Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals still cling to the lead in the AFC North, while the Cleveland Browns are in last place.

But Cleveland has won and covered three of the last four meetings in this Buckeye State rivalry, including an upset victory at Paul Brown Stadium last month.

In a game that serves as Johnny Manziel's intro as the starting quarterback and will help decide a division title, the 7-6 Browns host the 8-4-1 Bengals Sunday afternoon at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.2-15.8 Browns

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals had won three games in a row, all on the road, going 2-1 against the spread, but they let one slip away last week in a 42-21 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, that game was a lot closer than that final score might indicate.

Cincy led 21-17 through three quarters before the Steelers scored three touchdowns, one on a 94-yard Ben Roethlisberger-to-Martavis Bryant bomb that put the game away. Still, the Bengals lead the AFC North by a half-game over both Pittsburgh and the Baltimore Ravens. But with games remaining against the Denver Broncos and Steelers, they need this one badly.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns have lost three of their last four games but still have hopes of reaching the playoffs. Last week Cleveland lost at home to the Indianapolis Colts, 25-24, but covered as a three-point home dog.

The Browns outrushed the Colts 111-93 and led 24-19 late until allowing an Indy touchdown with less than a minute to go. They then just missed on a long pass that might have set up a game-winning field goal.

If Cleveland just would have gotten a little better play from quarterback Brian Hoyer, or had kicker Billy Cundiff not missed a 40-yard field goal in the second quarter or had the defense stopped Colts running back Dan Herron on a 4th-and-1 at the 3-yard line on the final drive, it might have won that game.

Now its over to Manziel to produce some magic in the Dawg Pound.

Smart Pick

This game is a complete tossup. Cincy might be the better team, but Cleveland has beaten the Bengals three out of the last four meetings.

And the Browns embarrassed the Bengals on their home field just a few weeks ago, winning 24-3. But Cincinnati would like nothing more than to return the favor Sunday. So the smart money here resides with the Bengals, despite the threat Manziel poses as the inspired new quarterback.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road.
• The total has gone under in five of Cleveland's last five games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.