Patriots vs. Chargers: Complete Week 14 Preview for New England

Despite seeing their seven-game win streak snapped, the New England Patriots are no worse for the wear in the public eye.  In nearly stealing a victory at Lambeau Field, the Pats validated themselves as legitimate contenders for the title of Super Bowl favorite, even in defeat.

However, the stakes grow will grow larger this Sunday against the San Diego Chargers.  At 8-4, the Chargers have survived a spate of injuries to peak ahead of the six-team 7-5 mosh pit in the AFC wild-card chase.  But with an impossibly difficult final month, the Chargers will likely play with the air of a desperate team, knowing that they may very well be underdogs in each of their last four games.

Now tied with the Denver Broncos at 9-3, the Patriots no longer have any margin for error in the race for home-field advantage.  While New England still controls its own destiny, playing a third road game in four weeks is a difficult situation to face.  The last time the Pats endured that stretch, they flopped in the final leg, suffering the indignation of a 41-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

For insight into how the Pats can avoid a similar fate this Sunday in San Diego, read on to see what New England must do to start a new winning streak.

Patriots Week 13 Recap

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

New England built its winning streak partially upon an uber-versatile offense that could adapt to exploit the weaknesses of any defense.  However, against the Packers, Josh McDaniels curiously failed to attack Green Bay's shaky run defense, calling for 36 dropbacks to just 18 runs.

Game situation dictated part of that, as the Pats trailed by 13 after the first quarter.  But in the second half, when New England never trailed by more than nine points, the Patriots still called for runs on just nine of their 20 offensive plays.  Even though the Chargers' weakness is in the secondary, it would make sense for New England to attain more play-calling balance this week.

Defensively, the Chargers may attempt to exploit New England's nickelbacks, as Aaron Rodgers did with rookie Davante Adams.  Green Bay's No. 3 receiver set career highs with 121 yards on 11 targets, as Rodgers mercilessly attacked the helpless trio of Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard.

Though San Diego's offensive arsenal is not quite as potent, Philip Rivers can utilize a similar game plan with Malcolm Floyd or Eddie Royal.  It helps the Chargers that Floyd and Royal are essentially polar opposites—the former is a towering 6'5" perimeter deep threat, whereas the latter is the quintessential jitterbug from the slot.  Whether by screen or by fade, the Chargers can challenge the Pats' sub-package personnel with the full route tree between Floyd and Royal.

While this matchup has received considerably less hype, the Chargers offense has enough balance to attack the Pats with the same multifaceted game plan that the Packers employed.  Therefore, expecting a breezy West Coast trip for the Pats would be folly.

News and Notes

USA TODAY Sports

Jones on the Mend

The Patriots flirted with disaster last season by burdening defensive ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich with unsustainably high snap totals.  Frustratingly, the Pats failed to build depth behind their stalwart bookends this offseason, and when Jones went down with a long-term hip injury, they were punished for their diffidence.  

The Pats have largely survived without their precocious edge-rusher, though Jones' absence was most glaring last week.  Fortunately, as the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe relays, Jones is ratcheting up his participation in practice, which suggests that a return could be imminent:

"

Defensive end Chandler Jones actively participated in an agility drill during the media portion of practice. He leaped over a couple bags before bending over to pick up a fumble in a fundamental drill for the defensive linemen.

Jones has missed five games with a hip injury but has been a limited participant at practice since last week. It’s still unclear if he’ll play on Sunday.

"

Without Jones, the Pats have failed to generate pressure apart from linebacker blitzes.  But while the versatility of Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins has hid warts along the defensive line, the front seven is much more static on the whole without Jones' well-rounded skill set as an edge-setter and rusher.

Praise for Rivers

Though he has not received as much hype as the quarterback the Patriots faced last week, Philip Rivers represents one of the stiffest tests of the year for the New England defense.  According to the Boston Globe's Shalise Manza Young, Bill Belichick still remains impressed with the Chargers quarterback after coaching him at the 2009 Pro Bowl: "Love Rivers. [He’s] really a football guy; very into it. We had a lot of great conversations about just football and he’s very competitive, really smart, has a great understanding and feel for the game. I really enjoyed coaching him. He was outstanding."

