LeBron James and Kevin Durant Will Race Each Other to NBA Scoring History
As soon as Kevin Durant hits either one triple, multiple two-pointers or some combination of shots from the field and attempts at the charity stripe, he'll become the second-youngest player to 15,000 career points in NBA history. Entering Tuesday night's contest against the Sacramento Kings, he's sitting pretty at 14,997, so it's a fairly safe bet he'll gain entry to that club at 26 years, 78 days.
The quickest to the mark? LeBron James, of course.
"James reached the milestone at 25 years, 79 days, and he did it in his 540th game," the Associated Press reported, via NBA.com, back in March of 2010. "[Kobe] Bryant [the previous record holder] was 27 years, 136 days and playing his 657th game, according to STATS LLC, when he did it for the Los Angeles Lakers."
But here's the fun part.
James has an advantage in the youth department, as he entered the NBA straight out of high school, bypassing the ranks of collegiate basketball so that he could join the Cleveland Cavaliers and get his professional career off to an early start. Durant did no such thing, playing for the Texas Longhorns and declaring for the draft after his freshman season in Austin.
So while Durant comes up right in between James and Kobe Bryant, trailing the former by a full year and coming in ahead of Bryant by about the same margin, it's worth looking at how many games it took him to hit 15,000 points as well.
This contest against the Kings will be the 550th of Durant's NBA career. He's not quite on the same pace as the four-time MVP currently playing with the Cavaliers, but it's not as though he's particularly far behind.
And that gives hope that Durant might eventually finish ahead of his fellow small forward on the career scoring leaderboard.
Where Will James Finish?
At this point, James is already well beyond 15,000.
When he broke that barrier, he was finishing up his first tenure with Cleveland, playing a mid-March contest against the Chicago Bulls while gearing up for a playoff run. Since then, he's won two championships with the Miami Heat, scored plenty more points and returned to his hometown squad.
While Durant prepares to hit 15k, James is coming up on 24,000 points scored, and he's only just nearing his 30th birthday. He has plenty of years left to rack up buckets, and it won't take all that long before we're comparing his spot to the ones occupied by Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.
The competition between those two shooting guards took center stage during early December, with Bryant chasing down the Bulls legend and eventually surpassing him with a pair of free throws. It was a big enough deal that play completely stopped, and that's likely a scene we'll see when James moves past the near-consensus G.O.A.T. years down the road.
Let's start there.
Jordan and his 32,292 points now sit at No. 4 on the all-time leaderboard, trailing only Bryant (32,331 and counting), Karl Malone (36,928) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387). Is he safe from modern-day competitors? Take a look:
Dirk Nowitzki has a realistic shot at passing Jordan if he plays beyond his current contract with the Dallas Mavericks, but it would be highly, highly unlikely that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Tim Duncan or Ray Allen (assuming he should still be called a current player) moves past him. And next up is James, which is absolutely insane since the other names mentioned in this paragraph all have quite a few years on him.
It seems as though the Cavs stud is falling prey to declining athleticism this season, but that's not affecting his overall performance. His efficiency is climbing back up to normal levels, and he's still scoring 25.6 points per game, a mark that leaves him trailing only James Harden.
"The LeBron who could dunk on any player at any time is probably gone," a league advance scout recently told ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "He's probably never been a better basketball player than he is right now, though."
And that's not all.
"Now, you'll see him set the defense up and take advantage of its weaknesses," an Eastern Conference assistant coach also explained to Windhorst. "If that means fewer dunks but more efficient shots for himself or his teammates then you could say he's playing better offensively now than he was then."
That's the beauty of James. He might lose the athleticism that has made him so feared, but he's one of the most intelligent players of all time, and he'll still be programmed to make the right play for quite some time. There's no doubt he'll keep scoring at high levels throughout his career, even if his style of play has to change.
So, let's assume there's a bit of a decline throughout the rest of his career, and he averages only 22 points per game while maintaining those levels of efficiency that are so important in real action, even if they're only tangential here. That accounts for him averaging between 24 and 26 points for the next few seasons before declining to 20 or slightly below. It's also worth noting that James has been remarkably durable throughout his career, playing an average of 77 outings per season.
First, imagine he continues putting up 25.6 points per game and plays in 55 more games this season to get to that 77-contest mark. He'd finish the 2014-15 campaign with 25,141 points. Then, if he scores 22 points per contest and suits up 77 times each year, playing six more seasons and retiring at 36 years old, he'd hang up the sneakers with 35,305 points under his belt.
Feels fairly conservative, right? Nonetheless, that still puts him well clear of Jordan and within striking distance of Malone.
But what's crazy is that there's a distinct possibility James could eventually dethrone Abdul-Jabbar and become the new gold standard for longstanding scoring prowess. After all, this is a man who scored 20.9 points per game during his rookie season and has been above 25 during every other go-round throughout his illustrious career. And there's no reason to believe he can't play past 36 years old, either.
Even if he averages exactly 25 points per contest for the next six years after playing out the current season at his present rate, he'd finish with 36,691 points. Remember, Abdul-Jabbar is at 38,387. Add one more season to James' career, and he's past the sky-hook legend himself if he can play 77 times and average 22 points per game.
