Can Bengals' Run Game Carry Andy Dalton, Cincinnati into Playoffs?

The Cincinnati Bengals traveled to Cleveland in Week 15, beating the rival Browns 30-0. Uncharacteristically, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did not have a great day, yet the team was dominant.

Dalton completed just 14 of his 24 pass attempts, for 117 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. He was sacked twice. He averaged 4.9 yards per pass and had a quarterback rating of 53.6 on the day.

What carried the offense was the run game, led by rookie back and newly minted starter Jeremy Hill and assisted by Giovani Bernard and even Rex Burkhead. With the comfort of a lead and the run game earning big gains on seemingly every drive, the Bengals offense combined for 244 rushing yards and three rushing touchdown on 45 total carries.

This switch from a pass-heavy, Dalton-centric offense to one featuring a heavy dose of the run is something relatively new, even with a run-friendly offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson. The Bengals had run the ball an average of 29.3 times per game going into Week 15. However, it wasn't the force behind their wins—Dalton was.

Though the Browns' ineptitude on offense allowed the Bengals to maintain and grow their lead via running the ball, what the Bengals accomplished on Sunday could be a good template for how to approach their final two games of the season.

The Bengals currently lead in the AFC North with a 9-4-1 record, but they have a tough final stretch compared to the other two contenders in the race, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals host the Denver Broncos on Monday night in Week 16 before going on the road to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

This newfound success in the run game could help power the Bengals through these tough two contests and lead them into the playoffs, just as long as they stay as committed to it as they were on Sunday in Cleveland.

Hill lead the way against the Browns, with 25 carries for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry. Bernard had 15 rushes of his own, netting him 79 yards—a 5.3 yards-per-carry average. Burkhead ran just three times for 14 yards, but he also added a touchdown and averaged 4.7 yards per carry.

	Atts.	Yds.	YPR	TD
Hill	25	148	5.9	2
Bernard	15	79	5.3	0
Burkhead	3	14	4.7	1
CIN Total	45	244	5.4	3

Hill also is the Bengals' rushing leader this year, with 177 carries for 877 yards and eight touchdowns. Bernard, who had missed time with shoulder and hip injuries, has 157 carries on the year, for 636 yards and five touchdowns.

Hill is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and Bernard, 4.1. The two have combined for 79 rushing first downs this season and have yards-per-game averages better than any other Bengals' skill player aside from receiver A.J. Green.

So the talent and capability are in place for the Bengals to lean on the run game to help carry them to the postseason. It's just a question of if the two defenses they'll be facing to close out the year will comply with this plan.

Offenses, on average, do not run against the Broncos and Steelers, owing heavily to both teams' abilities to score points. The more they score, the less opponents run. Teams are running just an average of 21.0 times against the Broncos and 23.2 times against the Steelers. 

Team	Opp. Rush Atts./G.	Opp. Rush Yds/G.	Opp. YPR	Rush TD/G.	Rush 1st D/G.
Broncos	21.0	71.6	3.4	.6	3.4
Steelers	23.2	103.0	4.4	.6	5.6

Unsurprisingly, those low numbers of attempts aren't yielding many yards. The Broncos defense ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game, at 71.6; the Steelers are ninth, at 103.0. Both are also allowing an average of just .6 rushing touchdowns per game.

The two defenses differ against the run in significant ways, however. The Broncos are giving up an average of 3.4 yards per rush, compared to the Steelers at 4.4, and Denver is allowing just 3.4 rushing first downs per game compared to 5.6 for the Steelers.

That seems to indicate that the Bengals would have an easier time running the ball and using the run game to win against the Steelers. However, there are ways to replicate Week 15's success even against the formidable Broncos on Monday night.

It seems like a no-brainer—get a lead, keep Peyton Manning off the field, eat clock. And for the Bengals, that means a good dose of Dalton, of course—his connection to Green cannot be underestimated—but if the run game is to be the main feature, then it needs to be established early and never veered away from.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Running the ball can also help avoid something that has plagued Dalton during his entire professional career: wilting under the prime-time lights. The Bengals have won just two of their eight night games during Dalton's tenure. While the six losses aren't all on Dalton, he wasn't a major help in them, either.

Minimizing Dalton's struggles while featured on national television is just one benefit of running the ball. It also highlights something that has become a real strength for the Bengals. Prior to their game against the Browns, Football Outsiders ranked the Bengals' run-blocking as 20th-best in the NFL.

However, they ranked fifth in runs that had been stuffed—instances where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage—and seventh in open-field rushing yardage. That says one thing—Hill and Bernard are tough to tackle, regardless of how much help they are getting from their blockers.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the Broncos defense has missed a collective 97 tackles this season and the Steelers, 92. That's 6.92 missed tackles on average per game for the Broncos and 6.57 per game for the Steelers.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

If those six to seven missed tackles come against strong open-field runners like Hill and Bernard, the Bengals may just be able to ride their run game all the way into an AFC North title and the playoffs.

It will be challenging, however.

There is always the temptation to focus on Dalton throwing the ball, especially with the myriad weapons at his disposal. There is the threat of falling too far behind, not just against Denver on Monday night but also against the Steelers, who just amassed 42 points against the Bengals in Week 14, taking away their ability to run the ball. There's also the fact that neither Denver's nor Pittsburgh's defense struggles against the run as the Browns do. 

But the Bengals at least proved in Week 15 that when they concentrate on running the ball, it can produce significant, game-winning results. The run game also proved to be able to carry the offense when Dalton's not having a great day. Those facts are powerful ammunition for the Bengals as they close out the season with two difficult tests.