Chargers vs. 49ers: Breaking Down San Francisco's Game Plan
The San Francisco 49ers' 2014 playoff hopes came crashing to an end after their Week 15 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday.
At 7-7, the 49ers have been relegated to a spoiler role with two games remaining on their schedule.
While a flurry of discussion has surrounded the future of this franchise—head coach Jim Harbaugh's future, pending free agents and more—San Francisco will look to finish off its season on a positive note. Its next challenge will be a home contest against the 8-6 San Diego Chargers.
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San Diego is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Chargers hold the No. 8 seed in the AFC, so Saturday's matchup has major implications for their postseason prospects.
The 49ers hold a 2.5-point advantage over their Southern California counterparts, according to Odds Shark. But Levi's Stadium has not exactly given San Francisco much of a home-field advantage this season. The 49ers can only boast a 3-3 record in Santa Clara.
With their own postseason hopes no longer a question, the 49ers can shift their entire focus on making a statement over their remaining contests.
It's something that offensive guard Alex Boone commented on following the team's Week 14 loss, via 49ers.com (h/t David Fucillo of Niners Nation):
"Make a statement. Come out and just forget everything, just play football. You're playing with some of the greatest guys ever. Frank Gore, Justin Smith. These are guys that probably aren't gonna be here next year. You fight for them. You're proud to go out there with them, and fight as hard as they do, and really you're playing for pride now. It's a tough situation. I've been in this situation before, but this team hasn't seen it in a while. It's one of those things where you just have to be a man about it. Go out and do your job, be a professional.
"
San Diego figures to be a desperate team vying for a playoff berth. San Francisco no longer has anything to lose but pride.
So how will the 49ers go about upsetting the Chargers' postseason hopes in Week 15?
The Opponent
A middle-of-the-pack Chargers defense is what the lackluster 49ers offense will have to face on Saturday.
San Diego ranks No. 9 in the NFL with 4,715 all-purpose yards allowed. Its defense has given up the ninth-fewest points in the league (294) and is averaging 21.0 points against per game.
If there is a weakness within the Chargers defense, it lies with its ability to stop the run. While better than average, San Diego has given up 1,520 rushing yards on the season—13th-best in the NFL. The run-heavy Kansas City Chiefs were able to put up 154 ground yards against the Chargers in Week 7.
Can the 49ers replicate this type of success with a banged-up ground game?
While their defense has been relatively consistent, the Chargers offense has experienced an up-and-down season at best.
In five of their 14 contests, the Chargers have failed to crest the 300 all-purpose-yard plateau. San Diego's ground game—led by running backs Branden Oliver and Ryan Mathews—has combined for a mere 788 yards.
As a result, San Diego's rushing attack ranks No. 31 in the league with an average of just 82.6 yards per game.
But the Chargers do have potency through the air. Their aerial attack ranks No. 11 in the league with an average of 249.6 yards per game.
Premium receiving targets for quarterback Philip Rivers include wideouts Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd. There is always the prowess of veteran tight end Antonio Gates. In fact, San Diego boasts four different pass-catchers who claim at least 500 receiving yards in 2014.
Allen's recent collarbone injury is expected to keep him out of Week 15, per NFL on ESPN:
While these weapons are dangerous, Rivers has been on a cold streak of late. After a hot start to the year, San Diego's quarterback has posted back-to-back games in which he recorded quarterback ratings of 75.0 or less. Figuratively, the Chargers lost both of those contests to the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, respectively.
Both New England and Denver were prime challenges for Rivers and the Chargers. But the 49ers defense can also rely upon recent strong showings despite the team's .500 record.
Defense: Next Man Up
Injuries to the 49ers defense have been nothing new in 2014.
The secondary has been bitten by the injury bug particularly hard. San Francisco has lost defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Chris Cook to season-ending injuries. Cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Tramaine Brock have missed extended periods of time.
Yet the 49ers' passing defense has remained effective. This unit has allowed just 207.2 yards per game, which is third-best in the league.
But San Francisco is forced to face even larger obstacles within its front seven.
Outstanding rookie linebacker Chris Borland suffered an ankle injury just before halftime against Seattle. He returned for a single play in the second half but missed the remainder of the contest.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio later stated, per Eric Branch of SFGate.com, that it would be a "stretch" for the young linebacker to play again in 2014:
The potential loss significantly hurts the 49ers. Borland, who took over the full-time role from linebacker Patrick Willis (toe) in Week 6, leads the team with 84 tackles. The Seahawks were able to exploit his absence in Week 14 en route to their 17-7 victory.