Rivers' midseason dip took him out of the MVP discussion, but he has quietly rebounded since the Chargers lost three consecutive games before their bye.  According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Rivers has compiled an 84.5 percent accuracy rate in San Diego's three games since the bye, the second-best mark in the league over that span.

With a well-rounded skill position arsenal and sneaky pocket mobility, Rivers will challenge the Patriots more than many casual observers may believe.  Coaches often pump up the opposition for the sake of political correctness, but in this instance, Belichick's praise is warranted.

Dobson's Season Is Over

"

The Patriots officially placed Aaron Dobson on injured reserve, according to the league transaction wire. No corresponding move as of now.

— Oliver Thomas (@OliverBThomas) December 4, 2014"

The Patriots have witnessed several big sophomore slumps in recent years, from Devin McCourty to Darius Butler and now Logan Ryan.  But while the secondary has suffered the brunt of the curse, arguably no individual has been more disappointing than Aaron Dobson, whose miserable season came to a head-shaking end.

After early struggles, Dobson rebounded to have a quietly successful rookie campaign in 2013.  His 1.65 yards per pass route run ranked second among all rookie receivers, illustrating his increased efficiency and ability to threaten vertically.  Ironically, the Patriots will see the one rookie who finished ahead of Dobson this week in San Diego's Keenan Allen, a player many linked to New England in the predraft process.

Given Allen's development into one of the league's top route-runners, it's clear the Patriots chose poorly once again at the wide receiver position in the draft.  Dobson should not be totally written off headed into training camp next year, but the fact that his departure has been met with little more than a shrug illustrates how stunningly far he fell in his second year.

Injury Report

USA TODAY Sports

Player	Position	Injury Status
Chris White	LB	Did Not Participate
Danny Aiken	LS	Limited Participation
Kyle Arrington	CB	Limited Participation
Dan Connolly	OG	Limited Participation
Dominique Easley	DE/DT	Limited Participation
Julian Edelman	WR	Limited Participation
Cameron Fleming	OT	Limited Participation
Dont'a Hightower	LB	Limited Participation
Chandler Jones	DE	Limited Participation
Brandon LaFell	WR	Limited Participation
Shane Vereen	RB	Limited Participation
Tom Brady	QB	Full Participation
Marcus Cannon	OT	Full Participation

*All injury information via Patriots.com.

The injury list has grown longer since the bye week, but New England has been fortunate to avoid any truly crippling injuries.  Going into Week 14, most of these maladies look more like maintenance situations rather than legitimate reasons for long-term concern.

The two names that should draw some alarm are Arrington and Edelman.  Arrington has left each of the last two games with injuries, and though he has returned to play special teams in each, he did not take another defensive snap after leaving against Detroit and Green Bay.  Facing a Chargers team whose base personnel employs three receivers, the slot corner will play a pivotal role.  Given how Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard have struggled this year, Arrington's status on Sunday bears watching.

Meanwhile, Edelman appeared to aggravate a quad injury he initially suffered against Indianapolis in Week 11. The Pats rotated him in and out of the game after the injury, as his 70.7 percent snap participation rate was his second-lowest total of the season.  If Edelman remains limited, someone like Danny Amendola could see an uptick in snaps.

Again, though, it's hard for the Pats to complain about their injury situation entering the regular season's final month.  For a team with ambitions of playing into February, maintaining that level headed into the postseason is critical.

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

USA TODAY Sports

Rob Gronkowski vs. Eric Weddle

Perennially one of the league's most underrated safeties, Weddle provides the Chargers a viable option to defend Gronkowski.  While he's not the sole reason for San Diego's success, the Chargers have allowed just two red-zone touchdowns all season to tight ends, in large part because of Weddle's presence.

Indeed, he has not allowed a touchdown in coverage all season, and only three safeties have played more coverage snaps while maintaining a spotless sheet.  As one of the league's most versatile defensive backs, look for Weddle to drop down into the box on a frequent basis, both to jam Gronk at the line and provide extra run support for the front seven.

For his part, Gronk has fared well against some of the league's top safeties, most notably Denver's T.J. Ward.  He'll have a fairly significant size advantage over the 5'11", 200-pound Weddle, though the former All-Pro safety plays bigger than his size.

