Which Western Conference Power Should Scare Spurs Most?
The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies will spend Tuesday night trying to smash each other to bits while the San Antonio Spurs, the indomitable reigning NBA champs quietly coasting through another formality of a regular season, watch and wait.
The gaudy win totals of both the Dubs and Grizzlies have them in first and second place in one of the most competitive conferences the league has ever seen, and their meeting on Dec. 16 will be historically significant:
But because the Spurs are who they are—the NBA's most time-tested, continuity-flaunting machine of basketball dominance—it still feels like everyone else in the West is merely auditioning for the role of San Antonio's No. 1 challenger.
Maybe that's a crazy way to view the conference. Maybe assuming the Spurs are still the West's top team underestimates the impact of aging; it definitely does a disservice to the four teams that currently have more wins on the season than San Antonio does—Golden State and Memphis in particular.
Nearly 20 years of consistently elite basketball means the Spurs have the benefit of the doubt like no one else, though. San Antonio is running this house until somebody drives it to the old folks home for good.
"Look, I retired 12 years ago, and the same three top players and the same coach are still over there...it's insane," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after falling to San Antonio on Nov. 11, per Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle.
So as the Dubs and Grizzlies square off in an epic showdown, those of us watching along with the Spurs should be asking one question: Which of these two clubs poses the biggest threat to the five-time champs?
The Case for Memphis
At 19-4, the Grizzlies are off to the best start in franchise history. But beating up on the rest of the league isn't the same as beating up on the Spurs.
Fortunately, Memphis has some pieces that could give San Antonio trouble.
In Tony Allen and Mike Conley, the Grizz have a pair of exceptionally stingy backcourt defenders—a must-have when tangling with a Spurs team that depends on penetration to get its half-court offense humming. Straight-line drives by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will meet stout resistance from Allen and Conley, which will challenge the Spurs to seek out drive-and-kick chances by other means.
No issue there: The Spurs are probably the most fundamentally sound (and persistent) pick-and-roll team in the league. No squad screens like the Spurs, who are masters at changing angles at the last second and varying their timing.
Allen might be the hardest guard to screen in the game, though, which makes him an ideal antagonist for San Antonio's pick-heavy play.
"He don't stop,'' Kendrick Perkins told reporters during Memphis' first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder last year, per The Associated Press, via Yahoo Sports. ''He's going to keep coming. He's fast. He's faster than what a lot of people realize. And he gets real small on screens, so if you screen him, he does a good job of getting on a guy's hip and recovering.''
Conley isn't as strong or rangy as Allen is, but he's quick and knows how to steer offensive players to help.
With a slimmer Marc Gasol playing the best offense of his career, more shooting on the wing than ever (thanks to Vince Carter and Courtney Lee) and Zach Randolph still grinding out points on the offensive glass, the Grizzlies are a dangerous, balanced outfit.
Still, San Antonio beat Memphis in all four meetings last year, holding it under 94 points in three of them. Going back farther, the Spurs swept the Grizzlies out of the Western Conference Finals in 2013.
This year, the Spurs are 1-0 against the Grizz, winning 107-101 on Dec. 5 despite 28 points and 12 rebounds from Gasol.
The Grizzlies will defend, force the Spurs to work and may have the best offense of this core's five-plus-year run together. It seems fair to say they're better equipped than ever to take down the Spurs.
But San Antonio has owned this matchup recently, and I'm not sure Memphis has improved to the point where we should expect the tide to turn.
The Case for Golden State
Line 'em up, and knock 'em down. The Warriors are crushing all comers this season, surging to their own franchise-best start while getting a grand total of seven minutes from two-time All-Star David Lee.
The Dubs are deep, possess a defense that has lapped the field and rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency, per NBA.com, despite still tinkering with a freshly installed attack that borrows heavily from Gregg Popovich's scheme with the Spurs.
Unlike the Grizzlies, Golden State can comfortably outscore San Antonio. Stephen Curry is a virus who crashes even the most carefully programmed defensive systems. His off-the-dribble shooting range forces defenders to stretch their coverage to distances previously deemed nonthreatening.
A split second of inattention is all it takes for Curry to find the opening he needs to fling up a contested 28-footer off the dribble—a shot that is, incredibly, really not a bad one for the most dangerous sniper in the game.
Klay Thompson has a gravity nearly as great as Curry's, and Draymond Green is probably the NBA's very first stretch 4 on offense who also causes havoc at all five positions on the other end. Andrew Bogut is the league's most statistically impactful interior defender, as evidence by his 91.3 individual defensive rating—best in the NBA, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Andre Iguodala still does all the little things, and Harrison Barnes' career has been resurrected. He's shooting 52.8 percent from the field and 41.5 percent from downtown.
Shaun Livingston has also rounded into form after toe surgery cost him almost all of training camp, and he's been a force on the block. San Antonio's smaller guards will need help containing him in the post.
The 21-2 record and league-topping net rating of plus-12.3 say it clearly: The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season.
Whether they're the best team in a matchup with the Spurs is another question, though.
San Antonio has beaten the Dubs a ridiculous 31 straight times at home (dating back to 1997!), and it swept all four games last season. In the 2012-13 playoffs, the Warriors put up a fight but ultimately fell to the Spurs in the conference semifinals.
Of Golden State's two losses this year, the Spurs are responsible for one, a 113-100 teaching moment on Nov. 11.
The Warriors are a dominant team, but the Spurs have dominated them for a very, very long time.
Verdict: Warriors
It's a close call, and one that would quickly reverse if Bogut's knee tendinitis were to limit him in any potential matchup with the Spurs, but the Warriors are the pick.
Golden State is a deeper, more balanced team than the Grizzlies, and beating the Spurs will require improvisation and multiple angles of attack. Improved though it is, I'm still not sold on Memphis' offense. And remember, Gasol is only a couple of weeks removed from a scare involving the right knee that cost him 23 games last year.
Courtney Lee is shooting 55 percent from three, Conley is at 44.9 percent and even Tayshaun Prince has hit half of his triples. Those are numbers bound to regress, and when they do, the Grizzlies will face the same spacing struggles that have always cramped their offense.
Injury is the only looming red flag for the Warriors.
The best way to survive the Western Conference's playoff gauntlet is to avoid the Spurs entirely. But if one of these two teams has to do battle with the defending champs, the Dubs have the best shot to land an era-ending knockout blow.
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