Ranking the 10 Most Surprising Players of the 2014-15 NBA Season's Early Portion
Admit it.
You probably didn't expect Jimmy Butler to become one the league's 10-most prolific scorers in just his fourth season. Once billed as something of a defensive specialist, few saw this kind of output coming. We all knew he was good, and we were reasonably certain he'd continue getting better.
But an 8.4-point per-game increase over last season's already-solid mark (13.1 points per game)?
Even Butler's most ardent believers should be wowed by that.
Few stories are as compelling as Butler's, but he's hardly this season's only eye-opener. We've ranked the young season's 10-most surprising performers, highlighting some individual trends our preseason forecasts may not have anticipated.
It's an admittedly subjective exercise, so suggestions are always welcome in the comment section. This list is the result of several variables—outlying numbers, lesser-known names on the rise and guys who seem to be developing more quickly than expected.
Put simply, these are the kind of players who keep things interesting.
All statistics and records current as of games played on Dec. 11.
10. Courtney Lee, Memphis Grizzlies
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Courtney Lee entered the season with six-years worth of three-and-D credentials at the professional level. He's been the consummate catch-and-shoot role player, and he's done a pretty good job at it. He even averaged 12.5 points per game during his sophomore campaign back in 2009-10—marginally more than he's scoring right now.
So what's so surprising about the first month and change of his 2014-15 season?
Lee is making 53.6 percent of his field-goal attempts, which ranks 13th league-wide on a list predictably dominated by big men and the high-percentage shots they often take. In fact, the only other players who are under 6'6" and making at least 50 percent of their shots are Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul and Tony Parker—all of whom currently trail Lee's mark.
Even more impressively, Lee's 51.9 percent mark from behind the three-point arc ranks third league-wide behind Kyle Korver and Rasual Butler.
It's hard to imagine Lee staying this hot all season long, but he's a smart shooter who lets offense come to him. The results are no accident.
9. Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings
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Darren Collison has always been a pretty good player. He even turned heads as a rookie, starting 37 games for an injured Chris Paul in New Orleans and establishing himself almost instantly as one of the league's better backcourt speedsters.
But he's played for four different teams in his first five seasons, struggling to find a home only starting on a part-time basis during his last two seasons with the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers.
This season hasn't been his most efficient, and his increased production has a lot to do with the career-high 35 minutes per contest he's playing through his first 20 appearances. Collison finally seems to have found that home, and he's quickly emerged as the Sacramento Kings' third option behind DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.
Having never scored more than 13.2 points per contest in his previous five campaigns, the 27-year-old is currently averaging 16.3 points per game along with a career-high 6.3 assists. It's not the first time Collison's had a good season, but it's the first time he's taken a measurable step beyond that solid rookie year.
The UCLA product signed a relatively modest three-year, $16 million pact with the Kings this summer, and there appeared to be some risk Sacramento had taken a significant step back after signing and trading Isaiah Thomas to the Phoenix Suns.
Collison hasn't been quite as productive or efficient as Thomas was on the offensive end last season, but he's a defensive upgrade and an important part of this team's decent start in a highly competitive Western Conference.
8. Donald Sloan (and Co.), Indiana Pacers
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The Indiana Pacers needed help from some unlikely places in the wake of Paul George's season-ending injury and Lance Stephenson's departure via free agency.
And while their 7-15 start suggests they haven't gotten nearly enough of that help, three relatively anonymous contributors have stepped up in a big way. Donald Sloan, Solomon Hill and Chris Copeland are all averaging double-figure points for the first time in their respective careers.
Sloan has started 18 games at point guard, tallying 10.7 points and 4.8 assists per contest. Last season, he averaged just 2.3 points in 8.2 minutes per game. The fourth-year veteran has made sporadic appearances in stints with the Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Hornets (now Pelicans) and Cleveland Cavaliers, but he'd never seen this much action at the pro level.
Meanwhile, Hill is averaging 10.9 points and 5.1 rebounds through his first 22 appearances, all contests in which he started at the small forward spot.
As a rookie last season, the Arizona product only averaged 1.7 points and played in 28 games, failing to carve out a consistent role behind George or Stephenson.
Thanks to a solid rookie debut with the New York Knicks in 2012-13, Copeland is the least surprising of the three, but his 11 points per contest still put him on pace for a career high.
Unfortunately, each of these guys is making less than 40 percent of his field-goal attempts—which partially explains why their minutes were so scarce when this team was at full strength a season ago.
Their inefficiency notwithstanding, they deserve credit for keeping these Pacers out of last place in the NBA standings. On paper, that's right where this team belongs.
7. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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There was never any doubt about the Greek Freak's potential. They don't give nicknames like that to just anybody.
Still, the initial thought was Giannis Antetokounmpo would be something of a project. At the rock bottom of their rebuilding process, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Antetokounmpo with the No. 15 overall pick in 2013.
