
7 Available Pitchers Still Within Reach of the Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have been one of the most active teams this offseason. Their lineup is set, but it's well-known they could still use rotation help and a bullpen boost. Despite a flurry of moves that altered the MLB landscape during the winter meetings, there are still plenty of remaining options who can improve Boston's World Series odds.
It seems Max Scherzer isn't a possibility since his asking price is $200 million, according to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi. If Boston would only go to $135 million for their guy Jon Lester, then I don't see them breaking the bank for Scherzer. James Shields remains available, but my position on "Big Game James" is well documented so I won't bother re-hashing those criticisms again.
However, here are seven players who could fill some pitching needs and be good fits in Beantown.
Johnny Cueto
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The reigning National League Cy Young runner-up finally got some respect in 2014, making his first career All-Star appearance. He's put together a strong four-year run, going 53-25 with a 2.48 ERA in 677.1 innings since 2011.
The Cincinnati Reds are shopping multiple key pieces. Mat Latos has already been dealt to the Marlins, while Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports that Jay Bruce has been involved in trade discussions. Furthermore, MLB.com reports that Cincinnati "appears willing to listen" on trades for three-time All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman.
As a result, Cueto could be available for the right package.
The Cincinnati Enquirer's C. Trent Rosecrans notes that the Reds have begun initial contract talks with their homegrown talent. However, given how the starting pitcher market has ballooned in recent years, it seems Cueto would have to take a serious hometown discount in order for the cost-cutting Reds to retain his services. With that seeming unlikely, Cincinnati could deal the soon-to-be 29-year-old and shed his $10 million salary while acquiring prospects for the 2016 free-agent-to-be before he departs for greener (pun-intended) pastures.
Looking at the Reds' current roster and farm system, they are in need of young pitching and an MLB-ready outfielder. The Red Sox can offer up Eduardo Rodriguez (the left-hander whom Baseball America ranks as Boston's No. 4 prospect entering 2015), Brandon Workman (Boston's No. 8 prospect entering last season who struggled in his 128.2 MLB innings) and Jackie Bradley Jr. or Daniel Nava. (Shane Victorino and Allen Craig's contracts make them undesirable to Cincinnati unless Boston eats some salary.)
Cueto is two years younger than Jon Lester and Cole Hamels, which gives him extra time in the prototypical prime of a starting pitcher. He's coming off his best season where he led the majors in innings pitched (243.2) and strikeouts (242) while going 20-9 with a career-low 2.25 ERA. Before voicing the usual "NL pitcher coming to the American League" concerns, keep in mind that Cueto is 12-5 with a 2.48 ERA in 23 interleague starts. He's also pitched his home games in Great American Ball Park, which has been one of the most hitter-friendly havens since 2005, according to ESPN.com.
If Boston can ensure Cueto will sign a long-term deal with the club, I could see general manager Ben Cherington upping his offer. He could include top pitching prospect Henry Owens in place of Rodriguez.
Owens may seem like a hefty price to pay for Red Sox fans who see his sparkling Triple-A numbers, but many scouts project him as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. One of them is MLB.com's Bernie Pleskoff, who notes his fastball velocity limitations and the need for his curveball to develop further.
Aces don't come cheap, and that package seems reasonable. Given Cueto's younger age, I'd prefer to sacrifice Owens for Cueto rather than Hamels if Boston gets an extension agreement in place prior to finalizing a trade.
Cole Hamels
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The Phillies have finally accepted that it's time to rebuild. They sent Jimmy Rollins to LA, reportedly also shopped four-time Silver Slugger Chase Utley, according to Yahoo's Tim Brown, and are now reportedly fielding offers for Cole Hamels, per Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.
The former World Series MVP has three All-Star games, a 3.27 career ERA and a glowing reference from former teammate and current Red Sox RF Shane Victorino to his name, per WEEI:
"I'll take Cole Hamels in a heartbeat as one of our starters,” Victorino said by phone. “I know he's been there. I know what kind of guy he is. I know what kind of pitcher he is. When he takes that ball he wants to win. He comes across as this nonchalant guy, or laid back. But when it's time to go, Cole Hamels is one of the most prepared, hard-working guys I’ve been around.
"
The intrigue is that Hamels may be attainable without surrendering top pitching prospect Henry Owens. Unlike the Reds who have a good catcher in Devin Mesoraco, Philadelphia could use a young backstop with Carlos Ruiz entering the twilight of his career.
Enter Blake Swihart. The 2011 first-round pick is ranked as the superior prospect to Owens and the top up-and-coming player under Boston's control, per Baseball America. He is more expendable given the rave reviews Christian Vazquez has drawn. Swihart can be the centerpiece of a Hamels deal, paired with Boston's fifth-ranked prospect—LHP Brian Johnson—and another pitcher or shortstop Deven Marrero to replace Rollins.
Prospects are valued commodities, but a lot of these guys can appear better on paper. While so many perceived farm system gems don't pan out, the Red Sox know that Hamels can anchor the staff for the foreseeable future. Victorino echoed those sentiments later in his WEEI interview. "People get fixated on prospects. Well, this guy has all the upside in the world. Has Cole Hamels done it? Yes. So why not go get Cole Hamels at whatever expense is needed?"
"Whatever expense" seems extreme. The reason Hamels and Cueto are more likely than Jordan Zimmerman is the asking price. The Nationals, unlike the Phillies and Reds, can win a World Series this season and may even be the 2015 favorites.
As USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports, Zimmerman is available given Washington's concerns he'll depart in free agency. However, that doesn't mean they'll go the Oklahoma City Thunder route and break up their contender prematurely. I imagine the Nationals would want Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts as the centerpiece of any Zimmerman deal, and I doubt the Red Sox will make either of them available. Swihart or Owens is more negotiable; therefore, Hamels remains a more realistic target.
Hiroki Kuroda
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Kuroda is the most reliable arm left on the free-agent market. He also has the chance to come at a reasonable price since he'll turn 40 years old in February. According to Chris Cotillo of SBNation, Edinson Volquez signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Royals Wednesday, and that would seem to be in the ballpark of a contract the aging Kuroda would command. The question is if he wants to continue to pitch, as Fox Sports' Jon Morosi reports he's considering retirement as well as a return to Japan.
His age is obviously a concern to some degree, but Kuroda has shown his durability by logging 196-plus innings in each of the past five seasons. During that same time frame, he has a 3.36 ERA and 1.168 WHIP across those 1018.1 innings of work. Kuroda succeeded in the bandbox that is Yankees Stadium (3.02 ERA in 331.1 career innings in the new "House that Ruth Built"), making it seem reasonable he could transition to Fenway Park despite his past struggles in Boston (5.02 ERA in 37.2 innings).
The Red Sox tried to seduce Kuroda once before, as ESPN.com reported the club's "aggressive" pursuit of the right-handed pitcher back in 2011. Kuroda didn't waive his no-trade clause at that time, eventually signing with the Yankees the following offseason. But the desire to bring him aboard shows Boston's appreciation for his skills. Given the current state of the Yankees, a return to New York now seems less appealing since it's highly questionable the pinstripes will seriously vie for a title in the next year or two.
However, going with the notion Kuroda would want to pitch for a contender, can Boston convince him it's in that position? A lot of No. 3-caliber starters make up the Red Sox rotation, and though each has potential to ascend higher, there is equal risk of trending the other way. There is no true ace to be found, and unlike a Cueto or Hamels addition, Kuroda can't come in to fill that No. 1 role.
It's possible the Red Sox can sell him on having a top-five offense that will carry the team with a solid staff behind the batters. Kuroda would be another dependable starter and allow for spring training competition to push Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly.
The Red Sox's successful stints with Japanese pitchers may also be enticing for Kuroda. They provided good experiences for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima in the past and still employ Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. In a world where you're constantly communicating through an interpreter, having two fellow countrymen on your team seems like a nice perk to offer.
Kris Medlen
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Medlen would be another high-upside dice roll for a Red Sox. He's never been an All-Star but has pitched at a high level during his time in the majors. The 29-year-old put up a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his five years with the Braves, oscillating between the bullpen and starting rotation.
As a full-time starter in 2013, he pitched a career-high 197 innings with a 3.11 ERA. The advanced pitching stats also suggest the right-handed pitcher hasn't been overly lucky, as his career FIP (fielding independent pitching) and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) are 3.23 and 3.39, respectively, per FanGraphs.
Atlanta's former top-10 prospect, Medlen is available at a presumed steep discount after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery last spring. The Braves decided to non-tender the right-hander, being unwilling to give him $4.64 million with the uncertainty surrounding his elbow.
Given his age and with how many Tommy John success stories there have been, it would seem like a reasonable gamble to offer him a two-year, incentive-laden contract that includes a team or player option for a third season. Would a $8 million guaranteed base salary over the first two seasons with increases tied to All-Star games and innings pitched be enough to lure Medlen to Boston?
The 2006 10th-round selection has the benefit of being a successful MLB reliever. If his elbow can't endure the rigors of pitching 180-plus innings per season that's expected from a starter, he can transition back to the bullpen. There he has the upside to be a quality setup man down the road.
Left-Handed Relievers: Thatcher, Downs and Burnett
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After missing out on Andrew Miller, the Red Sox employ Tommy Layne and Drake Britton as left-handed relievers. The duo has had some major league success, but their combined MLB experience is a mere 72 innings. That means a veteran lefty with a more proven track record would be a good addition to the Boston bullpen.
Joe Thatcher isn't the sexiest of names, but since 2009 he has a 2.96 ERA and 211 strikeouts in 191.1 innings pitched. Left-handed batters are hitting just .242 off the 33-year-old over the past three seasons, which raises the intrigue he provides.
Aside from the longtime Padre, Scott Downs and Sean Burnett are the best LHP options available in a weak market. Downs has a prolonged history of success, compiling a 2.33 ERA in 379.1 innings from 2007 to 2013. However, he'll be 39 years old come Opening Day and just had his worst year since 2004 (4.97 ERA). Having said that, his late-season turnaround after being acquired by the Royals (3.14 ERA in 14.1 innings) offers hope that his arm still has some reliable innings left.
As for Burnett, he'd be a midseason option in 2015 at the earliest as he recovers from June Tommy John surgery. Those weren't the first elbow issues for the 32-year-old, as he managed just 9.2 innings in 2013 when he required an operation to fix his flexor tendon. Yet the former first-round selection still elicits interest due to his 2.76 ERA in 176.1 innings from 2010 to 2012.
Given Boston's penchant for reclamation projects the past few years, the latter two options can't be ruled out. However, unlike Medlen who has strong starter upside, the reward is limited on this pair.
That makes Thatcher the better fit. He's the most trustworthy of the trio and shouldn't be overly costly as a left-handed specialist. His career FIP (3.21) is even better than the ERA he has over his eight MLB seasons (3.40), so fans shouldn't presume an automatic regression is in store. A two-year, $6 million contract with a third-year team option seems like a fair price that could draw the left-hander to the Northeast.

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