Expert Preseason College Football Predictions That Were Way Wrong
Well, they looked good at the time...
Less than four months ago, when the 2014 college football season was still to be played, the long offseason made for a lot of idle time. One way to fill this void is with a healthy dose of expectation, speculation and prognostication.
In other words, preseason predictions.
Which school will win the first-ever College Football Playoff? Who is in line to win the Heisman Trophy? What will be the breakout team in 2014? Who will rise? Who will fall?
Really, it's all about trying to make educated guesses based on past results and a perception of the future. If they all came true, the predictors would probably be better off devoting their time to sports betting.
For the most part, the experts in college football didn't do so badly this year. Presumptive Heisman winner Marcus Mariota was at or near the top of nearly every preseason ranking for the award, while Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Oregon were among the more frequent choices to qualify for the semifinals.
Where did we go horribly wrong, though? Check out some expert preseason predictions that fell far short of coming true.
UCLA Will Reach the Playoffs
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Looking back at the preseason Associated Press Top 25, voters didn't do too badly. The teams that made the first-ever playoff were all ranked in the Top Five in that initial poll, garnering all but one of the first-place votes.
But not every expert ended up being as accurate or going as "chalk" as what the AP did. Broadcaster Tim Brando was among those whose predictions were more outside the box, the most notable part being his choice for the No. 1 team in the nation: UCLA.
Brando wasn't the only person on the Bruins bandwagon this season, as they were nearly a unanimous pick by Pac-12 media to win the South Division. However, the same conference media had Oregon as the favorite to win the whole league.
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports went one step further, though, predicting UCLA would not only win the Pac-12, but win the national title.
"In addition to a star quarterback and a capable running game, UCLA has star-caliber players all over its defense—from Myles Jack to Eric Kendricks to Eddie Vanderdoes to several members of the secondary. Jim Mora is pulling a Pete Carroll, going from pro reject to college coaching star in a hurry," he wrote.
UCLA started out 4-0, though its early wins looked uneven. Then it lost back-to-back home games, first to Utah and then Oregon, to all but fall completely out of the playoff picture.
Five straight wins had the Bruins creeping back into the discussion, and the South Division was theirs to take at the end, but a 31-10 home loss to Stanford squashed that opportunity.
Trevor Knight Would Be a Major Heisman Candidate
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Known as the "Heisman Pundit," Chris Huston is among the foremost experts in all things Heisman Trophy—so much so that he was hired by the award itself to provide content to its website this season. His 10 "Heismandments" detail the most time-honored factors that determine who wins the trophy each year.
But even the most learned of scholars can be way off on their predictions from time to time.
Huston was one of many experts who listed Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight as a strong candidate for the Heisman in 2014. Listed behind only Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota and Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall, Knight was considered his No. 3 choice.
Huston noted that Knight's breakout performance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is what initially got him onto the Heisman radar, because "that game did tell us a lot about his untapped potential. ... If he plays all season like he did against Alabama, he'll become Bob Stoops' third Heisman winner."
Knight had 348 passing yards and four touchdowns in that bowl game, totals he never reached in his nine starts this season. He averaged 244.1 passing yards per game, with nine TDs and seven interceptions, before suffering a neck injury late in Oklahoma's Nov. 8 loss to Baylor that caused him to miss the Sooners' final three contests.
South Carolina Will Have Another Big Year
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Coming off three straight 11-2 seasons, South Carolina had appeared to establish a level of success that would last as long as Head Ball Coach Steve Spurrier stuck around. His retirement was still a few years away, and despite losing notables on both sides of the ball, the Gamecocks were getting a lot of hype as a good bet to not only win the SEC East, but maybe the whole conference.
Then South Carolina lost by 24 points, at home, in its season opener. And that was just the beginning of a huge backslide of a season in Columbia.
The Gamecocks would end up 6-6, their worst regular-season record since 2007, going from a team that had an 18-game home win streak to one that went 5-3 in its own stadium.
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Oklahoma Will Dominate the Big 12
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As the league that billed itself before the season as having "One True Champion" because it played a true round-robin schedule (and also lacked a conference title game), the Big 12 began the politicking early when it came to trying to make itself worthy of a playoff spot.
When push came to shove at the end, though, the lack of that extra game—as well as a decision to declare co-champions, despite Baylor beating TCU during the regular season—ended up leaving the Big 12 as the lone power conference left out of the playoff.
But things started off wrong for the Big 12 when its media overwhelmingly chose Oklahoma as its predicted champion.
With 20 starters back from a team that won 11 games (and handily beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl), the Sooners were tabbed by 47 of 56 Big 12 media voters to win the league. Baylor got the remaining nine first-place votes, while TCU was way down in seventh place.
It wasn't just league experts drinking the Oklahoma Kool-Aid, though, as the Sooners began the year ranked fourth in the AP poll. But after a 4-0 start, it was a steady downhill slide, finishing at 8-4 with an astounding three home losses to finish in a three-way tie for fourth.
Jabrill Peppers Will Save Michigan's Season
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He wasn't the No. 1 overall recruit in 2014—that distinction went to LSU running back Leonard Fournette—but Michigan freshman Jabrill Peppers might have been the most hyped, at least in terms of what he meant to his team.
Rated third in the country by 247Sports, Peppers was the biggest recruit the Wolverines had ever landed. And with coach Brady Hoke firmly on the hot seat entering this year, the New Jersey phenom was being looked to as a potential savior for the coach and the program.
"Given the pressure to win in Ann Arbor, there won't, and shouldn't be, any hesitation to maximize Peppers' all-over-the-field ability," wrote Sports Illustrated's Brian Hamilton, who, because of the potential for Peppers to be a two-way star and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, tabbed Michigan as his surprise team for 2014.
Predictions of Peppers being the next Charles Woodson at Michigan were common, but they never came close to coming true this season. He played defensive back and returned a punt during the first month, recording eight tackles, but missed Michigan's second game with an injury.
His last action came in the Wolverines' Sept. 20 loss to Utah, and in November, Hoke announced that Peppers wouldn't play again this season in hopes of him being able to apply for a medical redshirt.
Michigan went on to finish 5-7, and Hoke was fired last week.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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