Having just turned 20 this month, the second-year pro is averaging 12.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game—marked increases over last season's 6.8 points and 4.4 rebounds. Despite a modest increase in playing time, Antetokounmpo is looking for his shot more aggressively and making 48.1 percent of his field-goal attempts.
With a 6'11" frame and limbs that go on forever, Antetokounmpo can handle the ball and create all kinds of havoc off the dribble. He's doing so with greater regularity this season, and it appears to be paying off.
As Sports Illustrated's Ben Leibowitz recently noted, "Under new head coach Jason Kidd, he's launched just 15 attempts from deep—less than one attempt per contest. Instead of focusing on spreading the floor, Giannis has put an emphasis on getting higher percentage looks by attacking the basket and drawing fouls."
So far, that's translating into 4.3 free-throw attempts per game. Now making more of his unreal physical tools, Antetokounmpo is proving the optimistic hype hasn't been unfounded.
6. Marreese Speights, Golden State Warriors
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Marreese Speights is pushing preconceived limits about just how much can be accomplished in 16.5 minutes per game, and he's quietly played an instrumental role in the Golden State Warriors' phenomenal start.
Thanks in large part to a hamstring injury that's sidelined power forward David Lee for all but seven minutes this season, the 27-year-old reserve is averaging a career-high 12.5 points, while making an impressive 53.7 percent of his field-goal attempts.
Throw in some rebounds and a little defense and the seventh-year veteran is posting a ridiculous 25.16 player efficiency rating, per ESPN.com, which ranks 10th-overall league-wide, according to Hollinger Stats.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Speights actually leads the league (among players totaling at least 300 minutes) with 27.2 points per 36 minutes.
Given increased playing time and the license to attempt more shots, chances are Speights' numbers would be a bit more pedestrian. But there's no getting around how good he's been in these admittedly limited doses.
Given Draymond Green's emergence—and ability to space the floor from the 4 spot—Speights' opportunities have been somewhat limited in spite of his strong performances. He's carved out a niche as the second unit's de facto center, but ideally he'd see increased time at power forward as well.
Unfortunately, things will become even more complicated when Lee returns to the floor (which should be sometime relatively soon)—but Speights should continue to find time behind Andrew Bogut, even if that means playing alongside Lee.
"Mo [Speights] is a more natural 5 anyway, and he's such a good jump-shooter," head coach Steve Kerr told the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami earlier this month. "And David's a really good low-post scorer and passer. There's no reason why [them playing together] can't work."
Barring injury to someone in the frontcourt, Speights' minutes probably won't increase anytime soon.
So far, that hasn't deterred him one bit.
5. Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic
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Tobias Harris' production isn't entirely without precedent.
After the Orlando Magic acquired him from the Milwaukee Bucks in February 2013, Harris went on to average 17.3 points and 8.5 rebounds through his remaining 27 games, making the most of playing time that had skyrocketed from 11.6 minutes per contest (with Milwaukee) to an average of 36.1 minutes.
An early—and ultimately nagging—ankle sprain limited the Tennessee product a season ago, likely interrupting what might have otherwise been an improvement upon his debut with the club.
Now, however, the fourth-year veteran is posting a career-high 18.7 points per game, while making 48.1 percent of his field-goal attempts and 43.6 percent of those attempts from beyond the three-point arc.
Coupled with the fact that Orlando's 9-15 start to the season has itself been something of a surprise, Harris' super-efficient contributions are especially praise-worthy. This isn't just a decent player exaggerating his production on a bad team.
The up-and-coming Magic are beginning to turn heads ever so slightly, and Harris has been one of the primary reasons.
4. Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic
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Harris hasn't been the only reason for Orlando's improvement, however.
The even more surprising culprit is swingman Evan Fournier, averaging a career-high 14.2 points per contest, while making 44.2 percent of his field-goal attempts (including 40.8 percent of his three-point attempts).
Acquired from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for veteran Arron Afflalo this summer, the third-year Frenchman is still just 22 years old—a perfect fit for a talented young team still emerging from its post-Dwight Howard rebuilding process.
Fournier's nascent ponytail may be his calling card on the road, but fans in Orlando are increasingly recognizing him as a starting shooting guard with all kinds of potential. After a 28-point career high in November's 97-95 win against the New York Knicks, it seems possible Fournier could be more than just another sweet-shooting role player.
As Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman noted in November, Fournier's upside, "goes far beyond just outside shooting."
"At 6'7" with a handle and crafty playmaking instincts, his versatility can create problems for a defense in the half court," Wasserman wrote. "Coach Jacque Vaughn has even used Fournier as a pick-and-pop facilitator, where he's got a nice feel as a setup man and the willingness to give it up."
