7 Biggest Early-Season Question Marks of the 2014-15 NBA Season
The quarter mark of the 2014-15 NBA season hasn't supplied many conclusions, but it has dropped a number of hints about storylines worth watching going forward.
All seven of the following inquiries will eventually be answered definitively, quite possibly reshaping the championship discussion in the process.
One Western Conference contender has to figure out how to replace an invaluable piece of its rotation recently lost to injury. Another must work a recovering former All-Star back into an equation that is currently producing nothing but basketball brilliance. Still another is eager to see just how much ground it can make up now that it has its two MVP-caliber leaders back in action.
These early-season question marks are more than the source of debates or hot takes. These could be some of the biggest keys to mapping out the next six months of this marathon.
Big Test for Paper-Thin Trail Blazers
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There is no such thing as an expendable player on the Portland Trail Blazers' starting five.
Coach Terry Stotts' starters have the 10th-best net efficiency rating (plus-11.1 points per 100 possessions) of all high-volume (minimum 100 minutes) five-man lineups in the league. Conversely, Portland's reserves have the sixth-lowest scoring average of any bench at 26.0 points per game, via HoopsStats.com.
The Blazers (19-6) cannot afford to lose any of their opening five. If there was a disposable piece to this puzzle, though, one might assume that it's Robin Lopez and his per-game averages of 9.6 points and 7.2 rebounds.
Unfortunately, that could not be further from the truth. Lopez plays an invaluable role for this team.
"What RoLo provides, it's not something that you can really put into a stat sheet," said Blazers guard Wesley Matthews, per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian. "Some games he will that stat sheet up, but his talking, his activity, his unselfishness on offense and defense, his energy."
All of those intangibles could be absent for a while. Lopez suffered a fractured right hand that league sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski could keep the 7-footer out of action the next four weeks.
Assuming Stotts leaves Chris Kaman as the focal point of his second team, Lopez's absence could thrust Joel Freeland, Thomas Robinson or Meyers Leonard into a starting role. Somehow, the Blazers must make it through this transition without missing a beat.
The slightest stumble can have disastrous consequences in the West, so Portland has to hope it can hide its glaring hole in the middle.
The Mavericks' One-Sided Resume
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Build a roster around Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons, and there is a really good chance it will become a wrecking ball on the offensive end. Of course, it also projects as being problematically generous at the opposite side.
Both of those items have already come to fruition, which makes the Dallas Mavericks arguably the most confusing contender in basketball.
Dallas' offense has been every bit as good as advertised and then some. Not only do the Mavericks have the highest offensive rating in the league (113.4), they are on pace to produce an efficiency mark that is better than any kept in NBA.com's advanced statistical database, which dates back to the 1996-97 season.
That being said, this defense looks as bad in action as it does on paper. The Mavericks sit 22nd in defensive efficiency. That number helps explain why Dallas (17-8) owns an 0-5 record against the West's top six teams.
"We're right there, but we haven't beaten all the good teams," Nowitzki said recently, per Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News. "So we've got to turn it around pretty quick. 'Right there' is just not good enough."
History says Dallas' defense is bad enough to keep it out of the championship race. The 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers were the last team to win a title without a top-10 defense.
The Mavs' offense looks almost good enough to contend for a title, anyway. But there is no reward for almost fielding a championship roster. Unless this defense significantly improves, Dallas' ceiling appears to be the same as last season: a tough playoff out.
The Eastern Conference Power Structure
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The Eastern Conference Finals seemed to be set over the summer. The Cleveland Cavaliers supercharged their roster with the return of LeBron James and the arrival of Kevin Love. The Chicago Bulls witnessed the latest comeback of a healthy Derrick Rose, plus the Windy City entrances of Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott.
The East, it appeared, would be a two-team race to the top. Yet, there are three clubs holding winning percentages above .700—none of which reside in the star-studded Central Division.
The Toronto Raptors (19-6) have paced the group while the Washington Wizards (17-6) and Atlanta Hawks (17-7) have stayed close behind. The Bulls (15-9) occupy the fourth spot on the standings, while the Cavs (14-9) sit one place lower.
Advanced statistics mostly peg this race the same way. The Raptors (plus-7.8) are the East's only team with a top-five net efficiency rank, while the Wizards (plus-5.2) and Hawks (plus-5.0) are the only others inside the top 10.
There is still a chance, maybe even a good one, that the Cavs and Bulls scale these standings over the next four months. There is a reason both have been popular picks to emerge from the East. The talent level on each roster is staggering.
But these first 20-odd games have shown that there are other dangerous, hungry, skilled teams in this conference. They might not have the ceiling of Cleveland or Chicago, but they won't need it if those two bring less than their best.
"Bottom line, the Bulls and Cavs are still the favorites to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, but if either runs into injuries or an untimely stretch of poor play, there are several teams poised and ready to take their place on the big stage," wrote Comcast SportsNet's Mark Schanowski.
Golden State's David Lee Dilemma
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Remember when the Golden State Warriors had the chance to build a superteam around Stephen Curry and Kevin Love? Well, the Dubs decided to stand pat—and they have been playing like a world-beater ever since.
Golden State has the NBA's best record (21-2), longest winning streak (16 games and counting) and highest net efficiency rating (plus-12.3 points per 100 possessions). The Warriors are the league's top shooting team (48.2 percent) and owners of its lowest field-goal percentage allowed (41.1).
