Players Who Have Emerged as the Biggest X-Factors of the 2014-15 NBA Season
With nearly a quarter of the NBA slate behind us, all the once-nascent narratives—of which teams and stars stand the best chance of leaving a permanent mark on the 2014-15 season—are finally starting to take shape.
The big dogs? They’ll have their days in the slideshow sun. Today is about honoring the X-factors—the dudes whose surges and swoons could make or break their teams’ fortunes.
We’ve come up with 10 such players. All of them from legitimate playoff hopefuls; all of them with a little something to prove.
Now, there’s bound to be some contention over what, exactly, constitutes an X-factor. That’s the beauty of this list: Each of these guys are bellwethers in their own, unique right. From draft-day snubs to wily vets eager for a shot at a championship—you’ll get a dose of them all.
You’re not liable to find any superstars on this list. What you will find, though, are plenty of players capable of making or breaking a game, playoff series or even a championship.
Let’s meet these intrepid gentlemen, shall we?
Shabazz Napier, PG, Miami Heat
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The tale is as old as basketball itself: Collegiate kid puts upstart team on his shoulders and carries it to a national championship, only to be dismissed as a destined also-ran once the next level comes calling.
Ask Shabazz Napier about it.
On a Miami Heat team quietly trying to re-chart its course in the wake of LeBron James’ departure, Napier has emerged as a capable backup with the potential for more. Should it hold, his 40 percent three-point clip alone will be enough to guarantee key bench minutes as the season wears on.
Fending off Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole to become Miami’s point guard of the future won’t be easy. But if there’s one rookie you know will scratch and claw for every speck of respect, it’s the pint-sized scrapper from Roxbury, Massachusetts.
Courtney Lee, SG, Memphis Grizzlies
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The knock on the Memphis Grizzlies has held for some time now: For all their defensive dominance, they just don’t have the kind of consistent scoring conducive to becoming a genuine contender.
Don’t look now, but those same Grizzlies are currently ranked eighth in offensive efficiency, and Courtney Lee is no small reason why.
Through his team’s first 14 games, the veteran guard has put up career numbers in player efficiency, true-shooting percentage and three-point shooting—the last of which has helped Memphis maintain its balanced attack.
Long lauded for his abilities as a perimeter defender, Lee’s scoring has helped him forge a unique niche alongside fellow stopper Tony Allen and ahead of longtime veteran Vince Carter.
It stands to reason that Lee’s 53 percent three-point clip is bound to steer toward the mean at some point. But as an outside threat capable of feasting off dishes from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, Lee could be the missing piece these Grizzlies have long searched for.
Lou Williams, G, Toronto Raptors
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Compared to some of the summer’s sexier trades and signings, the Toronto Raptors nabbing longtime sixth-man-extraordinaire Lou Williams from the Atlanta Hawks didn’t exactly register on the sizzle scale.
What has Williams done so far? Only help anchor the league’s sixth-most productive bench, per HoopStats.com, while putting up career numbers aplenty to boot.
In Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raps already boasted one of the league’s most dynamic backcourt duos. Add Williams and the heady-steady Greivis Vasquez into the mix and you have enough changes of pace to send teams’ heads a-spinning.
With DeRozan expected to miss at least a month after tearing a groin muscle, Williams’ bench punch becomes even more crucial. The hope being that Toronto weathers the storm well enough to not only remain in the hunt for the East’s No. 1 seed, but to better prepare its second unit for playoff prime time.
Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors
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Finally, someone taller than 6’5”! We promise we’re not height-ist.
As a four-year cornerstone for Tom Izzo at Michigan State, Draymond Green garnered a well-worn reputation as a jack-of-all-trades. Shooting (albeit with somewhat limited range), passing, rebounding, defense—Green did it all.
It took a few years, but Green has translated that skill set nicely to the next level, emerging as the quintessential glue guy and regular starter in David Lee’s absence.
In fact, there are plenty who believe Lee’s eventual return shouldn’t compel first-year head coach Steve Kerr to abandon what works. Say, our old friend Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report:
"Defensively, a canyon sits between Lee and Green. The former is a liability who pulls Bogut off rim-protecting duties to guard his back or take on the power forward matchups he can’t handle. Green is a defensive weapon with the quickness, strength, instincts and smarts to harass players at all five positions.
To put that another way, the Warriors have to work harder defensively with Lee on the floor. Green makes their life easier when his number is called.
"
Of all the guys on this list, no one checks off more X-factor boxes than Green. Not only does his skill set make him an indispensable two-way weapon; his status as a starter stands to be one of the most compelling narratives of the Warriors’ season.
Brandon Knight, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
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With so many elite-level point guards peppering the NBA landscape, it was easy to forget about Brandon Knight—a guy who left the University of Kentucky buoyed by enough hype to fuel a Presidential campaign.
For some, Knight’s ascendance was a long, often painful process. For the Milwaukee Bucks, the mantra is a bit different: better late than never.
Behind Knight’s ever-improving play, the Bucks—against pretty much every preseason prediction put forward—have somehow managed to assert themselves as a legitimate playoff hopeful in a still-weak Eastern Conference.
The good news: After a sneaky-surprising run a season ago, Knight’s early returns this year are gradual enough to assuage those worried about a coming crash. If anything, improvements from young studs such as Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Henson will only make Knight look—and play—even better.
