Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints are 5-7 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season and yet are tied for the lead in the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers haven't won a game in recent memory and yet still aren't out of it in that divisional race. The Saints and the Panthers complete their season series Sunday afternoon at the Superdome.

Point spread: The Saints opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.4-12.8 Saints

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers haven't won a game since early October, and yet, they're 6-6 ATS on the season. So it's not exactly like they have been a terrible bet—a terrible team maybe but a 50/50 betting proposition.

Carolina only owns three victories on the season but has covers against the likes of the Cincinnati Bengals (first place in the AFC North), the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons (tied for first in the NFC South).

The Panthers just lost at Minnesota 31-13, but they outgained the Vikings 348-210, outrushed them 178-92 and won the time of possession by a 36-24 margin. Unfortunately, they also had two punts blocked and returned for touchdowns, which is rather rare.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints arose from the dead last week to upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 35-32. New Orleans had lost three games in a row both SU and ATS, all at home. But the NFL is a strange place, and strange things happen almost every week, such as teams that have lost three in a row going on the road and upsetting playoff contenders.

The Saints built a 35-16 lead before Pittsburgh scored two meaningless touchdowns in the last three minutes to make the score more respectable. New Orleans outrushed the Steelers 143-103, as Mark Ingram bounced back from a 27-yard effort in a loss to Cincinnati two weeks ago to run for 122 yards, and Drew Brees threw five touchdown passes.

As far as this week's matchup goes, New Orleans just beat Carolina back in October 28-10, outgaining the Panthers by 150 yards and covering the spread as a field-goal favorite.

Smart Pick

Carolina, which has struggled to run the ball all season, has actually outrushed its last four opponents. New Orleans, after the big win at Pittsburgh, might be ripe for a letdown. The smart money here resides with the Panthers, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Carolina is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans.
• The total has gone under in 14 of New Orleans' last 20 games when playing Carolina.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.