Though he's so far averaging just 2.2 assists per game, there's certainly room for growth. Fournier can create offense (for himself or others), and he can do it off the dribble. He still has plenty to learn and prove, but he's already one of this season's most pleasant surprises.
3. Tony Wroten, Philadelphia 76ers
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Starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams missed the Philadelphia 76ers' first seven games while recovering from shoulder surgery.
Teammate Tony Wroten took full advantage.
The 21-year-old established himself as a much-improved scorer and playmaker from the season's outset, even tallying a career-high 31 points in a narrow 118-115 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Nov. 7. Through his first 15 appearances, he's averaging a career-high 17.9 points and 6.3 assists per contest—more than twice the three assists he averaged last season.
Without Carter-Williams on the floor in those first seven games, he averaged 21.9 points and 6.7 assists.
As CSNPhilly.com's John Gonzalez observed in Novemvber:
"In MCW's absence, Wroten dominated the ball and inflated his stats. It wasn't surprising. Wroten was a heavy-usage player last year, and with MCW on the mend and no good options behind him at point guard, Wroten was allowed to dribble and drive all he wanted. And he wanted to do that a lot.
"
Though a right-knee sprain has sidelined the Washington product for six games so far, he's clearly set to adopt a more prominent role in his third season.
Faced with heavy doses of Carter-Williams from here on out, Wroten's numbers may subside a bit. But while he'll handle the ball less frequently, he's almost sure to remain the club's first or second option on the offensive end.
To be sure, statistical inflation isn't unusual on bad teams, and that likely has a little something to do with Wroten's apparent emergence. For a guy taken by a different team (the Memphis Grizzlies) with the No. 25 overall pick in 2012, this still qualifies as a pretty golden opportunity for a player on the rise.
The shooting hasn't always been pretty (41.4 percent at the moment), but Wroten is showing the kind of assertiveness and playmaking ability that should allow him to stick around in this league—and maybe even play a starring role in the process.
2. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
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Not all surprises are especially welcome.
The Portland Trail Blazers have so far weathered Nic Batum's early slump, thanks in large part to Wes Matthews' 17.1 points per contest and 48.9 percent shooting. And to his credit, Batum is still rebounding (six per contest), passing (5.1 assists per game) and defending.
He just isn't scoring many buckets.
His 8.7 points per game would mark the first time since his rookie season (2008-09) that he hasn't averaged double-figure points. And while he hasn't made fewer than 42.3 percent of his field-goal attempts in any of his previous six seasons, he's currently making just 37.5 percent of his shots—along with a 24.4 percent mark from beyond the three-point line.
The long-distance inefficiency is particularly anomalous. The 25-year-old's career low from beyond the arc was 34.5 percent back in 2010-11.
"I was in that same slump," Matthews told reporters earlier this month. "Nic's got to shoot that ball. He's a tremendous shooter, and we need him to shoot those. Make or miss, that shot has got to go up if that's our best look."
One has to assume Batum will find some rhythm sooner or later. He's better than this.
"It happens to guys at different times, but three-point shooting, I'm not concerned about that," head coach Terry Stotts told media this month. "He's a career 36, 37, whatever three-point shooter—those things even themselves out. The important thing for us and for him is that he continue to do the other things, and his stroke will come back."
1. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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For those who've paid any attention to the Chicago Bulls over the last two seasons, Jimmy Butler's emergence isn't exactly news. He's steadily become a reliable two-way weapon through his first three seasons, but we're seeing something more this season.
On the heels of averaging 13.1 points per contest a season ago, the 25-year-old is now scoring 21.5 points per game through his first 19 appearances—tied with Miami Heat star Chris Bosh for the ninth-best mark in the league.
He's also making a career-high 49.3 percent of his field-goal attempts, and his 8.5 free-throw attempts per contest are the fourth-most league-wide, just behind James Harden, Dwight Howard and Russell Westbrook.
"I can't say enough about what he's done," head coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters earlier this month. "Jimmy's been terrific on both sides of the ball. He's been a great leader, practices extremely well, prepares, studies. Doesn't take any plays off.
"I think he's built those habits through the way he practices, and you can see it. He's got maximum effort on every play, he's got great concentration on every play. If you do that, you're going to be successful."
Having balked at Chicago's four-year, $40 million extension offer, Butler's set to become a restricted free agent at season's end—at which point he'll find some serious success on the financial front, as well.
"Why not have a [max contract] be a goal?" Butler told Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver in November. "When I hear 'max player,' I just think about being able to take my family to Bora Bora or something, going on a nice vacation.
"Because I don’t really pay attention to the money. I just love the game of basketball. As long as I'm happy and it's my job, I'm good. Money has never been too much of a thing for me. I grew up without it. I can manage with the amount of money I have now."
And he'll manage all the more easily with the money he has a year from now.
