Colts Offense Must Improve to Become an Elite Unit

Quite possibly the biggest misconception among Indianapolis Colts fans this season revolves around Andrew Luck and the offense. 

The sentiment goes something like this: "The Colts really need to work on their defense, but at least they have an elite offense."

Or, for the more pessimistic, it might look like this: "It's the same old issues for the Colts. The offense is elite, but the defense will keep this team from going on a playoff run."

The sentiment isn't completely off base. After all, it has been the Colts offense that has been the better unit, with much better talent overall. The Colts put up some record-shattering numbers earlier in the season, especially in the passing game. 

But that ignores a key fact: The Colts don't have an elite offense, as they reminded us forcefully on Sunday. 

There are a number of reasons why people might think the Colts offense was among the league's best. For one, TV announcers have loved to call the Colts "the NFL's No. 1 offense," based on the Colts' gaudy total yards stats. The Colts currently rank third in total yards, first in passing yards and third in total points. For good measure, the Colts also rank in the top five in points per drive. 

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Another big factor is, unfortunately, fantasy football. The Colts have produced a number of top fantasy performers in standard-scoring leagues this season, starting with Andrew Luck. Not only has Luck been ESPN.com's  top scorer all season, but he's been very consistent, scoring no less than 14 points all season and under 18 just twice. By ESPN.com's Consistency Rating, Luck has been the most consistent quarterback all season.

But it's not just Luck, at least not in ESPN's standard scoring.

Despite the Colts' lack of rushing game, Ahmad Bradshaw was in the top 10 in running back scoring per game before his injury. T.Y. Hilton has scored the fifth-most fantasy points among wide receivers this year. Both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are in the top 11 among tight ends. Adam Vinatieri ranks third among kickers. 

At just about every position, the Colts have had great total production in fantasy football, and it has a real effect on public perception. 

But in real football, the Colts haven't been elite offensively. 

Arguably the best metric for measuring team performance is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Football Outsiders' signature advanced statistic. 

For those unfamiliar with DVOA, it measures efficiency on a play-by-play basis and compares it to the rest of the league, while also adjusting for opponent. For more information, visit Football Outsiders.

The Colts ranked just 13th in offensive DVOA prior to Week 15, and no, their uninspiring performance against Houston in Week 15 likely won't be bumping that ranking up anytime soon. 

Now, DVOA is not perfect, and I wouldn't personally rank the Colts as the 13th-best offense in the league, but it's much closer to 10 than it is to No. 1. 

Other non-traditional measurements tell similar stories. The Colts rank ninth in total offensive grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required), eighth in offensive Expected Points Added (EPA) and 20th in offensive Win Percentage Added (WPA), per Advanced NFL Analytics. 

Why does Indianapolis drop down so much on these metrics? There are two main areas that hold the Colts back. 

The first is turnovers. Just under 15 percent of the Colts' drives end in turnovers, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

No, I'm not talking about Andrew Luck's interceptions. Luck has thrown 14 interceptions this year, yes, but he also drops back to pass more than any other quarterback in the league, and by a wide margin. Luck has 640 dropbacks this season, 52 more than the next quarterback, Matt Ryan. Luck's interception percentage is just 2.4 percent, slightly above the NFL average of 2.5 percent. 

Sure, you would want Luck to be better than just average when it comes to interceptions, but it's not what holds the offense back. When you throw as much as the Colts do and are aggressively throwing downfield, interceptions will occasionally happen.

What isn't acceptable, however, is the team's fumbles. The Colts' 14 lost fumbles is the second-highest total in the league, and it's the reason why the team's turnover rate is so high.

A big part of that is Luck and his propensity to try to make something happen while being taken down, but it has been a team problem, especially recently. Against Houston, it was Reggie Wayne. Against Cleveland it was T.Y. Hilton. Against the Washington Redskins it was Dan Herron. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars it was everybody. 

You can live with Luck's touchdown-to-interception ratio of 38-14. You would take it in a heartbeat. The fumbles, on the other hand, are a problem. 

The second thing that hampers the Colts offense is the running game, or lack thereof. 

The Colts' rushing DVOA is 23rd in the league this season, and it's largely because of the stubbornness in playing Trent Richardson. 

Dan Herron's DVOA of 4.4 percent (prior to Week 15) would rank 15th among starting running backs. Trent Richardson's minus-14.7 percent ranks 34th out of 38 qualifying backs. Richardson has been outplayed by Herron in each of the last four weeks but continues to get a large portion of the snaps. 

Opponent	Herron Total Yards	Touches	Yards/Touch	Richardson Yards	Touches	Yards/Touch
JAC	96	17	5.65	42	13	3.23
WAS	96	10	9.60	12	8	0.67
CLE	71	12	5.92	30	7	4.29
HOU	72	13	5.54	41	11	3.73
Total	335	52	6.44	125	39	3.21

It's no coincidence that the Colts running game has gotten going late in all four weeks, as the Colts have trusted Herron with the late, crucial carries instead of Richardson. Herron had five carries for 35 yards on the Colts' final drive on Sunday, having been given just six carries on the Colts' previous 12 drives. 

By giving Richardson the ball early, the Colts are wasting downs and making things more difficult on Luck and the passing offense, not easier. 

In addition, the Colts would be much more dangerous if they could get the running game going on short-yardage downs. The Colts convert less than 60 percent of their short-yardage (two or less yards to go) opportunities, the 24th-highest rate in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

With football games often decided by one or two plays, especially in the postseason, an improved short-yardage game could swing a game in the Colts' favor. 

But currently, taking everything into consideration should make the conclusion fairly clear: The Colts have a good offense, but not a great one. 

The thing about the Colts is that they have the potential to put together great, or elite, performances at any time. They are arguably the most dangerous offense in the league, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, because of their ability to string together dominant stretches and create big plays. 

The potential is there, with Luck and his bevy of weapons. But potential means nothing if it doesn't translate into results. Until the Colts become a bit more balanced and cut back on the game-altering turnovers, they'll continue to look up at the league's best offenses.