Their highest-paid player, David Lee, has been limited by a strained hamstring to a total of one game and seven minutes on the season. As much as his rebounding could provide a lift for this group and his scoring might help stabilize the second team, it's hard to pretend the Warriors are missing what he brings.
With Lee inching his way back, Golden State's front office and coaching staff both must decide what to do with the skilled big man.
First-year coach Steve Kerr seems to have a plan for Lee, but a healthy Golden State frontcourt looks extremely crowded. The Warriors have leaned heavily on the defensive versatility and three-point shooting of forwards Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala. Reserve center Marreese Speights has nearly tossed in a point per minute (12.0 in 16.7 minutes). Of course, being overloaded with skilled problems sounds like a nice problem to have.
"Golden State is already fantastically rich in talent and potential, and Lee's return could make it even richer," wrote Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
But it's still a sticky situation if egos creep into the conversation. And the Warriors' brass might decide to sniff out cost-cutting deals for Lee if it can so the franchise can free up enough money to keep Draymond Green around once he hits restricted free agency next summer.
There are a lot of layers to this debate, and the Warriors must delicately unravel all of them over the coming weeks and months.
Derrick Rose's Long Road Back
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Is this the real Derrick Rose? Not the old MVP, but rather the one finding his footing on two surgically repaired knees?
The 26-year-old has been occasionally dominant, but he's looked good far more often than great. When searching for the source of Chicago's 15 wins, one should first stop at Jimmy Butler (20.9 points, 48.4 percent shooting) and Pau Gasol (18.7 points, 11.9 rebounds) before getting to Rose (16.8 points on 42.1 percent shooting, 5.1 assists against 3.3 turnovers).
Maybe these are still signs of rust. After all, he sandwiched just 10 appearances between a pair of serious knee injuries the past two seasons. At this point, it's certainly possible that the process of returning to form is far more important than the actual production.
"The only way he's going to come back is by playing and working. That's it," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters after the team's 93-86 loss to the Hawks on Dec. 15. "... Overall, he's doing well."
The problem is Chicago needs something substantially greater than Rose "doing well" if it hopes to raise its first Michael Jordan-less championship banner inside the United Center. As good as Butler and Gasol have looked, they could really benefit from moving into secondary roles behind Rose if that's possible.
Rose is a different player right now, both in terms of his numbers and the way he's gone about putting them up. The 28.1 percent perimeter shooter has seen three-point attempts account for a career-high 39.0 percent of his shots. Only 21.9 percent of his looks have come within three feet of the basket, which would be a career low.
Rose may never attack the way he used to, but he'll have to figure out how to clean up his production for the Bulls to have a realistic championship chance.
Oklahoma City's Steep Upward Trajectory
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have already nearly gotten the sour taste of their 3-12 start out of their mouths. Since Russell Westbrook (hand) and Kevin Durant (foot) rejoined the fold, this team has quickly forced its way back into the championship discussion.
Westbrook was the first to return to action, appearing first in the Thunder's Nov. 28 massacre of the New York Knicks. Starting with that win, Oklahoma City has quickly compiled a 7-1 record over its last eight games. During that stretch, the Thunder have a league-leading plus-13.4 net rating.
And despite their sluggish start, they are currently only a half-game out of the Western Conference's No. 8 seed.
"Don't let their record fool you: The Thunder belong in the upper echelon," wrote Sports Illustrated's Matt Dollinger. "Finally at full strength...OKC might have its deepest roster in years."
Westbrook is performing at an MVP level. Since his return, he has put up 27.3 points on 50.3 percent shooting, 7.3 assists and 6.9 rebounds. Durant, the reigning MVP, hasn't been too far behind. In less than 29 minutes a night, he has gone for 20.9 points on 51.1 percent shooting, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists.
With Reggie Jackson (16.6 points), Serge Ibaka (14.7) and Jeremy Lamb (11.3) to help carry the scoring load, this offense has an astronomical ceiling. And this long, athletic, disruptive defense was playing at an elite level even without Westbrook and Durant.
For as strong as the West looks at the top, it will be interesting to see how many teams wind up finishing ahead of the finally healthy Thunder.
The Swirling Trade Winds
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The unofficial trade season is upon us. And it's already bursting at the seams with juicy, perhaps fortune-changing rumors.
ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Ohm Youngmisuk brought word recently that the Brooklyn Nets have made former All-Stars Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez available on the trade market. Stein reported the Charlotte Hornets have done the same with swingman Lance Stephenson, while sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski that Charlotte has tried shopping Stephenson to the Nets and Indiana Pacers.
Team executives told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck they expect the Phoenix Suns to move one of their three point guards: Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas. Beck also heard the Detroit Pistons have put Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings "firmly on the block," while rival execs also said they expect the Boston Celtics "to test the waters" with impending free agent Rajon Rondo.
Beck added that David Lee, Dion Waiters and all New York Knicks not named Carmelo Anthony are among the trade targets to watch.
Lately, the buildup to the trade deadline has been infinitely more exciting than the transactions themselves. But there are number of intriguing names already being bandied about. Their current clubs have various incentives for gauging their value on the open market, while potential buyers will have their own reasons for giving them a look.
Maybe that won't result in anything close to a blockbuster exchange. But if it does, this untold story could have as big an impact as any on the postseason picture.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
