Broncos vs. Chargers: Breaking Down Denver's Game Plan
The Denver Broncos are back on the winning track. A big reason why they’ve gone on a three-game winning streak since losing to the St. Louis Rams in Week 11 is the emergence of running back C.J. Anderson.
The Broncos have transformed right before our eyes this season. With quarterback Peyton Manning they are one of the most dangerous passing teams in the league. However, since Anderson has been running so hot the Broncos now win games by pounding the ball on the ground.
The limited passing game has caused some Broncos fans to panic with concern over Manning’s arm/health. Manning has stated more than once over the last two weeks that he’s feeling good at this late point in the season, and this week was no different.
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“I don’t have a great answer for them, I guess. I’m always trying to play better, always watch the film of the games pretty critically with my coaches, trying to improve whether we won a game or lost a game, trying to see how I can do my job better in whatever phase that is.” Manning emphasized, “So I feel good physically, and certainly I’m always looking to play better.”
In addition to the running game, the Broncos defense has been coming through on the team’s winning streak. This week they’ll face a familiar opponent in San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.
Broncos head coach John Fox had nothing but praise for the veteran quarterback when talking about him on Monday.
“He’s very good. He’s had a very productive year, one of the better performing quarterbacks in the National Football League [out of the] ones we’ve seen. We’ve already gotten to play him once, but [he is a] pretty intense competitor. We’ll have our hands full for sure.”
They played the Chargers earlier this season, and the Broncos came out on top 35-21. Fox went over a few of San Diego’s differences from then until now.
“They’ve had a change at center. [RB Ryan] Mathews being back [and that] obviously makes them a little more potent at that position. [QB] Philip [Rivers’] play is as good at the quarterback position as most quarterbacks in the league, and they’ve got some worthy guys in the receiving corps as well as tight ends.”
Fox concluded, “So a good offense that is playing well this season. Their defense is opportunistic, primarily with turnovers.”
How will the Denver Broncos attack the San Diego Chargers on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.
When the Broncos Run the Ball
For the first time in four weeks, Anderson failed to get over 100 all-purpose yards. In Week 14, the Buffalo Bills held him to just 58 yards rushing. However, Anderson did plow his way to three touchdowns against Buffalo.
No team has run more frequently than the Broncos (54 percent of plays) over the last three weeks. The Broncos have averaged just over 182 yards rushing during that span with Anderson leading all players in rushing.
| Weeks | Rush Pct % | Rush/Gm | Rush YPG | YPC |
| 1-11 | 35 | 24.3 | 89.9 | 3.7 |
| 12-14 | 54 | 36.3 | 182.7 | 5.0 |
He missed practice on Wednesday with what is considered a minor ankle injury. I interviewed Anderson earlier this week on my ESPN Denver radio show. Anderson feels good and says that he’s good to go on Sunday:
"#Broncos CJ Anderson on his ankle/health "I'm fine, I feel good and I'll be ready on Sunday."
— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) December 9, 2014"
Anderson should get a decent workload against the Chargers. Expecting him to tote the rock around 20 times sounds about right. Last time Denver played against the Chargers, Ronnie Hillman had 20 carries for 109 yards. Hillman also kicked in 29 yards receiving in that game. Anderson could end Week 15 with a similar stat line.
Behind Anderson, we’ll continue to see Juwan Thompson as his primary backup. Thompson has looked great on limited snaps, and we could see his playing time inch up just a bit to give Anderson a break.
Both Hillman and Montee Ball are close to returning from their injuries. While playing this week might be out of the question, we could see both back on the field around Week 17.
The Chargers' rush defense is ranked 14th in the NFL, and it allows an average of 108.4 rushing yards per game. Last week, the Chargers allowed New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount only 66 rushing yards. As a team, the Patriots only had 87 yards rushing on 28 carries (3.1 yards per carry).
Expect Anderson and Thompson to have more success this week than Blount and company did last week.
When the Broncos Pass the Ball
The Broncos have changed their ways in recent weeks. After starting the season as expected with a pass-happy offense, Denver has switched gears to be more of a rushing team over the last three weeks.
This week, we could see the Broncos get balance back—but this time they’ll achieve balance by passing the ball more.
One asset that could really help is the expected return of tight end Julius Thomas. In Week 14, Thomas was active against the Bills, but he did not play a snap. Manning has targeted tight ends just five times in the last three games without Thomas.
This week, Thomas should see the field—and his return will be a welcome sight. Thomas knows the Chargers defense well.
“One thing they do is they change coverages a lot so you’ve got to be prepared for them to try to do a lot of disguising, rotating from two-high to one-high. They do a lot of blitz zones, so you’ve always got to be ready for pressure, and that is something that I think they’ve done consistently.” Thomas pondered, “I think they mix it up a lot, and you’ve kind of just got to more react than try to prepare before the snap.”
In addition to Julius Thomas, the Broncos should have a healthier Demaryius Thomas in Week 15. Against the Buffalo Bills, Demaryius played but was clearly slowed down by an ankle injury he suffered during practice last week.
The Broncos held Demaryius Thomas out of practice on Wednesday, but it was likely just a precaution. Denver practiced without shoulder pads or helmets on Wednesday to give their players a much-needed break.
The Thomases are dangerous, but so is Emmanuel Sanders. He’s shown incredible toughness all season long, and last week was no different. Sanders was beat up on a couple of routes against the Bills, but he stayed in the game and took the top off the defense.
