Patriots vs. Jets: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan

Rex Ryan may be out of time as head coach of the New York Jets, but you can bet he would love nothing more than to knock off Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots one more time as a final parting gift. 

With mirroring records, the Patriots are in a different class than the Jets in terms of caliber of team. While Ryan's squad has struggled to scrap and claw for their three victories, the Patriots have cruised to 11 wins and sit among the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. 

This game, however, sets up nicely for the underdog Jets, who have been hearing nothing but noise about "tanking" for certain quarterback prospects in recent weeks, to take out their frustrations on a Patriots team that is already looking forward to the playoffs. 

Adding to the storyline is the realization of a Jets fans' worst nightmare: Darrelle Revis back at MetLife stadium donned in Patriots red, white and blue. 

Here is how Ryan can get one lasting victory over the Patriots as his Jets career comes to a close. 

Pound the Rock

The Jets may be coming off their most pedestrian outing on the ground last week against the Tennessee Titans (just 80 yards between Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory), but the ground game is still the area where the Jets have the biggest matchup advantage on both sides of the ball. 

Credit: StatMilk.com

As the data shows, the Jets will be running against an average run defense, while their inept passing game will undoubtedly struggle against one of the most talented secondaries in the game, featuring a highly motivated Revis. 

One of the reasons why the Jets only had marginal success on the ground last week was because they cut down on Ivory's workload with Johnson playing against his former team last week. Johnson was able to rip off a 37-yard run, but it came at the cost of Ivory's production: He posted just 25 yards on 12 carries. 

Ivory's value cannot be completely measure in yards. His physicality wears down a defense, making them a much more tired and timid unit by the fourth quarter. Johnson, although blessed with more speed, cannot come close to replicating this caliber of physicality. 

The Patriots' pass rush has also been given an injection of energy with Chandler Jones returning to the lineup after missing six games with a hip injury. Jones had 1.5 sacks in his first game back last week and will continue to be a menace if the Jets do not slow him down with a strong ground attack. 

Plan to be Without Percy Harvin

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Statistically, receiver Eric Decker enjoyed his best game as a Jet last week, compiling his first 100-yard game in green and white. The Jets will need a repeat performance out of their $35 million man if they are going to keep pace with the Patriots on the scoreboard. 

Having squared off against him in their first meeting in Week 7, it would be assumed that Revis would get another shot at the Jets' leading receiver, especially after allowing just two catches in his direction:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The mid-December Jets, however, have a new twist compared to the mid-October version: Percy Harvin. On the other hand, the Patriots secondary has received a boost of its own by adding Brandon Browner off suspension.

The longer, lankier Browner would be set up for failure against a quick-twitch player of Harvin's caliber, making the smaller and more versatile Revis a much better matchup. Meanwhile, Browner's size and physicality makes him a perfect fit to limit the effectiveness of Decker on the perimeter. 

The Jets will not be able to generate many plays from their receivers in general, but they can all but count on Revis taking Harvin out of the game. Another year removed from ACL surgery and "Revis Island" appears to be back in operation, per Pro Football Focus:

Decker is a good enough receiver to get at least a few opportunities to make plays against Browner, but quarterback Geno Smith will find much more success getting the interior receivers involved in the game. Expect a heavy dose of slot receiver Jeremy Kerley and tight ends Jace Amaro and Jeff Cumberland to get involved early and often. 

Invite the Run Game

Scoring on the new-look Patriots defense is one thing; slowing down their annually prolific offense is a completely different monster. After a slow start, Tom Brady and the Patriots offense have been back on schedule since Rob Gronkowski's return to the lineup. 

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Across the board, the Jets are heavily outmatched in their receiver vs. defensive back (or linebacker) matchups. Brady and Co. are going to have their chances to make plays against a secondary whose top cornerback is undrafted free agent Marcus Williams. 

Ryan is going to have to lean on the strength of his defense by an abnormal amount to get the best of Brady—his defensive line. The Patriots' 18th-ranked rushing attack must be handled by the defensive front with little assistance from the secondary, which will need to be exclusively focused on limiting the passing game.

When trying to defend such overmatched offenses in the past, Ryan has used a plan in which he plays with an abnormally light box, generally no more than six defenders (sometimes seven). This almost forces an offense to check into a run. Usually, running the ball against a six-man front is an easy five or so yards, but the Jets have enough talent on their defensive line to limit the damage. 

In other words, whenever the Patriots run the ball, they are taking it out of Brady's hands—which counts as a "win" for them. 

The Jets used this concept earlier in the season against the Denver Broncos, which turned out to be a successful plan overall (24 offensive points allowed). Here, even against a heavy, two-tight end personnel set, the Jets use just seven defenders in the box.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

If the Jets were lined up with the same personnel, you can bet the Broncos would have eight to 10 players in the box to stop the obvious run.

Beating the Patriots won't help save Ryan's job at this point, but doing so could help sweeten the rotten season the Jets have been trying to swallow all season long. While it would take a massive effort and few bounces to go their way, Ryan's teams have battled the Patriots close in plenty of recent matchups. 

If the Jets can follow a sound plan that minimizes their weaknesses, they have a chance to give the Patriots one more defeat before the 2014 season ends. 

Advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).