smith is consistent. Even with a leaky offensive line, Smith has put up similar numbers as last season. Smith may not be the solution, but he’s also not the problem with the offense.

Up until Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh, the Chiefs were second in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage, according to teamrankings.com. The problem in general hasn’t been that the Chiefs can’t get the ball in the end zone; it’s that they don’t have players making big plays to put themselves consistently in that position.

The offense actually got into the red zone four times Sunday but failed to convert any of those opportunities into touchdowns, and in one case didn’t even get a field goal. The Chiefs don’t yet have the talent on offense to overcome poor red-zone efficiency or mistakes like going for it on fourth down and failing to convert in the red zone with 27 seconds left in the first half.

As Smith and the Chiefs proved last year, the offense could improve simply by turning it over a lot less often than they did in 2012. Charles is among the most gifted running backs in the league, so giving him opportunities when the Chiefs aren’t playing behind proved to be one of the keys for them in 2013.

Now, the Chiefs need more talent on offense because defenses have caught up. They need players not named Charles or Kelce who can take a short Smith pass and do something with it. They need an offensive line that can at least give Smith the time to throw the occasional deep pass to keep defenses honest.

They also need an offensive line that isn’t allowing six sacks in a key game against a team that isn’t very good at rushing the quarterback. While there have been examples of Reid wasting talent, he’s taken this group of offensive players about as far as he can and it’s still not good enough.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com or NFL.com.