Running back Marshawn Lynch gained 76 of his 91 yards after Borland came out, per Chris Biderman of Scout.com:
To help plug the gap, San Francisco signed former Arizona Cardinals linebacker Desmond Bishop.
Further complicating the story was the recent news that defensive end Ray McDonald was released by the team following his alleged involvement in a sexual assault case. McDonald had already been arrested for domestic violence prior to the season, although no charges were filed.
For those waiting for an increased role from second-year pro Tank Carradine, this might be the moment.
The phrase "next man up" has summarized what has happened to the 49ers defense in 2014. Big playmakers like Willis, linebacker NaVorro Bowman and now Borland have left substantial absences on the defensive side of the ball.
But the 49ers still boast the third-best defense in the league as far as yards allowed per contest (307.1).
Offense: Replicate First-Half Formula from Week 15
Here's a strange statement: San Francisco actually moved the ball with some efficiency in the first half of its contest versus Seattle.
While these efforts only culminated in seven points, the 49ers looked as if they had a bona fide game plan in place for thwarting a top-ranked Seahawks defense. But, as has so often been the case, things fell apart after halftime.
Injuries to running backs Frank Gore (concussion) and Carlos Hyde (ankle/back) didn't help. Both are listed as questionable on the team's injury report.
Whether or not either back will be ready for Saturday's contest will impact the 49ers' offensive output.
But a large burden will, again, fall on quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
It's no secret that the 27-year-old signal-caller is falling well short of expectations in 2014. NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell went as far to say, via Scooby Axson of Sports Illustrated, that Kaepernick “is not advanced at all the nuances of playing NFL quarterback."
On a positive note, Kaepernick didn't turn the ball over versus Seattle—something he has been accustomed to doing. But the quarterback didn't exactly impact the game in a positive way, either.
His accuracy, decision-making and pocket poise have all been under scrutiny. Will this trend replicate itself in Week 16?
Part of the blame falls upon Kaepernick's offensive line. This unit has a role in Kaepernick being the top-sacked quarterback of 2014 (49). Thankfully, San Diego's pass rush ranks toward the bottom of the NFL—No. 29 with 20 sacks.
But Seattle is in the bottom third of this same category, and its defense got to Kaepernick six times on Sunday.
Along with the O-line's struggles, the 49ers' receiving corps has not been able to generate the separation necessary to help Kaepernick out. San Francisco lacks speed. At one point, tight end Vernon Davis could be counted upon as the primary deep threat on offense.
2014 has been anything but positive in this regard, both for Davis and the potency of the offense.
Still, offensive coordinator Greg Roman will have to dial up a game plan that focuses on the primary strengths of his offense. While the playoff elimination hurts, the 49ers can go all out and not focus on doing anything conservatively.
But that is up to the OC, Harbaugh and the players themselves.
Treat Week 16 as if It's a Playoff Game
San Francisco is out of the playoff hunt. San Diego is not. Therefore, this game has substantial meaning if only to one team.
Fellow AFC teams, like the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, will be watching what happens between the 49ers and Chargers.
So why not go out there and make a statement, not only to the Chargers, but to the rest of the league?
Josh Alper of NBC Sports' Pro Football Talk summed up Harbaugh's statements about the rest of the year after San Francisco was eliminated from the postseason:
"Harbaugh said after Sunday’s 17-7 loss to the Seahawks that his team will “keep fighting” with “every ounce of energy” despite the disappearance of a chance to compete for a title because “that’s what a professional does.” The results of games that will affect only draft order wasn't really the chief thing on anyone’s mind after the game, though.
"
Alper is alluding to Harbaugh's future, of course, but putting that distraction aside will be paramount for a 49ers squad that hopes to finish with an above-.500 record in 2014.
San Francisco's playoff hopes have been defeated, but the 49ers don't have to emulate the elimination with a lackluster, uninspired effort over these last two weeks.
Instead, they need to come out and prove to the rest of the league that they truly are a better team than the one the rest of the NFL saw over the course of 14 games.
Perhaps this will be a small silver lining in what has ultimately been a disappointing year.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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