What Can Golden State Warriors Do to Fill Their Giant Andrew Bogut Void?
The Golden State Warriors have a 7'0", 260-pound vacuity on their interior, and they have no idea how long this hole will go unfilled.
Center Andrew Bogut's absence has stripped the team of a unique skill set that won't be easily replaced in-house or outside the organization. While the Warriors have several options worth exploring to compensate for their missing mountain in the middle, there is no simple solution for a problem that seems to keep worsening.
Given the 7-footer's lengthy injury history, his health problems are never easy to stomach. Still, the early reports on his most recent ailment allowed Warriors faithful to be as optimistic as possible under the circumstances.
The initial diagnosis said Bogut had tendinitis in his right knee, which was supposed to result in—at worst—a brief stint on the sideline. But the Warriors now list him as suffering from "knee chondromalacia/bone edema," per Diamond Leung of Bay Area News Group, and they don't know how long they will be without their two-way big man.
"Warriors center Andrew Bogut underwent platelet-rich plasma therapy on his ailing right knee, and according to the team Thursday, there is no timetable set for his return," wrote Leung.
Bleacher Report's Will Carroll provided some context on the change in diagnosis:
Bogut himself admitted he's been concerned about the lack of progression in his knee.
"I tried to play Sunday in New Orleans and when I warmed up everything was fine. Soon as I went to load my knee, and push off, it was exactly the same as it was in Minnesota," he told reporters recently. "I took four days off and nothing got better. That kind of worried me a little bit."
For what it's worth, Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard recently underwent platelet-rich plasma therapy, and he wound up missing 11 games (nearly four weeks).
But it's tough comparing the two given their respective track records. Entering this season, Howard had missed a total of 36 games over his first 10 years in the NBA. Bogut has missed an average of 32.5 games the past six seasons.
That's why red flags were raised even before the basketball world knew—or had a better idea of, really—the extent of Bogut's latest injury.
"Because of his immense value and that hellish health history of his that goes back to those painful Milwaukee years, it's serious cause for concern any time he steps foot off the floor," USA Today's Sam Amick wrote earlier this month.
There are concerns not only due to Bogut's past, but also due to the massive impact he's had on this team.
Always a defensive rock and now a primary offensive catalyst under head coach Steve Kerr, Bogut's presence has been the difference between the Warriors (21-3) being merely good and unbelievably great.
With him on the floor, Golden State has enjoyed an incredible plus-19.7 net efficiency rating. Without him, that figure falls to plus-5.6.
To contextualize those numbers, the Warriors lead the league with a plus-11.6 mark. Eight teams have a net rating above plus-5.6.
"Bogut's health is the chief worry of the Warriors, the difference between them being in the championship hunt and being a second- or third-tier contender hoping to get hot at the right time," wrote Marcus Thompson II of Bay Area News Group. "This latest injury is a sobering reminder of the fragility of the Warriors' current pedestal."
Golden State has no comfortable option behind Bogut.
Festus Ezeli has been starting in Bogut's place, as the third-year center can replicate some of the rim protection lost without Bogut.
But Ezeli is incredibly limited at the offensive end. He is a 60 percent career shooter at the rim and only a 31.5 percent shooter outside of three feet. He has tossed out 25 assists over his 96 games, so it's not as if he can fill Bogut's shoes as a passer.
Defensively, Ezeli is a good shot-blocker, but not the same type of interior presence as Bogut. Ezeli has had problems defending without fouling, and he's not nearly as effective on the glass. Even when putting his production next to Bogut's on the same per-36-minute scale, there is still a dramatic decline.
| Andrew Bogut | 10.1 | 13.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Festus Ezeli | 10.9 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 7.2 |
Marreese Speights has put up good numbers off the Golden State bench (12.2 points on 53 percent shooting, 5.3 rebounds in 17.1 minutes), but he'd be an awkward fit as a starter for a couple reasons.
For one, Speights is decidedly more effective on the offensive end. The Warriors have held teams to a league-best 95.5 points per 100 possessions on the season, but that number climbs to 100.9 when Speights sees the floor.
Kerr might also need to keep Speights as one of the second team's primary scorers. With the struggles of Andre Iguodala (seven points on 42.8 percent shooting) and the inconsistency from Shaun Livingston, Speights has emerged as arguably the most steady offensive source among the reserves.
David Lee could be an option at center if his hamstring would ever allow him to see some action. The former All-Star has been limited to only seven minutes on the season and has already been ruled out of Thursday's meeting with the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder, per Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle.
If Lee can get healthy, he could provide the same passing touch as Bogut, similar activity on the glass and more scoring from the post.
But the Dubs would take a massive hit on the defensive end. Bogut has held shooters to a 38.6 field-goal percentage at the rim, per NBA.com, which ranks second among all defenders facing at least six such shots per game. Last season, Lee allowed opponents to convert 48.9 percent of those looks—and he had Bogut's help defending the basket.
Sophomore Ognjen Kuzmic boasts a 7'0", 260-pound frame, but he has logged just 126 minutes in his career. Kerr might be forced to give him a look at some point, but don't expect it to be a very long one if the 24-year-old is overwhelmed.
Looking outside the organization, which won't be easy to do with the lack of a timetable for Bogut's return, does little more than add to Golden State's pile of question marks.
The Warriors could join the line of contenders waiting for the green light from Emeka Okafor. The 32-year-old missed the entire 2013-14 campaign with a serious neck injury, but ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported in August that "roughly half of the league, I'm told, has registered interest this summer in Okafor."
When healthy, the former No. 2 pick offers rim protection, rebounding and complementary scoring. The problem is Stein heard Okafor "is unlikely to sign anywhere until midseason," and Golden State might need more immediate help.
The Warriors could also consider Jermaine O'Neal, who expertly backed up Bogut last season. O'Neal told Stein recently he hasn't decided whether he'll come back for what would be his 19th season, but he plans to have his mind made up "after the holidays."
Warriors general manager Bob Myers said recently that a reunion with O'Neal could be a possibility, per Leung:
Golden State could examine the trade market, but it doesn't have much to offer potential partners. The Warriors have already shipped out their next four second-round picks and their 2017 first-round selection. And the only real prospects they have are already playing significant roles for them: Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson.
The Warriors might add a free agent at some point, but their best bet is finding a way to solve this internally. As Stephen Curry told reporters, this is a chance for multiple players to shine in expanded roles:
More than likely, this isn't a question that has only one answer. The Warriors will need to experiment, as matchups could dictate the direction this team goes.
Fortunately, Kerr's coaching staff is loaded with sharp, experienced minds like Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams. There is enough basketball brain power to help this team survive, provided Bogut can eventually put this behind him.
Ezeli should get the call against bigger, more offensively gifted frontcourts. For teams that don't pack a real scoring punch at center, Lee (when healthy) and Speights might grab a lion's share of the minutes.
Also, look for the Warriors to deploy their athletic, undersized 4-5 pairing of Barnes and Green as much as possible. With that look, Golden State has to stop attacks on the perimeter and gang rebound, but the talent is in place to do just that. As long as the Warriors can keep things close on the glass, they can unleash a fury of opportunistic defense and fast-paced, spread-out offense.
The Warriors are too good to completely collapse without Bogut. The challenge will be keeping damage to a minimum in the crowded Western Conference, where one losing streak can send a team plummeting down the standings.
Getting Bogut healthy is the primary concern. There are no championship dreams without him. The Warriors just have to find ways to leave that window open as long as he's out.
Surviving isn't nearly as fun as streaking into the franchise record books. But both experiences could help prepare this club for a lengthy playoff run—so long as that void is occupied at some point.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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