The Deals Walt Jocketty Needs to Be Pitching at the Winter Meetings

In the absence of many assets offensively (most of them too injured to be considered of significant value), the Cincinnati Reds will likely try to move some of their pitching this offseason. That makes sense considering that four of their five starting pitchers will be free agents following the 2015 season.

With the winter meetings nearly here, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty will have ample opportunity to market his assets and try to strike a deal. And while many Reds fans are anxious for a move—any move—the fact remains that the Reds are very limited in what they can do, mainly for payroll purposes.

For the betterment of the franchise, any deal that's made should obviously reduce payroll, not add to it. With that in mind, here are a couple of deals Jocketty should be pitching at the winter meetings.

Johnny Cueto for Everything

Obviously, it wouldn't be everything, but it'd be close. Shopping for Johnny Cueto is akin to shopping for a new, high-performance sports car. Any team even inquiring on him should understand it's going to be a significant investment, an item that's rarely negotiable. The price tag is what it is. Those who want it can afford it.

The fact that he's only coming with a year of control should mean little to his overall value. David Price garnered two top-five prospects and a mid-level prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays. He was traded with just a year-and-a-half on his contract.

A few weeks ago, I proposed this trade package for Cueto with the Los Angeles Dodgers. At the crux of the trade were L.A.'s Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier and the Dodgers' No. 8 prospect, according to MLB.com, pitcher Chris Reed.

But it doesn't matter which team they deal with; that's the kind of talent the Reds should settle for, and nothing else. I personally think the Reds are far better off keeping their ace and making a serious run in 2015, but Jocketty has to at least be interested in what the return on his ace could be, especially when at the center of these fascinating trade discussions is budget.

Aroldis Chapman for Yoenis Cespedes

Aroldis Chapman has been an exciting sideshow for the Reds. He's Broadway on Joe Nuxhall Way. He also pitched 54 innings last year. How useful is that for a team facing payroll problems with other notable holes to fill?

Chapman has to be expendable for the Reds at this point, and at no fault of his own. Chapman was one of the only reliable arms in a disastrous 2014 bullpen that finished with one of baseball's worst records and ERAs. But it's possible that guys like Sean Marshall and Tony Cingrani get healthy enough to fix it. And Jumbo Diaz has demonstrated a potential to pitch in close, tight games.

The Cuban Missile is once again arbitration-eligible along with eight other Reds. Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors projects around a $3 million raise for Chapman, bringing him close to an $8 million price tag next season. He's simply a luxury the Reds cannot afford.

Just weeks ago, there were rumors, as discussed by John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer about a possible Cueto for Yoenis Cespedes deal. Personally, I think that's ridiculous. Cespedes is a fine talent, one worthy of a good arm, but not for a guy who arguably should have won the Cy Young Award in 2014.

I think Chapman for Cespedes is fair and makes a lot more sense. The Reds avoid what will surely be an expensive arbitration and get a player in return who will cost about $10 million. The Reds would only have one year of control over the 30-year-old right-hander, but he simply isn't putting up the numbers that demand a ridiculous contract—at least not yet.

In three years of MLB experience, he's slashing an OK .263/.319/.423 and averages about 24 home runs a year. 

But even if the Reds cannot sign Cespedes beyond 2015, aren't they virtually in the same position with Chapman? And who is more valuable to the 2015 campaign—a guy who may pitch just 54 innings, or an everyday left-fielding cleanup hitter?

Should Not Be Shopping Jay Bruce

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wrote that the Reds were at least entertaining offers on Jay Bruce. Personally, I think that's an enormous mistake. Selling low is a strategy of the broke. In seven years of MLB experience, Bruce has had precisely one season like last year—that was last year, a year in which he endured arthroscopic knee surgery, which in Cincinnati is the Wilhelm scream of injuries.

Shopping Bruce right now guarantees the Reds get nothing close to what Bruce should be worth. How could they? What GM isn't going to push for a bargain deal for a guy who just slashed .217/.281/.373?

The Reds are trying to add offense. Moving Bruce does the opposite of that. Let's hope these rumors were just fiction.

2015, or Nah?

The entire Reds trade discussion comes down to this: Is this a team you want to realistically compete for a title in 2015 or a team you're willing to disassemble and build for a brighter tomorrow?

Unless the Reds take virtually nothing for their top offensive stars, the only thing they have to move is pitching. And pitching is the only reason the Reds were remotely competitive last year.

Trading any starting pitcher—Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake or Alfredo Simon—ensures the Reds will be worse off than they were in 2014. There is no prospect ready to join the Reds rotation. There are no bargain free-agent pitchers floating around who can just be inserted. For the Reds to compete in 2015, they'll need to return baseball's No. 3 starting pitching ERA.

As much as Reds fans aren't interested in talking injuries, the fact remains that between a healthy Joey Votto, Bruce and Brandon Phillips, and with new contributors like Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, there isn't much the Reds need to do to improve their chances at 2015 besides adding a left fielder. In my opinion, besides addressing left field, getting healthy is more important than wheeling and dealing at the winter meetings.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless noted otherwise.