The last time Sanders played the Chargers, he had nine catches for 120 yards receiving and a whopping three touchdowns. While he may not duplicate that success, snaring around 100 yards and one touchdown is a distinct possibility.
With other receivers banged-up or struggling to produce, Wes Welker has gone back to being a favorite target of Manning. Welker led the team in receiving last week against the Bills, finishing the game with six catches for 82 yards.
If both Thomases are healthy and on the field, it could change the target distribution for the Broncos. That means Welker could have a smaller role against the Chargers.
The Chargers pass defense is currently the eighth-best in the NFL. They allow an average of 228.4 passing yards per game so far in 2014. That’s a solid number, but they’re weak in other ways.
San Diego has surrendered 22 passing touchdowns this year, and they’ve only generated 19 sacks (28th in the NFL), while snaring seven interceptions (27th in the NFL).
When the Chargers Run the Ball
The Chargers' rushing attack is going to look different this time around. The last time these two teams went against each other, Ryan Mathews was out with a knee injury. Now, Mathews is healthy, and he will do his best to soften up the defensive front.
Broncos defensive tackle Terrance Knighton feels confident about stuffing the Chargers when they try to run. According to Knighton, Mathews being healthy for this game won’t change the defensive approach.
“No. We don’t change for running backs. We change for schemes but not for running backs. It doesn’t matter if Adrian Peterson was back there. If we do what we do up front, it really doesn’t matter; no ball-carrier is going to get through.”
Mathews missed practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury. He was injured in the first half last week against the New England Patriots and only carried the ball twice (for negative eight yards) in the second half. He could play against Denver on Sunday, but it sounds like he won’t be at full strength.
Behind Mathews are guys such as Donald Brown and Branden Oliver. Neither one is much of a threat if he is forced into a larger role because of Mathews being banged-up.
The Broncos have the second-best rushing defense in the league. They only allow an average of 72.8 yards rushing per game. Over the last two weeks combined against the likes of Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) and Fred Jackson (Bills), Denver has allowed only 115 yards rushing on 31 carries. A banged-up Mathews and company may not be that successful against the Broncos this week.
When the Chargers Pass the Ball
The Chargers will likely design a game plan around running the ball, eating up the time of possession to keep Manning and the Broncos offense cold on the sidelines. While in theory this sounds like a plan that could work, in reality they had better be ready to go into pass-happy mode.
The Broncos could get out to a 10-point lead on the Chargers, and they will have to abandon balance. Their rushing attack may not have much success against Denver anyway, and this is where Philip Rivers and the passing game come into play.
Fox knows that playing against Rivers presents quite the challenge.
“He’s very good. He’s had a very productive year, one of the better performing quarterbacks in the National Football League [out of the] ones we’ve seen. We’ve already gotten to play him once, but [he is a] pretty intense competitor.” Fox succinctly said, “We’ll have our hands full for sure.”
Rivers lost last week at the hands of the Patriots, but in December or January, he is 33-7 in his career. Only Tom Brady has a better win percentage during these months since 2004.
A favorite target for Rivers is second-year wide receiver Keenan Allen. He was covered tightly by Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis last week, and Allen was held to two catches for three yards. Allen was riding a hot streak entering the Patriots game, and he’s looking to get back on track against the Broncos.
| Week | Targets/Game | Receptions/Game | Yards/Game | TDs |
| 12-13 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 112.5 | 3 |
| 14 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
The last time Allen faced Denver, he had nine catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. A similar stat line this week is not out of the question.
On the opposite side of Allen will be veteran Malcom Floyd. He’s a big target (6’5”) and has a large wingspan which makes him a fine target on deep passes or in the red zone.
On underneath routes, the Chargers have a couple of quality options. One is slot receiver Eddie Royal. The former Broncos receiver is quick, fast and elusive when running routes over the middle. He can also be a sneaky target when the Chargers are near pay dirt.
The Chargers still have one of the best tight ends in the game in Antonio Gates. Sure, he’s not quite what he used to be, but Gates could be incredibly effective against a Broncos defense that historically struggles against move tight ends.
Denver’s pass defense is ranked 13th in the NFL with an average of 238.2 net passing yards allowed per game. The 38 sacks generated in 2014 is good for fourth-best in the NFL.
The Broncos will bring the heat when going after Rivers. They’ll need to play disciplined against the aggressive veteran quarterback, but it could be a long day for Rivers on Sunday.
Summary
This game has incredible importance for the Broncos. With a win, the Broncos can win the AFC West for the fourth year in a row. They can also maintain their spot as the second seed in the conference so long as they beat the Chargers. The Broncos could improve that standing if the Patriots lose this week (and the Broncos win).
Manning knows how critical these divisional matchups are as the team makes a push to the playoffs.
“These division games count double, so I think you do put special emphasis on division games, and that is how we’re looking at it. It’s the second game of this fourth quarter, and it’s a game that is—it’s a lot on the line.”
Manning continued, “It’s a game that you want to play well and you want to do your job and try to find a way to come away with a victory, but it’s tough.”
Playing in San Diego is no picnic. “It’s tough playing there. Every time we’ve played this team, it seems like it’s been settled by a couple points here or there, and that is what you’d expect this time around.” Manning said.
This week will have a playoff atmosphere. The Broncos and Chargers know each other well, and this should be a hard-fought contest in Week 15. Denver will use Anderson as a battering ram, but this week we could see Manning and the passing game get back on track.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.
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