San Diego is unlikely to keep Weddle on Gronkowski the entire game, as that would be minimizing the versatility of the defense's "Joker."  But in third-down and red-zone situations, expect the Chargers to shadow New England's top threat with Weddle and a nickelback or linebacker underneath in bracket coverage.

Brandon Browner vs. Antonio Gates

Browner and Gates may stage a wrestling match while the rest of the game unfolds, as both are among the biggest and most relentlessly physical players at their position.  Matching two lead-footed players against each other might make for some sloppy routes, but this should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the year from a New England perspective.

Though a bevy of lower-body injuries in recent seasons have robbed Gates of his quickness, he remains arguably the league's smartest route-runner at the tight end position.  Consequently, despite relying almost entirely on guile, Gates leads the Chargers in red-zone targets, catches and touchdowns.  Remarkably, all seven of his red-zone receptions have found the end zone, per Pro-Football-Reference.

Matching up against Gates should return Browner to his comfort zone, as he had issues with Jordy Nelson's quickness at times last week.  Browner's best games have come when the Pats utilized him against the other team's biggest weapon, whether it be Julius Thomas, Calvin Johnson or Martellus Bennett.

That may also lead Browner to spend some time on Malcolm Floyd, but given Patrick Chung's struggles against tight ends the past two weeks, the Patriots will likely seek to start off with Browner on Gates.  Whoever the Patriots employ, stifling Gates will be the top key to keeping San Diego out of the end zone.

Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork vs. Corey Liuget

The Patriots had largely shored up their interior protection last week before regressing against Green Bay's Mike Daniels.  The tandem of Connolly and Stork was particularly poor, conceding eight total pressures en route to a combined minus-6.1 pass-blocking grade.

This week, the Pats are again facing an underrated interior rusher in Liuget.  Though technically a 3-4 defensive end, Liuget kicks inside when San Diego shifts to nickel and dime personnel.  Among players at his position, he ranks eighth in pass-rushing productivity.

Tom Brady's superb pocket instincts allow him to handle edge pressure, something he proved last week until the final offensive play.  But few things submarine New England's offense quicker than consistent interior pushes, so Connolly and Stork will need to bounce back against the Chargers 3-technique to ensure that Brady has an opportunity to exploit a suspect secondary.

X-Factor: Akeem Ayers

New England's four-man pass rush has been abysmal since Chandler Jones' injury.  When the Pats shift to a conservative scheme, as they did much of last week, the lack of significant one-on-one talent shows up.

However, while Rivers may warrant similar respect as Rodgers, the Chargers' depleted offensive line should provide a softer matchup for the undermanned Pats edge-rushers.  Ayers, who has accrued three sacks in five games, ranks 14th among 3-4 outside linebackers in pass-rushing productivity since arriving in Foxborough and could benefit most from the matchup.

Rushing from the right side, Ayers figures to primarily draw San Diego left tackle King Dunlap.  The lead-footed Dunlap is a mauler in the run-blocking game, but his lack of lateral agility could make him susceptible to a long-armed speed-rusher like Ayers.  Among tackles this season, Dunlap ranks 45th out of 57 qualifiers in terms of pass-blocking efficiency.

This week's game plan figures to employ more blitzes from Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins, so the four-man front will not need to carry the pass rush.  But the linebackers cannot supply the sole source of pressure, so someone like Ayers needs to provide a consistent complement.

Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

Though not on the same level of overall talent, the Chargers possess much of the same tool kit the Packers used to knock off the Patriots last week.  Like Green Bay, San Diego possesses elite quarterback play, a deep offensive skill position arsenal and solid speed throughout the defense.

However, the Chargers do not have the same depth and versatility throughout their defense, meaning that New England's offense should return to its high-scoring ways after a brief lapse at Lambeau.  In particular, a glaring lack of size in the secondary could allow Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell to enjoy big games.

Still, playing a prime-time contest at Qualcomm Stadium is far from an easy situation.  Playing their third road game in four weeks, it's very possible that a road-weary Pats squad comes out flat and falls behind a desperate Chargers squad. 

But that would be out of character with the mentally tough squad that has emerged over the past 10 weeks.  While Sunday night's game is no walkover, the Patriots are the superior team and figure to turn in a complete 60-minute effort based on their track record thus far this season.

Prediction: Patriots 36, Chargers 29

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).