So, for Durant to have any shot at surpassing his inter-conference rival, he'll have to at least have a chance at doing the same—eventually surpassing Abdul-Jabbar.
Where Will Durant Finish?
What's so insane about Durant's scoring is how quickly he was able to accomplish such remarkable feats.
Already a four-time scoring champion, the Oklahoma City Thunder standout is still just 26 years old. He's getting better, not entering into any state of decline, and he has plenty of years left to produce monstrous numbers.
He's racking up points at a historic rate already, and to hammer that point home, here's a visual representation of how many Durant and James had after each year of their career, up to the point of where the former is currently:
But, somewhat surprisingly, that's not exactly an argument in favor of the younger challenger. Though he's been close on multiple occasions, he only bests James' total in two of those first seven seasons. And given the injury that knocked him out of action, it's unlikely his eighth season matches James' total in the equivalent year (2,111). To get there, Durant would need to play in every remaining game and average 33.9 points per contest.
Though that number is unrealistic, at least it doesn't seem like we have to worry about any recurring injuries to his foot, as the scoring stud himself and ESPN.com's Royce Young made clear:
"ESPN NBA Insider Dr. Mark Adickes said the recurrence rate of re-injury is extremely low for surgically repaired fifth metatarsal fractures in elite athletes -- 5 to 10 percent -- with that percentage dropping to 3 to 5 when treated with a screw, as Durant's was. But the NBA has a long history of big men dealing with foot issues, something the nearly 7-foot Durant is well aware of.
'I know I'm different. I know my injury was different. I know I'm a different build than most guys,' Durant told reporters earlier in the week. 'You can't compare me to Yao Ming. He's 300 pounds and he broke his foot. I didn't break mine.'
"
Nor should we lose sleep over him getting less aggressive.
"I'm one of those guys that's going to play how I play if I'm out on the court," Durant told Young. "If I try to hold back and worry about what may happen, that's when I don't bring the edge I usually play with. Whatever happens, happens."
We've seen him play just under 30 minutes during most of his seven outings thus far in 2014-15, and though the Thunder will presumably be careful about his workload, it's not as if he's struggling to score. Durant is already averaging 20.9 points per game, and his per-36-minute mark is right in line with where it's been for a long time now.
For the sake of having firm numbers to work with, let's assume Durant plays in 50 of the 58 remaining games and averages 25 points per contest. That gives him 1,250 more points to add to his current total and would leave him entering 2015-16 with 16,247 to his credit.
But then everything gets much trickier.
Projecting the scoring averages of one of the most talented point-producing phenoms in NBA history is not particularly easy, especially when he's still only 26 years old. It's all just guesstimating based on his track record and a jump shooting style that should help him defy Father Time.
Heading into this season, Durant—just like James—had played an average of 77 games per campaign. So that's the baseline we'll use there. But how many points is he going to score each year?
Given that he's averaged 29.3 points per game over the five seasons leading up to this one and posted a career-best 32 points per contest in 2013-14, it seems a safe assumption to give him an average of 30 points per outing throughout his prime. And we'll allow that prime to extend to 30 years old, as that's the point where we've seen James' scoring—in terms of sheer volume—begin to decline.
After that, we can have Durant average 25 points per game for four more seasons, then drop down to, say, 21 points per game for two more years before calling it quits at 36. That number is only being chosen for the sake of similarity, as that's when we had James pulling the plug as well.
With those rough estimates—and again, he could dramatically exceed or fail to meet them, as there's so much uncertainty about the future of any player—he'd retire with 36,421 points under his belt. Remember, our initial conservative estimate had James at 35,305 points, and the projection in which he averaged 25 points per game for the next six years placed him at 36,691 points.
So, which scoring stud is going to finish with more points?
It seems to be a surprisingly safe bet that each will eventually surpass Jordan and have a great shot to move past Bryant on the career leaderboard, unless the latter plays beyond his current contract. Malone will be in sight as well, though it will take some superhuman efforts and endurance to challenge Abdul-Jabbar, even if that No. 1 spot is indeed possible for each player.
But right now, it's a toss-up between the two. Durant and James, using those rough estimates, will finish quite close to one another, and it's impossible to predict who will suffer significant injuries or end up on a team with another star scorer who eats into the late-career opportunities.
And that's why James, despite Durant's penchant for putting up bigger per-game numbers, is the safer choice. He has a massive head start on the OKC forward, and that makes a big difference in this competition. Durant has more uncertainty left to navigate through, even if he seems to have more scoring upside.
In 2000, Grant Hill entered the seventh season of his career with 9,393 points scored. He was on pace to get to 15k during the beginning of his 12th season. But injuries derailed his career, and he didn't join the club until his 15th go-round in the Association. He'd retire just slightly over 17,000.
After eight seasons, Tracy McGrady had 12,423 points and seemed on pace to finish with a ridiculous total. But then that pesky injury imp did its malicious job, and despite playing another seven years, McGrady finished with "only" 18,381.
Injuries can pop up at any time, and that's why it's safer to take the player with the 8,736-point lead in a competition that's otherwise too close to call.
Is either choice objectively wrong at this stage of their respective careers? Absolutely not, but James seems to be just a bit more right. Sorry, Durant, but it's another second-place finish.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Dec. 16's games.
