Exploring the Milwaukee Bucks' Regular-Season Ceiling
It's only December, but the Milwaukee Bucks are quickly closing in on their entire win total from the 2013-14 season, heightening overall expectations for the team at this early juncture. And while it's certainly reasonable to expect more from the Bucks, the excitement must still be tempered.
With a win against the Memphis Grizzlies and competitive games with the Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers, the Bucks have proven they can compete with just about anyone.
But can they keep it up? And just exactly what is this team's ceiling?
The simple answer to the latter question: a .500 squad.
And one of the factors that will determine just how good the Bucks can be—at least on paper—is their schedule. Let's take a look at how things play out in the immediate future.
Schedule
According to ESPN, the Bucks currently have a strength of schedule that ranks 29th. In case you are unfamiliar with the number of NBA teams, that's second-to-last.
Now, is that the sole reason Milwaukee has had success early on?
Absolutely not.
The Bucks can't control who's on the schedule and when. All they can do is take the floor each night and put forth maximum effort. And that's exactly what they've done over the first month and a half.
However, they are in the midst of a brutal stretch of games against top Western Conference teams, and it's becoming apparent that they aren't ready to compete against those squads on a consistent basis. Sure, an early-season victory against the Grizzlies was a statement win, but fans shouldn't expect those kinds of wins. At least not yet.
In the month of December, the Bucks are just 1-4, with their sole victory coming at home against the Miami Heat.
The reason for that: two games against the Dallas Mavericks and trips to Cleveland and Oklahoma City.
Clearly, the scheduling gods didn't want the Bucks celebrating the holiday season too much.
As December progresses, they'll play the Los Angeles Clippers twice, make trips to Phoenix and Portland, take on the streaking Atlanta Hawks twice and end the calendar year back in Cleveland with the Cavs.
"Brutal" doesn't even begin to describe this month.
In fact, it's a month that could very well derail the Bucks' momentum. Lose a few games or lose confidence, and things can take a turn for the worse in a hurry.
Truthfully, the Bucks need to weather the storm for the rest of December. January is a bit less hectic, and there are many more winnable games on tap.
As the team continues to grow, build chemistry and gain experience, more games will move into that "winnable" category. But in the immediate future, this team is going to have to play flawless basketball in hopes of escaping the end of the month with a .500 record.
Fortunately, the entire season isn't defined by one month, and in a shoddy Eastern Conference, they'll find themselves in position to win on plenty of occasions.
Scoring
When they say defense wins championships, they always forget to mention that you have to have a competent offense as well.
For Milwaukee, consistently putting points on the board has been something of a struggle.
Though improving of late, the Bucks still rank 20th in points per game at 98.8, and their offensive rating of 103.6 ranks 22nd. Outside of Brandon Knight, the team doesn't have a consistent, go-to scorer, which will need to change.
Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo have both become more dangerous and consistent on offense as the season has progressed—and so has the entire team—but the Bucks are still not great offensively. In fact, they're pretty much a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to scoring and efficiency.
We've seen them score in bunches one night and struggle to find a bucket the next. And while that isn't unusual for any team, it has almost become routine for this one.
Part of the reason for the inconsistency on offense may be the fact that coach Jason Kidd goes so deep into his roster. The Bucks have seven players logging more than 20 minutes per game, and there isn't a player on the roster who is averaging fewer than 12 minutes.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe pointed out in a recent article, regularly using that many players can be beneficial for a defense that operates in such a relentless manner. However, it's reasonable to believe that being rotated in and out of the lineup can hurt a player's production offensively, killing momentum.
Much of Milwaukee's success will be dependent on whether or not it can continue scoring points like it has in recent outings. The Bucks are averaging 105.0 points over the previous five games, which shows that they're figuring out ways to score. Unfortunately, they're also allowing 108.4 points per game.
Scoring while continuing to play an aggressive style of defense will be a tough balancing act that they will need to figure out. Perhaps Kidd will need to give a little defensively to gain something offensively.
Experience
Sometimes, inexperienced teams with no fear and nothing to lose play great basketball. Other times, they succumb to adversity and end up taking a turn for the worse.
While the latter scenario wouldn't be awful—landing a top pick in the draft isn't a bad thing—seeing a young team compete definitely is more encouraging in terms of long-term goals and potential.
So far, the Bucks have given fans a glimpse of the future, and it's exciting.
But this team's youth may prevent them from reaching the expectations that have now been bestowed upon them. Given that the Eastern Conference is, to put it politely, terrible, the Bucks actually have a legitimate shot at making the postseason. And that, correctly or not, has raised the expectations for some.
With the playoffs potentially a realistic proposition, the players may feel added pressure from fans who feel like making the postseason is a must. And whether or not those expectations would be warranted, it is something that could occur.
Without many veteran leaders who can step up and put this team on their backs, the Bucks will rely on rookies and other young players who have not spent a ton of time in the thick of playoff races, leaving them vulnerable to mistakes and perhaps some bad losses.
Ultimately, the makeup of this team allows them to perform at the .500 level—which should be good enough to get into the playoffs—but their youth and inexperience will likely prevent them from progressing.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, it just means the Bucks are at least a few years away from being serious contenders in the East.
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