With Little Separation Atop the East, One Move Could Make All the Difference
It was a romp of ridiculous proportions, the Cavaliers sinking all nine of their three-point attempts in the first quarter, and 19 in all, on their way to a 33-point victory against the Atlanta Hawks. While it was unreasonable to expect the shots to fall at that rate every night, the performance was still seen by some—including this writer—as an indicator of Cleveland's upside, when the Cavaliers guarded with gusto and passed with purpose.
But we know now that it wasn't a reliable sign of their superiority, since Atlanta just reversed the rout 34 days later, making 16 three-pointers, shooting 64.5 percent from the field overall, outscoring Cleveland by 37 in the final three quarters and winning by 29.
"That was embarrassing how we played," Cavaliers coach David Blatt told reporters after Wednesday's loss. "I apologize to all the good fans that came out here. Just a poor, poor performance."
And yet, it should have been expected, and not just because the Cavaliers' defensive intensity has come and gone over the course of the season. This is what the East is. It's relatively even, at least in the top third.
This is why one personnel move could prove pivotal—especially if the Cavaliers come up with a wing defender (Minnesota's Corey Brewer is back on the radar, according to an ESPN.com report) or rim protector, or the Chicago Bulls or the Washington Wizards secure another shooter (Ray Allen, if he doesn't choose Cleveland or one of the other four or five teams interested), or the Toronto Raptors find an upgrade to Tyler Hansbrough as a backup big, or the Atlanta Hawks add some athleticism to accompany their unselfishness, versatility and shooting ability.
Considering the injuries to the Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers, and the rebuilding postures of most of the rest, only five teams are truly in contention, all just about equally skilled and flawed, with their advantages and deficiencies in different areas. And so, every conclusion is forced. Just when you think one of the five—Cavaliers, Hawks, Bulls, Raptors, Wizards—is significantly ahead of another, it's proven premature.
And it's not only shown by the small number (five) of games that separates the first through fifth seeds; it's shown in the head-to-head matchups so far.
One night, one team gets to its game.
The next time, the other does.
The Wizards dominated the Cavaliers on Nov. 21, with the 13-point margin hardly representative of the way John Wall whipped them.
Five nights later, Cleveland beat Washington by 26, with LeBron James recording 29 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists.
The Raptors, behind Lou Williams' explosion, won by 17 in Cleveland on Nov. 22.
The Cavaliers, benefiting from DeMar DeRozan's absence, then topped Toronto twice in five days in early December, once in each team's arena.
The Bulls lost at home against Cleveland in overtime but won in Toronto by seven. The Wizards lost in Toronto by 19—but it would hardly be surprising to see Washington prevail the next time, on Jan. 31.
The contrasts are everywhere.
The Wizards (fifth in defensive rating) have been the best of the five defensively, followed by the Bulls (eighth), Hawks (ninth), Raptors (12th) and Cavaliers (23rd). But the Raptors (second) have been the best of the five offensively, followed by the Cavaliers (fourth), Hawks (seventh), Bulls (12th) and Wizards (13th).
The Hawks and Wizards are the top two NBA teams in assist percentage. The Bulls are the best of these five teams in rebounding percentage, ranking fifth overall. Of the five East contenders, the Wizards are the most accurate from the three-point arc but the least prolific since they have the fewest attempts; the Hawks have the most attempts of the five teams and the most conversions. The Raptors, Bulls and Cavaliers live at the line, all in the top seven in the NBA in free throws attempted and made.
The Cavaliers are the only one of the five teams with a new coach, so they can be cut a little slack. Still, they've also been the healthiest, with James and Anderson Varejao missing one game apiece. The only other absence of significance was backup point guard Matthew Dellavedova for nearly five weeks.
Four of the Hawks' five regular starters had played every game until Jeff Teague sat with a strained hamstring Wednesday, but DeMarre Carroll missed four earlier in the season. Chicago has been without Derrick Rose for eight games, Joakim Noah for seven, Pau Gasol for three and Jimmy Butler for two. DeRozan has missed 10 with a groin injury and will miss at least a few more. The Wizards have played nine games without Bradley Beal and seven without Nene.
Yet all have stayed afloat, in part because the conference has so much dead weight. But they've all actually been about even against the East, with records of 15-5 (Atlanta), 13-4 (Toronto) 12-4 (Cleveland), 11-4 (Chicago) and 12-5 (Washington). The Wizards (6-1) and Raptors (7-2) have been best against the West, while the Cavaliers have dropped six of eight.
None of these teams figure to drop out of the top five, not unless Dwyane Wade has a few more 42-point performances in him—his highest total since December 2010—and maybe even if he does, considering the Heat still lost to Utah at home, their seventh home loss in eight games.
Other than that, it's hard to see any team cracking what is emerging as the East's elite, albeit still a step down from the West's best.
The Pacers getting Paul George back prematurely? The Bucks defense compensating for the loss of Jabari Parker? The Magic growing up earlier than expected? The Celtics keeping Rajon Rondo? The Nets keeping, well, someone?
Even if all that occurs, the Wizards, Raptors, Hawks, Bulls and Cavaliers have enough to keep them at bay.
Even as they keep trading routs with each other.
NBA.com stats up to date through games on Tuesday, Dec. 16.
Ethan Skolnick covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @EthanJSkolnick.
