Grading the Seattle Mariners Offseason Post-Winter Meetings

As usual, the annual MLB winter meetings brought a flurry of activity to the offseason

The Seattle Mariners didn't make any free-agent signings or trades during the four-day event in San Diego, but they have still been active over the past few weeks. Seattle's biggest move so far has been adding Nelson Cruz on a four-year, $58 million contract after coming close with him on a deal last winter, via Greg Johns of MLB.com

Cruz improves the current roster and makes the playoffs a very reasonable bar heading into 2015. Unfortunately, the Mariners' subsequent trade of Michael Saunders leaves a big question mark in right field.

That means the Mariners still have some moves to make. General manager Jack Zduriencik said there's no reason to worry about the team not getting anything done at the winter meetings, via Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune:

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There’s this (feeling) that when you’re at the Winter Meetings. There’s this hype. It’s like, 'It’s all going to happen at the Winter Meetings.' But that isn’t the case. Sometimes, it’s better to get away from here. Get back and let the dust settle. You’ve had all of these discussions. The one thing you realize when you’re here, is there are a lot of discussions. They follow one another.There are so many things that get thrown out there...And it’s like, wait a minute. We like some of these ideas, but we just need to back off a little bit. We’re in the middle of December.

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The Mariners have more work to do, but their offseason grades out well so far.

Mariners trade INF Ty Kelly to St. Louis Cardinals for SP Sam Gaviglio

Kelly has yet to debut in the major leagues at age 26, but he has an intriguing skill set. He can play a number of positions around the infield, has posted walk rates of at least 16.3 percent the last two years in Triple-A and showed some pop with 15 home runs in 2014.

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Unfortunately for Kelly, there was no real place for him on Seattle's active roster, particularly with Willie Bloomquist around. The Mariners decided to trade him for starting pitching depth in the form of right-hander Sam Gaviglio.

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Cardinals acquire INF Ty Kelly for P Sam Gaviglio in minor league swap with Mariners http://t.co/KbuptjrvJZ #STLCards #mlb

— St.Louis Cardinals (@topCardinals) November 21, 2014"

Gaviglio posted a 4.28 ERA (3.24 FIP) in 136.2 innings of Double-A last season with a strikeout rate of 20.5 percent and walk rate of 7.6 percent. He's also two years younger than Kelly, meaning he has the potential to develop as a prospect more.

Baseball America offered a scouting report of Gaviglio prior to the 2011 draft:

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He can reach back for 90 mph on occasion, but mostly sits in the 86-89 mph range. He gets tremendous sink on his fastball, but can still command the pitch and he lives in the bottom half of the strike zone. The movement makes Gaviglio a groundball machine and he mixes in an above-average changeup and a good slider... Gaviglio knows how to win but ultimately is what he is—a back-end of the rotation type of guy.

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With Taijuan Walker and James Paxton in the majors, the Mariners don't have much pitching at the upper levels of their farm system. Even if it would be great to see Kelly get a shot, it's hard to fault the Mariners much for this move with the current construction of the system.

Overall: B. Kelly might be the more interesting player, but this move made some sense from a depth standpoint.

Mariners give Kyle Seager a seven-year, $100 million contract extension

Seager has quietly been one of Seattle's best players over the past three seasons and finally received some national attention in 2014. The 27-year-old totaled 5.5 WAR, 15th-best in the majors, while playing in his first All-Star game and winning a Gold Glove.

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

He deserves to be mentioned as part of the Mariners core, right with Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez. It was time to lock Seager down for the long term, so applaud Jack Zduriencik for completing a deal before the offseason really began to heat up.

The extension covers Seager's age-27 though age-33 seasons, with a club option for the eighth year. That includes three years of arbitration where Seager would have made somewhere around $30 million, meaning the Mariners bought four free-agency years for about $70 million.

With the way the market currently pays players, particularly at premier positions like third base, it's hard to argue that the Mariners didn't do well with this deal. When compared to someone like Pablo Sandoval, who signed a five-year, $95 million dollar contract and has totaled 4.9 less WAR than Seager over the past three seasons, it looks like a steal.

Grade: A. Extending Seager was one of Seattle's main offseason priorities. The Mariners not only got it done, but got a very team-friendly deal.

Mariners sign OF/DH Nelson Cruz to four-year, $58 million deal

The Mariners finally got their man after two offseasons worth of rumors. It hurts to think that Seattle could have signed Cruz for cheap last year and that might have been enough to get the Mariners into the playoffs, but it makes more sense to add him now during the club's current window of contention.

Everyone in the Seattle front office knows the risks that Cruz brings. Cruz is 34 years old, so he won't be contributing much the last year or two of his contract. He can't play defense and wasn't particularly good in the second half last season despite playing in an extreme hitters park.

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Still, Cruz has posted wRC+ totals of 122 and 137 over the past two seasons and has enough power to be successful at Safeco Field. Given that the Mariners got a grand total of minus-2.1 WAR from the designated hitter position a year ago, Cruz is basically guaranteed to be a substantial upgrade barring disaster.

If the Mariners can figure out something in right field, the upgrade that Cruz brings may be enough to make them legitimate championship contenders.

Grade: B+. There's a ton of risk here, but Cruz will make the Mariners better for in the short term. It was the right time to go for it.

Mariners trade OF Michael Saunders to the Toronto Blue Jays for SP J.A. Happ

It seemed inevitable that the Mariners would trade Saunders after Zduriencik's comments at a season-ending press conference. That weakened their bargaining position from the beginning, and Seattle ended up getting an underwhelming return.

Saunders has the tools to be a very valuable player but has been unable to stay healthy at key moments in his career. Even so, he posted 1.9 WAR in 78 games last season, ranking just behind Dustin Ackley and well ahead of any other Seattle outfielder.

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

As the roster currently stands, Seattle's starting right fielder would be James Jones or Stefen Romero. That obviously means the Mariners will make another move—possibly Melky Cabrera or Nori Aoki—but now they need to add a starting right fielder and fourth outfielder without Saunders.

Happ isn't enough for Saunders, but he can provide something to the team. The Mariners needed starting pitching depth, and Happ can provide that as a No. 5 or long-relief man, and his fly-ball tendencies will play better in Seattle than Toronto.

The fact that Toronto is covering some of Happ's salary, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider), also makes this deal look a little better than when it was announced:

Even so, the Mariners could regret this trade, especially if they have to give up any long-term assets to acquire a right fielder.

Grade: C-. Seattle sold low on a talented player, and now the right-field situation is a complete question mark. 

Overall: B+. The Saunders trade hurts for now, but the Mariners added a bat without giving up any long-term assets and extended a core member of their team for a reasonable price. Still, Seattle shouldn't be done yet.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.