Having one of the league’s all-time great point guards as your coach can’t hurt, either.
Terrence Jones, PF, Houston Rockets
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For as potent and powerful as the Houston Rockets have been during the James Harden-Dwight Howard era, one question has loomed larger than the rest: Who, exactly, should be this team’s long-term power forward?
Slowly but surely, Terrence Jones is beginning to answer that call once and for all. Or was, before nerve damage in his leg sidelined the third-year forward indefinitely.
Jones had been a revelation this season (albeit in a small sample size), charting career-highs nearly across the board and steadily developing into the kind of perimeter threat that the three-happy Rockets are always looking for.
Just how valuable had Jones been? Per NBA.com (media stats require subscription), the Rockets were registering a plus-minus of plus-14 with the former Kentucky product on the floor—a whopping four points and change ahead of the next in line (Howard).
If Jones can return to the fray in a timely manner and recapture his status as an up-and-coming star, the sky's the limit for these Rockets.
Dion Waiters, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
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We’ve pretty much run the gamut on X-Factors-who-are-or-have-also-been-pleasant-surprises.
This is the opposite of that.
There are few NBA players who better personify the term “enigma” better than the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Dion Waiters. Two years ago, the Cavs drafted Waiters with the No. 4 pick fully expecting he and blossoming phenom Kyrie Irving to seize the mantle of the league’s best young backcourt.
The two have shown flashes of said superlative. But flashes do not a legendary duo make.
With Shawn Marion having taken over the helm of starting 2-guard, Waiters’ future in Cleveland has never seemed so uncertain. It certainly doesn’t help that the mercurial wing is posting career lows in field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and player efficiency, among many, many other categories.
At his best, Waiters has the potential to be a kind of poor man’s Dwyane Wade—a ruthless slasher capable of breaking defenses down whenever Irving, LeBron James and Kevin Love find themselves shrouded by defenders.
That Waiters could help propel Cleveland straight into the Finals. It’s the other one we—and Cavs fans everywhere—are worried about.
Brandan Wright, Dallas Mavericks
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Seventy-five percent. That’s the true-shooting percentage Dallas Mavericks backup big Brandan Wright is currently putting up. That’s cartoonish.
Not only that, Wright’s doing it while logging the most minutes per game of his eight-year NBA career.
We’ve always known Wright to be an invaluable bench sparkplug; you don’t author two consecutive seasons of plus-20 PERs without being, you know, serviceable. But it’s the energy Wright brings at both ends of the floor that’s made him such a huge piece of Rick Carlisle’s masterpiece of a puzzle—a kind of hyper-weird Tyson Chandler analog.
That is huge. Particularly when you’re other two primary backups are the washed-up Charlie Villanueva and the 6’10”-in-stelletos Greg Smith.
Wright has never been—and will likely never be—a reliable offensive weapon. What he does do, though, and just about better than any other bench big in the league, is make the utmost of every second he’s on the floor. Even when playoff time renders your rotation choker-taut, that’s an invaluable chess piece to have.
Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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"Biggest X-Factors," "Biggest Surprises," "Biggest Storylines"—the number of slideshows that could include the Chicago Bulls’ Jimmy Butler as their principal subjects has, like his legend, grown gaudier by the game.
Butler hasn’t merely been a “pleasant surprise”; he’s been a straight-up revelation for Tom Thibodeau and the suddenly surging Bulls. Not only does Butler’s lockdown defense fit Thibodeau’s schemes to a T, his improved offensive game has also more than made up for the thus-far spotty play of the recently returned Derrick Rose.
Still, a pair of questions linger. In order of ascending importance: Will Butler’s play come crashing down to earth sooner than later? And will his much-publicized spat with the Bulls' front office guarantee his departure next summer?
Both will be answered in due time. Until then, Bulls fans can take happy solace in their bearing witness to a true star on the rise. Because when you get that kind of praise from Thibodeau—a guy who often seems like he’s never hugged a single human being in all his life—it has to be true. From a recent interview with ESPNChicago.com’s Nick Friedell:
"He's been incredible, He's a star, and he does it on both ends of the floor. He's just an amazing player. We've had him play the point, we've had him play the 2, the 3, and tonight he played the 4. And he hasn't had any opportunity to practice the 4.
So he just got out there, he's smart, he's tough, he does whatever the team needs, and he found a way to help lead us into coming back and having a shot at the end.
"
Incredible? Perhaps. A player who, should he continue apace with his gangbusters play, might be what puts the Bulls over the championship top? It sure looks it.
Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings
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When the Sacramento Kings decided to unload promising third-year floor general Isaiah Thomas to the already guard-stocked Phoenix Suns (for little more than flotsam at that), many wondered whether the long-moribund franchise had officially lost its mind.
Enter Darren Collison, the speedy-but-flawed veteran point guard coming off his fourth NBA tour in six seasons.
A sneaky-clever way of assuring another trip to the top of the lottery? More like sneakiest move of the offseason.
Led by the sensational DeMarcus Cousins and with Collison’s steady hand at the helm, the Kings have emerged as one of the league’s most compelling young teams.
Whether Collison can maintain his myriad career clips will go a long way in determining whether these Kings are for real or whether they still need a few more pieces in place—even, perhaps, at the point guard spot itself—before being considered a viable threat in the West.
